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Week 5 of the NFL season got off to an entertaining start after Chicago’s dominating 40-20 win over Washington. Bears’ receiver DJ Moore led the offense with 239 yards and three touchdowns en route to giving his team their first victory of the campaign.
Carolina remains the only winless team in the league. There are plenty of mouthwatering matchups this week, headlined by San Francisco hosting Dallas.
We’ll provide one game prediction and two player props in this article.
NFL Week 5 predictions: Spread pick
Note: The odds for these picks were correct at the time of writing.
New York Jets (+3) vs. Denver Broncos @ -125 (1.8)
This is a revenge game for the New York Jets. During the offseason, Broncos head coach Sean Payton publicly ripped former Denver coach Nathaniel Hackett’s performance last season, saying his tenure was “one of the worst coaching jobs in the history of the NFL.”
This caused multiple members of the Jets, including Aaron Rodgers and coach Robert Saleh, to defend their coordinator. Ironically enough, the Broncos are 1-4, and last season through four games, Hackett’s Broncos were 2-2.
While Rodgers would’ve likely handled the Broncos this week with ease, Zach Wilson and the team enter the game in good form after narrowly losing 23-20 to the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Two missed holding calls, including an obvious defensive holding against Sauce Gardner, prevented Wilson from getting the ball back with a chance to tie or win.
Denver was close to going 0-4 but came back trailing 28-7 to beat a winless (at the time) Bears team 31-28.
The Broncos defense has been putrid. It ranks last in the league in total defense and in many other categories.
Broncos defensive ranks
- Yards allowed per game: 461.5 (last)
- Points per game: 37.5 (last)
- Rush yards per game: 176 (last)
- Rushing yards per play: 5.6 (31st)
- Pass yards per game 285.5 (30th)
- QBR allowed: 133.4 (last)
- 3rd down conversion %: 45.2 (24th)
- DVOA (Defense-adjusted value over average) per play: Last
- EPA (Expected points added) per play: Last
The Jets might be 1-3 but have faced a difficult schedule so far, with three of the four teams being playoffs teams last campaign (Buffalo, Dallas and Kansas City).
The “easiest” opponent New York has faced is New England, and barely lost 15-10. Denver will be by far their worst opposition, which has lost to Las Vegas (1-3), Washington (2-3) and Miami (3-1).
According to Covers, the four teams Denver has played rank 24th, 27th, 30th, and 31st in EPA allowed.
Miami shredded Denver on the ground in their historic 70-20 win in week 3. It just so happens that Breece Hall (Jets running back), who leads the NFL in yards per rush (9.7), won’t be on a pitch count this week, according to Saleh.
This should pose plenty of problems for Denver. With Zach Wilson playing better in week 4, it shouldn’t be difficult for him to perform fairly well against the Denver defense.
The alternate spread (+3) of New York to cover holds excellent value at -125 thanks to other bookmakers such as BetMGM listing New York at -135.
NFL Week 5 predictions: Player props
Note: All wagers written about in this article include overtime when graded by most sportsbooks.
DeAndre Hopkins to have 50 or more receiving yards @ -136 (1.74)
If there was a game for a DeAndre Hopkins breakout, it’s Sunday against Indianapolis. The Pro Bowl wideout enjoyed a debut in week 1 with 7 receptions for 65 yards on 13 targets before getting hurt and struggling for the next few weeks. Hopkins played through the pain but hasn’t been targeted as often.
Now, he carries a fully healthy designation going into his most favorable matchup of the season against a Colts team that ranks fifth-worst against the pass (263.8 yards per game). WR1s have feasted so far against their secondary.
WRs vs the Indianapolis Colts ⬇️
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 6, 2023
According to FantasyPros, the Clemson product will line up primarily against Juju Brents, who’s allowed a 134.2 passer rating to quarterbacks and an 80% catch rate, as well as Dallis Flowers (98.1 passer rating and 61.1% catch rate).
Hopkins ranks fifth among wide receivers in threat rate (37%) and seventh in targets per route run (29.8%).
Indianapolis vs. WR1s this season
- Week 1: Calvin Ridley: 8 rec, 101 yards, TD
- Week 2: Nico Collins: 7 rec, 146 yds, TD
- Week 3: Zay Flowers: 8 rec, 48 yds
- Week 4: Puka Nacua: 9 rec, 163 yds, TD
BettingPros projects Hopkins to record about 58.6 receiving yards. FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Hopkins to have 66.8 receiving yards, about 17 yards more needed than his total.
The -136 odds (FanDuel) for Hopkins to record 50 or more receiving yards hold value thanks to DraftKings listing him at -155 with the same total.
Jake Moody over 6.5 kicking points @ -130 (1.77)
The 49ers kicker started the year off hot, successfully converting 3-of-3 field goals in each of the first three weeks. He also easily surpassed 6.5 kicking points with 12 in all three of those outings. On the season, he’s recorded at least 12 points in 75% of contests.
Last week, he had five points thanks to five extra points. The 49ers offense was rolling against Arizona but faces a much steeper test this Sunday against Dallas.
The Cowboys are allowing two field goals per game to opponents, which would give Moody six points, with him needing just one PAT to pass the 6.5 mark. The former Michigan Wolverine is averaging 10.25 kicking points per game, including 2.3 field goals and 3.5 PATs.
Moody kicking stats (H/T ESPN)
|2023 Regular season||Field goal stats||PATS|
|Sun 10/1||vs ARI|
|Thu 9/21||vs NYG|
|Sun 9/17||@ LAR|
|Sun 9/10||@ PIT|
|Regular season stats||0-0||4-4||2-2||2-2||1-1||57||100.0||9-9||–||14-14||41|
DraftKings’ odds of -130 are decent, with Caesars featuring him at -142.
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