La Vuelta Stage 20 odds and predictions

The 2023 La Vuelta is about to come to a conclusion and fireworks are expected during the penultimate stage that will see 3 teammates battle it out for the overall win on a day on which they have to conquer 10 categorised climbs. Saturday full of drama is certain and Stage 20 of the Vuelta promises to be the most dramatic one so far. Will Kuss remain in red? Can Vingegaard or Roglic steal the win? Will somebody else challenge the Jumbo-Visma Fab Three? Below is our Stage 20 preview as well as some free betting tips and predictions.

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Photo by Icon sport

La Vuelta Stage 20 Profile

The 2023 La Vuelta Stage 20 starts in Manzanares el Real and finishes in Guadarrama. The stage is 207.8 km (129.1 miles) long and the starting time is 10:55 GMT. Meanwhile, the  estimated finish time is 16:30 GMT.

Vuelta Stage 20 profile
From La Vuelta official website

This penultimate stage is full of hills but there are no major climbs. Stage 20 has 10 categorised climbs and yet none are higher than Category 3. Still, the sheer amount of climbs and the long distance of the stage will challenge the riders to their limits.  

The day begins from Manzanares el Real and the climbing starts right from the beginning. The Puerto de la Cruz Verde is the opening climb and will also be the closer of the loops. It’s 7-kilometre long and averaging 5%. When the riders reach the summit, on they go, following the downhill and a section in the valley La Escondida is next. The 9-kilometre climb averages 4.1%.

Next comes La Paradilla. It throws in some unclassified climbing metres – 2.3 kilometres at 5,4%. It’s the prelude to the Alto de Santa María de la Alameda, a 5-kilometre long climb with an average gradient of 5.6%. The downhill is just 3 kilometres and then the Alto de Roblendondo rounds out the first lap with 5.1 kilometres of climbing at 4.8%.

At the end of the downhill the riders turn back and go over all of La Escondida, La Paradilla, Alto de Santa María de la Alameda and Alto de Roblendondo again, just this time they do it from the other side.

The hardest climb of the day is saved for last. It’s the Alto San Lorenzo de El Escorial, which is not only a 4.6-kilometre climb at 6.6%, but it’s also a wildly irregular test with several sections at over 10%. The summit is situated 12.2 kilometres before the finish line. The first 5 are on descent, the rest is a flat and straight road.

Our betting tips and predictions for La Vuelta Stage 20

Team Jumbo-Visma contains the top three main favourites for the overall win. Kuss, Vingegaard and Roglic will have to decide on Saturday which one of them will be in red in Madrid. Never before a race between 3 riders from the same team has been taking place to decide the overall winner so we’re in uncharted territory. Here are our predictions:

Our Outright Prediction: Jonas Vingegaard @ 3/1 (4.00)

Jonas Vingegaard prefers long and steep climbs as he thrives on those. However, the 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner is known for his amazing stamina and this is an attribute that should give him an edge in such a stage when the climbing never stops.

Vingegaard is bound to be aggressive as he trails his teammate Sepp Kuss by only 17 seconds in the general classification. The Dane can taste victory and we can see him emptying every ounce of energy he has left in the tank after 3 weeks of racing as he tries to secure both Tour de France and La Vuelta victories in the same year.

Our Each-way Prediction: Sepp Kuss @ 1/4 (1.25)

Sepp Kuss spent most of the race in red and he comes into the penultimate stage holding a 17-second lead over Vingegaard and over a minute over his other teammate Primoz Roglic. Kuss knows that his teammates will be attacking him relentlessly and yet so far he has been able to respond. As long as Kuss stays close to Vingegaard and Roglic he will be the champion. Can he do it is yet to be determined? What we think he can easily do is secure another top 3 finish in a stage.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Mikel Landa @ 40/1 (41.00)

For our dark horse, we pick the Spanish veteran Mikael Landa. Landa is a proven climber and this profile with lots of hills but no major peaks to conquer will suit him. Landa still chases a top 5 overall finish so we can see him being active and who knows if he can join a successful breakaway we can see him going for the stage win too.

La Vuelta Stage 20 Odds

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Photo by Icon sport

These are the top 10 favourites according to the bookies to win Stage 20:

Jonas Vingegaard 3/1 (4.00)

Primoz Roglic 15/2 (7.50)

Sepp Kuss 11/1 (12.00)

Remco Evenepoel 12/1 (13.00)

Jesus Herrada 12/1 (13.00)

Juan Ayuso 16/1 (17.00)

Michael Storer 18/1 (19.00)

Romain Bardet 20/1 (21.00)

Damiano Caruso 21/1 (22.00)

Andreas Kron 25/1 (26.00)

As we can see the three Jumbo-Visma riders that will also decide the overall winner of the 2023 La Vuelta on Saturday are also the top 3 favourites to win the stage. The battle will be fascinating and compelling to watch.

Our dark horse pick Landa is not among the top 10 favourites. Understandably so as it will take some doing for a breakaway to stay ahead of the fierce pace that the Jumbo-Visma train are bound to set.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.