La Vuelta Stage 16 odds and predictions

The 2023 La Vuelta just had its second and final rest day and we’re about to enter the decisive week 3 of the race. Can Jumbo-Visma protect their one, two, three positions in the overall standings? Will there be constant attacks during the very short and punchy Stage 16? Here is a preview of Stage 16, the odds of the main favourites and of course, all 3 picks.

La Vuelta Stage 16 Profile

The 2023 La Vuelta Stage 16 starts in Liencres and finishes in Bejes. The stage is only 120.1 km (74.6 miles) long and the starting time is 13:40 GMT. Meanwhile, the  estimated finish time is 16:30 GMT.

Stage 16 profile
From La Vuelta website

The day starts near the coast of the Cantabrian Sea in the town of Linecres. For the first 100 km, the riders stay close to the coast and apart from a few small hills they enjoy a flat and easy-to-ride day.

There will be early attacks and potential side wind coming from the sea could affect the race in the early stages.

Things start to heat up much more once the riders turn inland just after entering Asturias. The terrain doesn’t change at first but eventually, the exciting finale at the top of the only categorised climb of the day arrives.

The climb to the line begins in La Hermida. The ascent is 4.8 kilometres long and averaging 8.8%. The third kilometre is relatively easy, the rest of the climb is mostly double-digit material.

Our betting tips and predictions for La Vuelta Stage 16

It’s clear that team Jumbo-Visma contains the two main favourites for the overall win. With the race entering its final week this short Stage 16 that finishes with a decent but also not very demanding climb gives another opportunity for the main GC contenders to fight for the win and precious bonus seconds.

Our Outright Prediction: Primoz Roglic @ 5/1 (6.00)

The 3-time La Vuelta champion Primoz Roglic loves such types of profiles. The Slovenian earned some decisive wins and gained precious time in all of his 3 triumphs so far exactly in such type of stages. With Roglic bound to feel fresh after a rest day, we expect him to attack the final climb and secure the win.

Roglic is better than Vingegaard in such short and not too strenuous climbs and that’s why we give him the advantage.

Our Each-way Prediction: Jonas Vingegaard @ 1/4 (1.25)

Jonas Vingegaard still dreams of winning both Tour de France and the La Vuelta in the same year and he is still in with a chance. Vingegaard can’t afford to lose much time on Roglic though so we expect him to stay close to the Slovenian and this should be enough to see him secure a top 3 finish.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Enrico Mas @ 50/1 (51.00)

For our dark horse, we pick Movistar’s leader Enrico Mas. The Spanish rider is an explosive climber who loves such short and punchy stages. Mas is still chasing a podium finish too so his motivation is high. He won’t be having much of a support from his trimmed team but when the stage is so short and the only climb is the finale this won’t matter much. Watch out for Mas if he can stay on the wheel of the Jumbo-Visma train as he can sprint well.

La Vuelta Stage 16 Odds

Vu st 15
Photo by Icon sport

We’ve selected our potential winners and podium finishers for Stage 16. These are the top 10 favourites according to the bookies to win Stage 16:

Primoz Roglic 5/1 (6.00)

Remco Evenepoel 8/1 (9.00)

Santiago Buitrago 12/1 (13.00)

Lennard Kamna 14/1 (15.00)

Wout Poels 16/1 (17.00)

Jonas Vingegaard 16/1 (17.00)

Juan Ayuso 16/1 (17.00)

Michael Storer 20/1 (21.00)

Romain Bardet 20/1 (21.00)

Romain Gregoire 25/1 (26.00)

As we can see the main bunch of riders among the top 10 favourites to win Stage 16 are decent climbers and GS contenders. Roglic is the big favourite and as we said already the reason for that is his ability to attack such short climbs like nobody else can.

Our dark horse pick Mas is not among the top 10 favourites but we think if he feels fresh and stays with the leaders Mas could cause an upset.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.