La Vuelta Stage 11 odds and predictions

The 2023 La Vuelta has just entered week 2 and yet the race was shaken up by the individual time trial. Now in Stage 11, the riders take to the mountains again for a classic La Vuelta stage with a steep enigmatic climb for a grand finale. Below you can check all La Vuelta Stage 11 odds and also you’ll find our La Vuelta Stage 11 predictions.

Vuelta Stage 11 scaled
Photo by Icon sport

La Vuelta Stage 11 Profile

The 2023 La Vuelta Stage 11 starts at Lerma and most of the day’s riding will be conducted at over 800m above sea level as the riders gradually climb towards the legendary Laguna Negra black lake where the grand finale is. The stage is 163.2 km (101.4 miles) long and the starting time is 12:15 GMT. Meanwhile, the  estimated finish time is 16:30 GMT.

Stage 11
From La Vuelta official website

The first 150 kilometres of the stage are played out between 800 metres and 1,100 metres above sea level. The undulating route on a plateau south of Burgos is far from remarkable. It’s a build-up to an explosive finale.

The Laguna Negra climb is 6.5 kilometres long and averaging 6.8%, but the last 500 metres ramp up to 11.2%. Opening with a section at 14%, the last 1.5 kilometres are averaging 9% with the ultimate 500 metres ramping up to 11.2%.

Our betting tips and predictions for La Vuelta Stage 11

With the 2023 La Vuelta at a boiling point, all eyes are on team Jumbo-Visma which contains the two main favourites for the overall win. However, many other riders have high aspirations and this first proper stage is an opportunity for some of those breakaway specialists to try and get a stage win.

Our Outright Prediction: Remco Evenepoel @ 10/1 (11.00)

The defending La Vuelta champion looks determined to give up his crown to a Jumbo-Visma rider and so far Remco Evenepoel has been fighting back at every opportunity. Remco already won a mountain stage in week 1 and he also looked very fresh during the Stage 10 individual time trial.

With that in mind, we think Evenepoel might try to make a move on the general classification. He is very aggressive on short steep climbs like the final one of this stage. He’s obviously feeling well too after gaining more time on Roglic and Vingegaard during the time trial.

Our Each-way Prediction: Romain Bardet @ 1/4 (1.25)

The French breakaway specialist Romain Bardet is a gifted climber and he has been in decent form so far. Bardet could either join a breakaway early in the day or stay with the main contenders and let them attack each other while he waits for the final kilometre to make his move. Bardet is not the best of sprinters but he could still finish in the top 3 easily if he is near the front come the final few hundred metres.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Joao Almeida @ 51/1 (52.00)

For our dark horse to win stage 11 we select young Joao Almeida. He is a very good climber and not a threat to the general classification. With that in mind, we think that if Almeida can join a breakaway he might have the legs to stay ahead of the pack. Almeida won a race finishing at the top of Laguna Negra as a junior back in 2020. This shows that he likes this climb and knows it well.

La Vuelta Stage 11 Odds

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 11:

Primoz Roglic 7/1 (8.00)

Remco Evenepoel 10/1 (11.00)

Lennard Kamna 12/1 (13.00)

Wout Poels 13/1 (14.00)

Romain Bardet 16/1 (17.00)

Michael Storer 16/1 (17.00)

Jonas Vingegaard 20/1 (21.00)

Oier Lazkano 22/1 (23.00)

Romain Gregoire 22/1 (23.00)

Santiago Buitrago 26/1 (27.00)

Our first 2 picks from above are among the top 5 favourites for the stage win. Clearly, the bookies think that the race for the win will be between the main GC contenders. That said breakaway specialists that can climb like Poels and Gregorie also sneak among the top 10 favourites.

Our dark horse pick Almeida is not among the top favourites for the win but he knows how to win at the top of Laguna Negra and this is an invaluable advantage to have when pacing yourself towards the finish line.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.