Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots prediction and odds

The Dallas Cowboys will look to get back on the winning track in Week 4 when the New England Patriots visit AT&T Stadium. The Cowboys (2-1) were upset last Sunday by the Arizona Cardinals, while the Patriots (1-2) snapped a two-game losing skid with an unimpressive win over the struggling New York Jets.

Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals
Sep 24, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Dallas Cowboys wide receiver CeeDee Lamb (88) runs the ball in the second half against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon Sport

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots – game predictions

The Cowboys are a 6.5-point favorite with a total of 43.5 points. Dallas opened as a -7 favorite, but the line has moved slightly down for this must-win game for both squads.

Prediction 1: Dak Prescott Over 233.5 Passing Yards @ -110 (1.91)

Prescott has cracked 233.5 passing yards in the past two weeks and will be under extreme pressure Sunday to deliver a win in front of a disgruntled home crowd. New England has limited opposing quarterbacks to 170 or fewer yards twice this season, and rookie cornerback Christian Gonzalez has already silenced top wideouts A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, and Garrett Wilson over the first three weeks. However, the Cowboys will struggle to run the ball consistently against the Patriots, and Prescott will connect with Brandin Cooks on a few long passes to surpass 233.5 yards in a hard-fought victory.

Prediction 2: Ezekiel Elliott Over 27.5 Rushing Yards @ -110 (1.91)

Elliott returns to Big D to face his former team after an impressive showing last week against the New York Jets’ stout run defense. Zeke has eclipsed 27.5 rushing yards twice this season and beat that target in 14 of 15 games last year. The Cowboys are allowing over 131 yards per game, and New England will look to establish the running game to slow down Micah Parsons and a defensive unit that ranks third in the league with 12 sacks. Elliott would love to stick it to the Cowboys, and Bill Belichick will give him the rock enough times to easily run for more than 27.5 yards.

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots odds

Based on moneyline odds, the Cowboys at -275 (1.36) odds are the more likely winners and have an implied win probability of 74.0%, while the Patriots at +225 (3.25) odds have a 30.3% chance to win this game.

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots – Can the Patriots pull off the upset?

The Cowboys’ 22nd-ranked passing game is struggling, and the Patriots should be able to run the ball against a soft Dallas run defense. This game could go down to the wire if Mac Jones can protect the ball.

Dallas Cowboys form, news and injuries

The Cowboys’ offensive line is banged up with one starter out and two starters playing at less than 100%. Heading into Week 4, no Dallas receiver has scored a touchdown this season. Tony Pollard notched his first 100-yard game last Sunday and has averaged 24 carries per game over the previous two weeks. The Cowboys were gashed for 222 rushing yards by the Cardinals.

Dallas Cowboys injury report

T Tyron Smith (Knee) – Out
G Zack Martin (Ankle) – Questionable
C Tyler Biadasz (Hamstring) – Questionable
TE Peyton Hendershot (Ankle) – Questionable

New England Patriots form, news and injuries

The Patriots have a banged-up defensive front with Daniel Ekuale placed on injured reserve, and both Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux limited participants in practice this week with lingering injuries. New England is ranked 26th in scoring offense with just 17.3 points per game. The Patriots have lost seven of their last 11 regular season road games.

New England Patriots injury report

DL Christian Barmore (Knee) – Questionable
CB Shaun Wade (Shoulder) – Questionable
DL Davon Godchaux (Ankle) – Questionable
DB Jonathan Jones (Ankle) – Questionable
OL Cole Strange (Knee) – Questionable

Dallas Cowboys vs New England Patriots head to head record

The Cowboys lead the all-time series 8-6 but have lost six of the last seven meetings:

2021: Cowboys won 35-29 in New England
2019: Patriots won 13-9 in New England
2015: Patriots won 30-6 in Dallas
2011: Patriots won 20-16 in New England
2007: Patriots won 48-27 in Dallas

Key match details

• Date & Time: Sunday, October 1, 2023, 04:25 p.m. ET
• Venue: AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
• Where to watch match in UK: FuboTV or other live stream

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