La Vuelta Stage 15 odds and predictions

The 2023 La Vuelta offered us excitement and drama over the last two days when some iconic mountains were conquered and decisive moves made. Sunday promises to be as exciting with the hilly terrain promising lots of attacks and a fast finale on the descent. Will a breakaway be successful? We think so. Below are our La Vuelta Stage 15 predictions and some odds too.

Vuelta Stage 15 odds
Photo by Icon sport

La Vuelta Stage 15 Profile

The 2023 La Vuelta Stage 15 starts in Pamplona and finishes in Lekunberri. The stage is 158.3 km (98.4 miles) long and the starting time is 12:20 GMT. Meanwhile, the  estimated finish time is 16:30 GMT.

Stage 15 profile
From La Vuelta website

The day starts in the famous for bullfighting town of Pamplona. The terrain is hilly all the way with 3 categorised climbs and a fast downhill finish in the city of Lekunberri.

This is a hilly race with a downhill finale. After a double ascent of the Puerto de Zuarrarrate, the last 9 kilometres are on descent.

 The first climb of the day is the most challenging one. The climb to Sanctuary of San Miguel de Aralar was brutal – 9.4-kilometre at 7.9% on bumpy tarmac – and the Puerto de Zuarrarrate is something else entirely. The average gradient of the 7.3-kilometre-long climb sits at 4.8%. It’s part of a finishing circuit of some 30-kilometre long. After cresting the Puerto de Zuarrarrate for the second time the riders descend at full speed to the finish line in Lekunberri.

Our betting tips and predictions for La Vuelta Stage 15

With the 2023 La Vuelta about to reach its final rest day on Monday, team Jumbo-Visma contains the two main favourites for the overall win. and they seem to be in control of the race so far. However, the profile of Stage 15 suggests that nobody will be controlling things on that day and it will be curious to see who has energy left in the tank after back-to-back brutal days in the mountains.

Our Outright Prediction: Mattia Cattaneo @ 20/1 (21.00)

The Italian rider Mattia Cattaneo is a talented climber who do pretty well on such shorter and not too demanding climbs like what we will have on Sunday. Cattaneo is most famous for his breakneck style of riding downhill. There are not many riders faster than Cattaneo when he descends.

The Italian knows the profile suits him well, so he is likely to be actively looking to join a breakaway. If he manages to stay near the leaders come to the last summit then watch out for Cattaneo flying past the finish line first on the descent.

Our Each-way Prediction: Andreas Kron @ 1/4 (1.25)

Andreas Kron is climbing very well so far. He’s a very good breakaway rider too. The combination of those two attributes on a day like Sunday means that Kron would fancy his chances. He is a serious contender for the stage win as in a sprint against other non-specialist sprinters Kron usually wins. We certainly fancy his chances to secure a top 3 finish.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Geraint Thomas @ 38/1 (39.00)

For our dark horse, we select the British veteran Geraint Thomas. The 38-year-old is having a tough Vuelta so far. Yet, he was close to a stage win only a few days ago and the ex-Tour de France winner still has the legs to attack.

Thomas struggles to keep up with the best on tough HC category climbs. However, on a profile like the Sunday one Thomas would feel he could be challenging for the win. He is no longer a threat to the GC, so Thomas will be allowed to join any breakaways he wants.

La Vuelta Stage 15 Odds

Vu st 15
Photo by Icon sport

We’ve selected our potential winners and podium finishers on day 15 of racing now we show you the top 10 favourites to win Stage 15:

Remco Evenepoel 8/1 (9.00)

Andreas Kron 9/1 (10.00)

Filippo Ganna 10/1 (11.00)

Oier Lazkano 12/1 (13.00)

Romain Gregoire 14/1 (15.00)

Mattia Cattaneo 20/1 (21.00)

Jesus Herrada 25/1 (26.00)

Primoz Roglic 25/1 (26.00)

Lennard Kamna 25/1 (26.00)

Rui Costa 33/1 (34.00)

As we can see the main bunch of riders among the top 10 favourites to win Stage 15 are decent climbers that are also known as good breakaway specialists. It seems that just like us the bookies expect a breakaway to succeed on Sunday. The big question is who will be in it?

Our dark horse pick Geraint Thomas is just outside the top 10 favourites for the stage win. The Welshman can be a contender only if he has the legs to attack and join a breakaway.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.