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The Houston Texans are in search of their third consecutive victory as they travel to Georgia to take on the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday.
Houston (2-2) enters the contest on a high note after dominating Pittsburgh 30-6 in Week 4. Atlanta (2-2) returns to the United States after losing in London to Jacksonville 23-7.
Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans – game predictions
Contents
Note: Most sportsbooks include overtime when grading the following two picks.
Prediction 1: Desmond Ridder over 25.5 pass attempts @ -105 (1.95)
I’ve been successfully rolling with the overs for Desmond Ridder’s pass attempts over the last few weeks. After first taking him at this total (25.5), the books raised it to 28.5 last week. He’s back to 25.5 despite consistently averaging 29.75 pass attempts this season and 33.66 in the previous three outings.
The Cincinnati product has easily surpassed 25.5 attempts for three weeks in a row and has eclipsed it 75% of the time this season. In eight career games, Ridder has thrown for more than 25.5 attempts 87.5% of the time (7-of-8).
Ridder pass attempts (2023-2024)
- Week 4 @ JAX: 31 attempts
- Week 3 @ DET: 38 attempts
- Week 2 vs. GB: 32 attempts
- Week 1 vs. CAR: 18 attempts
The only time Ridder didn’t beat the threshold was in Week 1 against Carolina because of the game script. The Panthers (0-4) are the worst team in the NFL and the only winless team. Atlanta didn’t have to throw the ball since they led for practically the entirety of the fourth quarter and comfortably won 24-10.
Houston has beaten its prior two opponents by an average of 22 points, so the second-year signal caller should be forced to throw a lot again this week.
FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Ridder to record 29.9 attempts just like last week, 4.4 more than what his total is set at. Dimers’ analytics gives the prop a 63.7% chance of hitting the over.
The -105 odds offered by BetMGM are favorable due to other books, such as DraftKings, listing him at -130 to hit the over 25.5 attempts. PointsBet and FanDuel have Ridder’s total set at 26.5 with the same odds.
Prediction 2: Dameon Pierce over 12.5 carries @ -130 (1.77)
Dameon Pierce has eclipsed 12.5 rush attempts for three weeks straight. Last week, Pierce resumed his role as the team’s bellcow with 24 totes of the rock.
The only time Pierce failed to reach the mark with 11 carries was in the team’s first game, a 25-9 loss to Baltimore. The negative game script forced Houston to abandon the run.
Pierce game log
- Week 4 vs. PIT: 24 carries
- Week 3 @ JAX: 14 carries
- Week 2 vs. IND: 15 carries
- Week 1 @ BAL: 11 carries
The University of Florida product is averaging 16 carries per game this season and faces an Atlanta defense that ranks 18th against the run (114.5 yards per game).
With Houston in good form and oddsmakers predicting this contest to be close, the game script should lead to Pierce receiving a healthy amount of rush attempts.
Atlanta hasn’t blown out a single team this season, and all four of their opponents had their top rusher carry the ball more than 12 times. Opposing lead backs are averaging 17.5 carries against the Falcons.
Carries for lead backs against Atlanta
- Week 4 @ JAX: 20 carries for Travis Etienne
- Week 3 @ DET: 17 carries for Jahmyr Gibbs
- Week 2 vs. GB: 15 carries for AJ Dillon
- Week 1 vs. CAR: 18 carries for Miles Sanders
FantasyPros’ model projects Pierce to have 15.9 carries on Sunday. Dimers’ model gives Pierce a 69.2% chance to hit the over on his total.
BetMGM’s price of -130 is excellent, with books like DraftKings featuring Pierce at -150 (60% implied odds) to eclipse 12.5 attempts. FanDuel and PointsBet have their totals at 13.5 and at -115 for the over.
Atlanta Falcons vs Houston Texans odds
Atlanta is listed as a 1.5-point favorite over Houston. The game total is set at 41.5.
Falcons vs Texans preview – Who climbs to 3-2?
Neither team made the playoffs in 2022-2023, but moving to a game above .500 improves their chances.
Atlanta form, news and injuries
The Falcons are 1-3 against the spread this season.
Falcons injury report
- No players carry injury designations heading into Sunday.
Houston form, news and injuries
The Texans are 2-2 ATS this campaign.
Texans injury report
- DT Maliek Collins (abdomen) is questionable.
- CB Shaquill Griffin (calf) is questionable.
- LB Jake Hansen (neck) is questionable.
- WR John Metchie (illness) is questionable.
- LT Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable.
- LB Christian Harris (concussion) is out.
- T Josh Jones (hand) is out.
Falcons vs Texans head-to-head record
| 10/06/2019 | Atlanta Falcons | 32 | @ | Houston Texans | 53 |
| 10/04/2015 | Houston Texans | 21 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 48 |
| 12/04/2011 | Atlanta Falcons | 10 | @ | Houston Texans | 17 |
| 09/30/2007 | Houston Texans | 16 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 26 |
| 11/30/2003 | Atlanta Falcons | 13 | @ | Houston Texans | 17 |
Key match details
- Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 8 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA
- Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports, FuboTV or other live stream
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