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The first NFL London bout features the Jacksonville Jaguars facing the Atlanta Falcons in Wembley Stadium on Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The Jaguars (1-2) are coming off a 37-17 loss to the Houston Texans. The Falcons (2-1) suffered their first loss of the season after losing 20-6 to Detroit in Week 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons – game predictions
Contents
Note: Most sportsbooks include overtime when grading the following two picks.
Prediction 1: Desmond Ridder over 28.5 pass attempts @ -112 (1.89)
Last week, I successfully recommended Ridder to have more than 25.5 pass attempts, and after throwing the ball 38 times, sportsbooks have adjusted the total to 28.5.
The 28.5 is still favorable, thanks to his history and the matchup against Jacksonville. Aside from his first-ever start, Ridder has thrown for at least 30 attempts in four of his last six games (66.66%). In his previous two outings, he’s attempted 32 and 38 attempts. This season, he’s averaging 29.33 per contest.
In week 1, he only attempted 18 passes, but that’s because the Falcons comfortably defeated the Panthers 24-10. The win came against rookie quarterback Bryce Young in his first start as a pro. The game script allowed Atlanta to repeatedly run the ball with Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
Head coach Arthur Smith prefers to model the offensive game plan around his two backs, but when he’s faced tougher opponents, he’s been forced to make Ridder toss the rock.
Ridder’s pass attempts vs. difficult opponents
- Week 16 (2022) @ Baltimore: 33 attempts
- Week 18 (2022) vs. Tampa Bay: 30 attempts
- Week 2 (2023) vs. Green Bay: 32 attempts
- Week 3 (2023) @ Detroit: 38 attempts
Jacksonville (the favorite) is coming off a loss, and if the game script follows what Vegas is predicting, Ridder will have to throw a lot.
FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Ridder to record 29.9 attempts, 1.4 more than what his total is set at.
BettingPros’ model projects Ridder to have 30.8, which is 2.3 more than the 28.5 set by FanDuel at -112 odds.
Prediction 2: Jaguars to cover (-2.5) alternate spread @ -127 (1.78)
This line would’ve been much steeper and probably not as enticing when the Jaguars opened early in the week as 3.5-point favorites. Now that it’s been moved to three points, buying half a point or taking the alternate spread is worth it.
Jacksonville is a better-rounded and more talented team than Atlanta. Last week’s performance against Houston was concerning, but it was a division rivalry game that tends to be unpredictable. Trevor Lawrence is a much better quarterback than Ridder and has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, including Travis Etienne, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram.
Atlanta’s success is reliant on their ground game, and it struggled last week against the Lions, another team filled with weapons on offense and with a better signal caller than Ridder. The Jaguars rank seventh in the NFL against the run, allowing just 84 yards per game, and if they continue that trend, a win should be on the horizon.
Lawrence and the Jaguars have played twice in London since 2021 and are accustomed to making the trip over and dealing with the time difference, having played 10 times total in the UK. The Falcons have played twice (2014 and 2021) but have a totally revamped roster. It only makes a tiny difference, but could give Jacksonville a slight edge.
The Action Network’s Bet Labs model gives Jacksonville a 65% chance to win, and if it comes down to a field goal, the 2.5-point alternate spread allows Doug Pederson and his squad to cover. The Jags should rebound after losing back-to-back games and know dropping to 1-3 hurts their chances of reaching the postseason again.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons odds
Oddsmakers feature the Jaguars as three-point favorites, and the over/under is set at 43.5.
Jaguars vs Falcons preview – Can Jacksonville rebound?
Jacksonville needs to win to get back to .500 on the season and avoid a three-game skid.
Jacksonville form, news and injuries
Jaguars injury report
- WR Zay Jones (knee) is questionable.
- WR Jamal Agnew (quadriceps) is questionable.
- DT Foley Fatukasi (shoulder) is questionable.
- DB Andrew Wingard (shoulder) is questionable.
- LB Josh Allen (shoulder) is questionable.
- LB Devin Lloyd (thumb) is out.
Atlanta form, news and injuries
The Falcons are also 1-2 ATS.
Falcons injury report
- RB Cordarrelle Patterson (RB) is questionable.
- WR Josh Ali (ankle) is doubtful.
Jaguars vs Falcons head-to-head record
| 11/28/2021 | Atlanta Falcons | 21 | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 |
| 12/22/2019 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 24 |
| 12/20/2015 | Atlanta Falcons | 23 | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 |
| 12/15/2011 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 41 |
| 09/16/2007 | Atlanta Falcons | 7 | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 |
| 12/28/2003 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 21 |
| 11/07/1999 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | @ | Atlanta Falcons | 7 |
| 12/22/1996 | Atlanta Falcons | 17 | @ | Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 |
Key match details
- Date & Time: Sunday, Oct. 1 at 9:30 a.m. ET
- Venue: Wembley Stadium in London, England
- Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports, FuboTV or other live stream
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