NFL

NFL Week 4 predictions and betting tips

September 30, 2023 7:40 am
NFL Week 4 predictions and betting tips
Miami Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle reacts after running for a first down against the New England Patriots during second quarter at Gillette Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 17, 2023, in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (David Santiago/Miami Herald Photo by Icon Sport

Week 4 of the NFL has arrived and with it comes a three-week sample size of statistics used for analyzing player props. Certain players’ roles are being cemented in offenses, and we’re learning what teams were given too much offseason hype and who the contenders are.

In this article, we’ll provide three betting tips for player props in Week 4.

NFL Week 4 predictions: Player props

Note: The odds (American and decimal) for all three tips in this article were correct at the time of writing.

Jaylen Waddle over 59.5 receiving yards @ -110 (1.91)

While the Dolphins were making history, Jaylen Waddle was forced to sit out due to a concussion and watch from the sidelines. He’s healthy again and ready to explode in Week 4 against Buffalo, which he did last year in both meetings.

Waddle vs. Buffalo last season

  • Week 3: Four receptions for 102 yards (25.5 yards per rec)
  • Week 15: Three receptions for 116 yards (38 yards per rec)

Last year, the Alabama product was ninth in the NFL with 79.8 yards per game, which is 20.3 yards more than his total set at Bet365. Oddsmakers have the total points for the matchup between the Bills and Dolphins at 53.5, which means there should be fireworks and plenty of passing yards split between the two teams.

This season, Waddle has easily cleared 59.5 receiving yards in both starts and is averaging 82 yards per outing. Against the Jags in Miami’s opener, he recorded 78 receiving yards, and in Week 2, he had 86 receiving yards against the Patriots. He left late in the game after being hit in the head, resulting in him missing Week 3.

Bet365’s line of -110 is eye-popping thanks to other books like Caesars listing him at -148 with 59.68% implied odds that he’ll clear the 59.5-yard mark. For context, DraftKings has him at -145 to reach the over.

FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Waddle to record 75.1 receiving yards. BettingPros’ model projects him at 67.9 yards, while Dimers.com’s analytics give him a 64.8% chance to go over 60.5 yards, a separate line on FanDuel at -114.

Josh Palmer over 3.5 receptions @ -135 (1.74)

We might’ve seen this movie before if the scenario plays out similar to 2022-2023. Mike Williams unfortunately suffered a season-ending injury for the second-straight year, and Palmer will step into his role. Rookie Quentin Johnson does pose a threat to Palmer’s production, but I think the best time to take this line is now in case Johnson slowly garners more and more targets.

Justin Herbert is comfortable with Palmer, as showcased last season. When Williams got hurt in 2022, Palmer eclipsed 3.5 receptions in six of seven appearances. Last week, Palmer recorded four receptions on seven targets, with Williams playing a portion of the game before leaving in the first half.

The former Tennessee Volunteer, Palmer, will be lining up against a Las Vegas secondary that allowed Pittsburgh’s top two wide receivers, George Pickens and Allen Robinson, to eclipse 3.5 receptions in Week 3 with four apiece. This was with Kenny Pickett at quarterback, who is much worse than Herbert (a gunslinger).

The -135 odds on Caesars, William Hill and Bet365 are an excellent price, thanks to FanDuel listing Palmer at -152 (60.32% implied odds to hit the over).

FantasyPros’ model, along with its sources, projects Palmer to have 4.4 receptions.

Kendrick Bourne over 2.5 receptions @ -158 (1.63)

Kendrick Bourne has hit the over on his receptions total every week so far this season. He’s become the clear WR1 in New England and leads the team in yards (139), receptions (14), yards and targets (25). The target share compared to wide receivers isn’t even close, with Juju Smith-Schuster coming in second with 16.

Bourne’s receptions and targets 

  • Week 1 vs. PHI: 6 receptions on 11 targets
  • Week 2 vs. MIA: 4 receptions on 9 targets
  • Week 3 @ NYJ: 4 receptions on 5 targets

The Eastern Washington product is averaging 4.66 receptions per game and 8.33 targets per contest. Bourne faced a tough Jets pass defense last week, which lessened his targets (five), but he was still able to reach over 2.5 receptions.

This week, he’ll face a talented Dallas defense but without starting cornerback Trevon Diggs (out for the season). Against the Cardinals in Week 3 without Diggs, the Cowboys secondary allowed Josh Dobbs to complete 80.9% of his passes and surrendered four and five receptions to Rondale Moore and Marquis Brown.

FantasyPros’ model projects Bourne to have 3.6 receptions (1.1 more than the 2.5), while Dimers.com’s model gives the receiver a 72.6% chance to hit the over 2.5 reception mark.

The -158 odds provided by FanDuel for Bourne to hit the over certainly hold value, thanks to multiple other books having him at -170 and -180.

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