Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction and odds

The Houston Texans will seek to win back-to-back games for the first time since 2021 when the Pittsburgh Steelers visit NRG Stadium in an interesting Week 4 matchup. The Texans (1-2) upset the Jacksonville Jaguars last week, while the Steelers (2-1) knocked off the Las Vegas Raiders for their second straight win.

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars
Sep 24, 2023; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws a pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars during the first quarter at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon Sport

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers – game predictions

The Steelers are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 42 points. Pittsburgh opened as a -4 favorite, but the line has moved down for this intraconference battle.

Prediction 1: C.J. Stroud Over 235.5 Passing Yards @ -110 (1.91)

Stroud has surpassed 235.5 passing yards in all three games this season and threw for 384 yards in his home debut at NRG Stadium in Week 2. The rookie gunslinger is averaging 40.3 passes per game and will face the league’s 22nd-ranked pass defense that allowed 324 passing yards to Jimmy Garoppolo last Sunday. The Texans’ running game is tallying just 70 yards each week, which will provide Stroud and the passing game enough opportunities to easily exceed 235.5 passing yards for the fourth time this season.

Prediction 2: George Pickens Over 57.5 Receiving Yards @ -110 (1.91)

Pickens has eclipsed 57.5 receiving yards twice this season and is averaging nearly 80 yards per contest. The Texans’ 18th-ranked pass defense will be without cornerbacks Derek Stingley Jr. and Tavierre Thomas in a matchup that could have a combined 80-plus pass attempts. Pickens is the Steelers’ top receiving threat and should have enough targets on Sunday to surpass 57.5 passing yards for the third time in four outings this season.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers odds

According to moneyline odds, the Steelers at -150 (1.67) odds are the more likely winners and have a win probability of 58.30%, while the Texans at +125 (2.25) odds have a 41.70% chance to win this game.

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Can the Steelers stop the Texans passing attack?

Houston boasts the NFL’s fifth-ranked passing attack with 302 yards and squares off this week against a pass defense that has allowed opposing wide receivers to catch 50 balls for 634 yards and four touchdowns.

Houston Texans form, news and injuries

Stroud is ranked sixth in the NFL with 906 passing yards and joins Justin Herbert as the only quarterback with 120-plus pass attempts and no interceptions. The Texans will wear their “Battle Red” alternate uniform tops with matching helmets and white pants this week. Despite having the league’s fifth-worst running game, Houston ranks 11th in time possession.

Houston Texans injury report

T Josh Jones (Hand) – Out
T Laremy Tunsil (Knee) – Out
CB Tavierre Thomas (Hand) – Out
MLB Denzel Perryman (Hand) – Out
OL Michael Deiter (Chest) – Questionable

Pittsburgh Steelers form, news and injuries

T.J. Watt has a league-high six sacks for a defense that leads the NFL with 13 sacks. Pittsburgh is riding a two-game winning streak despite ranking next to last in time possession. Second-round cornerback Joey Porter Jr. has allowed one catch for 12 yards on five targets in 41 snaps this season. Najee Harris has rushed for 100 yards just once in his last 21 regular season games.

Pittsburgh Steelers injury report

OL James Daniels (Groin) – Out
P Pressley Harvin (Hamstring) – Out

Houston Texans vs Pittsburgh Steelers head to head record

The Steelers lead the all-time series 5-2 and have won the last three meetings:

2020: Steelers won 28-21 in Pittsburgh
2017: Steelers won 34-6 in Houston
2014: Steelers won 30-23 in Pittsburgh
2011: Texans won 17-10 in Houston
2008: Steelers won 38-17 in Pittsburgh

Key match details

• Date & Time: Sunday, October 1, 2023, 01:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas
• Where to watch match in UK: FuboTV or other live stream

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