Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat prediction and odds – 31/10/2023

This Monday night in the NBA 2023-24 season features the Miami Heat on the road to renew their rivalry with the Milwaukee Bucks. Both teams are coming off a loss and looking to rebound from the weekend.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat – game predictions

The Bucks are a 5-point home favorite with a total of 223 points.

Prediction 1: Bucks -5 @ -110 (1.91)

The playoffs were a different story, but the Heat did lose by 29 and 8 points in their February trips to Milwaukee last season. The Bucks are coming off a game Sunday night where Damian Lillard shot 2-of-12 from the field for 6 points, equaling how many turnovers (6) he had too. The Bucks had 23 turnovers against Atlanta. Look for them to bounce back in this game. The Heat have not looked as sharp as they did in their spirited playoff run as an underdog, and by keeping so many of the same players from last year, they have little room for growth other than being the same irritant to Eastern Conference playoff teams that can win a playoff series on the experience of coach Erik Spoelstra and clutch play of Jimmy Butler. But in a regular-season game in October, we’ll back the Bucks to win by more than 5 points.

Prediction 2: Over 223 @ -110 (1.91)

We mentioned Miami does not score many points, but the Bucks seem to bring out the best in this team as 4-of-5 playoff meetings between the two last season were over 223 points (usually by 10-plus points too). The Bucks just allowed 127 points at home to Atlanta last night, and the offense will be looking to bounce back after a poor shooting game for key starters. The Bucks also like to work on their 3-point shooting against Miami, and the over was 27-16 (62.8%) in games where Milwaukee was a home favorite last year. The over was also 19-13 (59.4%) in games where Miami was a road underdog last year. Let’s take the over and enjoy the show this evening.

First rematch after shocking playoff upset

The Bucks and Heat have met 3-of-4 postseasons with the Heat upsetting the Bucks twice now, including last year as the No. 8 seed when the Bucks were No. 1 in the Eastern Conference. Even in the games Giannis played, the Heat beat the Bucks on the scoreboard and showed a lot of resiliency with Jimmy Butler playing incredible basketball with 37.6 points per game. We’ll see what he has this year for the Bucks.

Milwaukee Bucks news, injuries, and starting lineups

Some teams just have a bad night, but it was still surprising to see the Bucks struggle as much as they did with Atlanta at home. Khris Middleton should be back in the mix after taking the last game off. Damian Lillard can’t possibly shoot it any worse than he did Sunday, and Giannis should still have a big game as long as he stays healthy, which has been a problem in the playoff series Milwaukee lost to Miami in 2020 and 2023.

Milwaukee Bucks injury report:

  • SF Khris Middleton (injury management) – Probable

Milwaukee Bucks starting lineup:

Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton, Malik Beasley, Brook Lopez, Giannis Antetokounmpo

Miami Heat news, injuries, and starting lineups

Last season, Miami ranked 30th (last) in points per game. Through 3 games this season, the Heat rank 29th in points per game, so is that progress? Miami is in the third leg of a tough road trip, but it will have to find a way to keep up with the scoring capability of the Bucks. At least Jimmy Butler is expected to play after missing Saturday’s 106-90 loss in Minnesota.

Miami Heat injury report:

  • PF Caleb Martin (knee) – Doubtful
  • PF Kevin Love (shoulder) – Probable
  • SG Josh Richardson (foot) – Doubtful
  • SF Haywood Highsmith (knee) – Out

Miami Heat starting lineup:

Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Bam Adebayo

Bucks vs Heat head to head record

The Heat beat the Bucks in 5 games in the first round of the playoffs last season. Here are the results from the last 5 meetings:

  • 26/4/2023: Heat won 128-126 in Milwaukee
  • 24/4/2023: Heat won 119-114 in Miami
  • 22/4/2023: Heat won 121-99 in Miami
  • 19/4/2023: Heat lost 138-122 in Milwaukee
  • 16/4/2023: Heat won 130-117 in Milwaukee

Key game details

  • Date & Time: October 31, 2023, 00:00 GMT
  • Venue: Fiserv Forum – Milwaukee, WI
  • Where to watch match in UK: TNT Sports 3, NBA League Pass, or other live stream

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