La Vuelta Stage 21 odds and predictions

The 2023 La Vuelta has reached its final day and we will have a trio of Jumbo-Visma riders on the podium in Madrid. The unexpected winner will be Sepp Kuss as he surprised his teammates Roglic and Vingegaard. The trio will be celebrating on this final day an achievement no other team has been able to accomplish before. However, our Vuelta Stage 21 predictions are not about those three as the race across Madrid promises the sprinters more joy.

Vuelta Stage 21 scaled
Photo by Icon sport

La Vuelta Stage 21 Profile

The 2023 La Vuelta Stage 20 starts in Hipodromo de la Zarzuela and finishes in Madrid. The stage is 101.1 km (62.8 miles) long and the starting time is 16:14 GMT. Meanwhile, the  estimated finish time is 19:00 GMT.

Vuelta Stage 21 profile
From La Vuelta official website

This final stage is 7 high-speed laps across the streets of Madrid that almost always end with an exciting sprint finish. 

The Paseo del Prado, Paseo de Recoletos, Calle de Alcalá and the Gran Via feature prominently on the city circuit before the race ends at the Plaza de Cibeles. Each lap is 5.8 kilometres long and as good as flat.

Our betting tips and predictions for La Vuelta Stage 21

Kuss, Vingegaard and Roglic will claim the top 3 positions in the overall standings but the final day of the 2023 La Vuelta will be about the sprinters as they fight for a prestigious win in Madrid. Here are our predictions:

Our Outright Prediction: Kaden Groves @ 10/11 (1.91)

The Australian sprinter Kaden Groves already has secured the Green jersey for best sprinter. He has been very consistent and already won 2 stages during week 1. However, Groves was beaten to the line in the last two sprint finishes we had. This is the final chance for Groves to make it a hat-trick of stage wins to go with his green jersey and he will be extra motivated to cross the line first.

Considering, he has been easily the most dominant sprinter this entire race we simply can’t see past him for the stage win.

Our Each-way Prediction: Alberto Dainese @ 1/4 (1.25)

The powerful Italian Alberto Dainese grabbed his first stage win just a few days ago when he surprised Groves right at the finish line. Dainese is a very solid sprinter and even if he can’t repeat his heroics and beat Groves again we can see him still securing a top 3 finish on the day.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Casper Pedersen @ 16/1 (17.00)

For our dark horse, we back another specialist sprinter Casper Pedersen. He has been unconvincing so far. That said Pedersen has stage wins to his name both in Paris and Rome in the past. This shows that he knows how to win a bunch sprint in the biggest cities on the final day of a Grand Tour. So, we think if somebody can challenge Groves and Dainese that might be Pedersen.

La Vuelta Stage 21 Odds

Stage 21 scaled
Photo by Icon sport

These are the top 10 favourites according to the bookies to win Stage 21:

Kaden Groves 10/11 (1.91)

Alberto Dainese 4/1 (5.00)

Juan Sebastian Molano 5/1 (6.00)

Filippo Ganna 5/1 (6.00)

Marijn Van Den Berg 14/1 (15.00)

Casper Pedersen 16/1 (17.00)

Edward Theuns 25/1 (26.00)

Ivan Garcia Cortina 33/1 (34.00)

Davide Cimolai 33/1 (34.00)

Remco Evenepoel 50/1 (51.00)

It is all about the sprinters on this final stage of the 2023 La Vuelta. The Green jersey winner Kaden Groves is once again the big favourite for the win, which will be his third stage triumph. However, this is Madrid and anything can happen as a large group of riders enter the final bend before the finish line.

Our dark horse pick Pedersen is also among the top 10 favourites. It would be hard for him to win but at the same time, it would make a lovely story if he could accomplish the prestigious treble and win sprints in all of Rome, Paris and Madrid.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.