New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces game 4 prediction and odds: 2023 WNBA Finals

The 2023 WNBA Finals move to the Big Apple with the defending champions from Las Vegas a win away from back-to-back titles. Liberty were beaten badly twice in Nevada but back at home, they will feel they can still turn things around. Here are our New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces predictions and the latest team news.

Liberty vs Aces scaled
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces – game predictions

It’s a do-or-die scenario for the Liberty from now on with the Aces holding a 2-1 lead in this best of five Finals.

Prediction 1: New York Liberty over 83.5 points @ -140 (1.71)  

The Liberty scored 87 points in game 3 of the Finals after making some very effective adjustments to their rotation. New York average 91.6 points per game at home this season so they often go for 84 or more.

The Liberty scored well above 83.5 points in all of their last 3 matches vs the Aces too so we back them to continue that trend.

Prediction 2: A’ja Wilson over 23.5 points @ -125 (1.80)

With our next Liberty vs Aces prediction we look at the 2-time MVP (2020 and 2022) A’ja Wilson. With many of her teammates falling injured in recent days it seems A’ja’s will be left alone to fight the Liberty inside the post in game 4.

The absence of injured centers Parker and Stokes should increase A’ja shooting attempts significantly. She struggled in game 3 when she scored ‘only’ 16 points on 25% shooting. A’ja Wilson will make adjustments now though and we expect her to attack the rim more often as she did in game 2 when she scored 26 points.

These odds were correct at the time of writing.

Liberty vs Aces preview – will Chelsea’s injury turn the tables in these Finals?

Liberty were decisive and aggressive in game 3 to extend their season. They still trail 1-2 in these finals so from now on only wins can help them. Can the Aces win one more match without their main playmaker Chelsea Gray?

New York Liberty news, injuries, and starting lineups

New York Liberty stayed alive in the Finals with a decisive 87-73 win in game 3. It was on the defensive end where Liberty won this match. Making adjustments and shifting the duties defensively caught the Aces by surprise.

Ionescu continued to struggle shooting the ball, she is yet to score more than 9 points in these Finals, but she produced 11 assists in game 3. Jonquel Jones went for 27 points, while the reigning MVP Breanna Stewart added 20 points and 12 rebounds.

Having so much strength in depth and relying on their home crowd the Liberty are riding high on confidence right now and they will be all-out-attack in game 4 as they try to force a decisive final game in Las Vegas later in the week.

Liberty Injury Report:

Han Xu (C) – out

Liberty Starting Lineup:

Courtney Vandersloot, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones

Las Vegas Aces news, injuries, and starting lineups

The Aces failed to secure the title in game 3 and they not only gave Liberty hope but some bad injury news meaning the dynamics have shifted dramatically in this Finals series. The 2022 Finals MVP Chelsea Gray was playing light out in the first 2 games of the finals but she got hurt in game 3 and her season is over.

This is a major issue for the Aces as they don’t have another gifted playmaker. Kelsey Plum will likely resume this responsibility from now on but this will take away from her scoring and she has gone for 20+ points in all of the 3 Finals games so far.

The problems in the paint are growing too. The two main centers of the Aces Parker and Stokes will be absent from game 4. This will likely see the Sixth Player of the Year Alysha Clark having to battle Liberty’s stars Jones and Stewart inside the post.

All these issues seriously weaken the Aces and the expectations are that they will struggle to cope with the Liberty’s versatility in game 4.

Lib vs Aces 2 scaled
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Aces Injury Report:

Chelsea Gray PG – ruled out

Kiah Stokes C – ruled out

Candace Parker C – ruled out

Aces Starting Lineup:

Kelsey Plum, Kierstan Bell, Jackie Young, A’ja Wilson, Alysha Clark

Aces vs Liberty head-to-head record in 2023

  • 15.10.23 WNBA New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces 87-73 [WNBA Finals game 3]
  • 11.10.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 104-76 [WNBA Finals game 2]
  • 08.10.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 99-82 [WNBA Finals game 1]
  • 28.08.23 WNBA New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces 94-85
  • 18.08.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 88-75
  • 16.08.23 CF Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 63-82
  • 06.08.23 WNBA New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces 99-61
  • 30.06.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 98-81

Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty game details

  • Date & Time: Wednesday, October 18, 2023, 01:00 a.m. GMT / 08:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York
  • Where to watch the match: Sky Sports Arena (UK/Ireland), ESPN (USA), Hulu TV, fuboTV, or the WNBA App/League Pass

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.