NBA Player Props Tonight – Top Bets to Try

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These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

With the 2023 NBA Playoffs in full swing now we decided to bring you some exciting new betting opportunities. From now on until the final game of the season, we will be giving you 3 free NBA Playoffs predictions every day. All will be on players props and to find out more about our picks for today, plus what players props are, read below.

The Best NBA Player Props Today

Duncan Robinson Over 1.5 3-PT FG

Our first NBA players props prediction tonight focuses on Miami’s sharpshooter Duncan Robinson and more specifically his chances to cover his 3-PT field goals spread in game 5 of the NBA Finals. Robinson did that in all of the last 3 games vs the Nuggets.

He also had 2 or more 3-PT FGs in 5 of the 7 Eastern Conference finals vs the Celtics. Clearly, Robinson is shooting at a great level in these playoffs and we can’t see why he won’t be able to cover his spread now. Especially, with Miami trying hard to extend their season a bit more as they trail Denver 1-3.

Odds: 7/10 (-143)

Christian Braun Under 0.5 Turnovers

Our second NBA players props tip looks at Denver’s rookie Christian Braun. Braun has been a constant part of the rotation in his first-ever postseason but he plays on average just under 12 minutes so his time on the court is limited. This is helpful in terms of preventing Braun from committing turnovers. Braun had 1 turnover in each of the first 3 games of the NBA Finals. He had none in game 4 though. Also, Braun didn’t commit a turnover in any of the 4 Western Conference finals games vs the Lakers.

Considering how little the ball spends in his hands we’re comfortable to believe that Braun will stay focused and avoid going above his turnovers spread in game 5.

Odds: 4/6 (-150)

Jamal Murray Under 8.5 Assists

Our final free betting tip for game 5 is that Denver’s star point guard Jamal Murray won’t cover his assists spread in game 5 of the Finals. This is a slightly risky prediction considering Murray had 10+ assists in all 4 games of the NBA Finals so far.

However, he’s averaging only 7.1 assists during the postseason despite his average for the Finals being 10.2. During the regular season, he averaged only 6.2 assists. We believe that Denver’s most prolific scorer will focus more on what he does best and score loads of points in the potentially title-winning game 5. Naturally, if Murray is scoring a lot of buckets his assists numbers are likely to fall down close to his average for this season.

Odds: 4/5 (-125)

Our Guide to NBA Player Specials – NBA Players Prop Betting Explained

We’ll get specific now! While you can see a bunch of free NBA betting tips already, let us explain in detail what player prop bets are.

How It Works

A player prop bet is basically a wager on a specific player’s statistics for a specific game or entire 2023 NBA Playoffs series. The most common players’ props are wagered on a game-to-game basis but there are options to pick over/under wager for a player’s entire playoff run, or an entire series.

The main advantage of betting on NBA Players Props Tonight instead of full-game wagers is that there are far fewer variables that could go wrong. Wagering on teams one needs to consider all players on the court when placing a bet, picking a player prop means that one needs to worry only about a single player. For example, Ja Morant scored 45 points, easily covering his spread, against the Lakers in Game 3 and yet the Grizzlies lost.

Types of NBA Players Props

The most common player prop is over/under on how many points a player will score in a certain match. Of course, there are the same over/under options for practically every official stat out there: assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, 3PT FG made, turnovers, and even +/-. There are also players props for a double-double, a triple-double, or points + rebounds/assists total. Generally, the choice is so rich and the combinations endless that many bettors start to focus more and more on the players’ props markets.

Extra Notes

We want to stress that there are no players’ props for every player on each team. On average, a bookmaker will select 5 players from each team and give them over/under odds for a certain category.

Our Tips for NBA Prop Betting

Finally, we wish to give you some tips on how to successfully make your own picks when it comes to picking your own NBA players props today. This is how we do it, anyway.

Current Form

Naturally, the most important factor we analyse when we select our NBA Players Props Tonight offers is the form of the player we chose to back. This is especially important now in the playoffs when teams match for the entire series, so certain players will have good and others bad matchups. For example, it’s pointless to blindly back Donovan Mitchell to go over his points spread every game vs the Knicks just based on his regular season average if clearly, he’s struggling to score against their defence in 2-3 consecutive games. That’s why we analyse every players form in that certain series closely before we decide to back them.

Circumstances

We’re talking about picking NBA Players Props Tonight during the NBA Playoffs here, so the circumstances regarding at what stage any series plays a vital role in selecting players’ props. For instance, the main scorer of a team that is 1-3 down in a series and faces elimination is far more likely to go over their points spread than someone from a team that leads 3-1. If the circumstances hint at desperation, as inevitably they do for every team in the playoffs then this should be factored in when one selects their players’ props. We always do that ourselves.

Grouping Player Props Bets

We believe that grouping two or even three NBA Players Props is a very useful strategy. For example, if we think that James Harden will go over his assist spread then we will seriously consider also Joel Embiid to go over his scoring spread.

General Outcome

We never dismiss what we think the general outcome of a certain match will be. For example, if we think the Lakers will be in for a blowout win and most of their regulars will sit out the 4th quarter then we’ll probably stay away from LeBron James going over his points spread. Or, if we believe that the key to getting the win in a certain matchup is how well both teams rebound we’ll seriously consider the 2 best rebounders at each end to go over their rebound spread.

In general, we think there is huge potential in betting on NBA Players specials and we will be giving you 3 free betting tips every day from now until the end of the last NBA game of the 2022-23 season.

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