Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction and odds

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers kick off a new era with Baker Mayfield replacing Tom Brady to take on the Minnesota Vikings, who won the NFC North last year. Both teams lost in the wild card round at home.

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Game predictions

The Vikings are a 5.5-point home favorite with a total of 46 points. The line has come down from Vikings -6.5 in favor of Tampa.

Prediction 1: Tampa Bay Over 20.5 total points @ +102 (2.02)

The Buccaneers never scored more than 20.5 points on the road last year with Tom Brady, but they are facing one of the worst defenses in the league in a dome this week. The Vikings let go of many defensive veterans and did little to replace them. They also will play a bend-but-don’t-break style that should give Mayfield plenty of scoring opportunities as long as he is patient. Mayfield finished last in QBR in 2022 but still led Carolina to 24 points on opening day. He can do it again in Minnesota in an offense that still has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and the offensive line should be healthier than last year.

Prediction 2: Alexander Mattison under 64.5 rushing yards @ -113 (1.88)

After not bringing Dalvin Cook back, the Vikings are going with Alexander Mattison as the new lead back. He’s had some good games in his career before, but his 6-highest rushing games (all over 64.5 yards) all came against the Lions (4) and Seahawks (2). That does not feel like a coincidence. Look for Todd Bowles to use his talented front to shut down the run, hold Mattison in check, and force Kirk Cousins to win this game through the air. Take the under for Mattison in his debut as the lead back.

Vikings vs Buccaneers preview – Can Baker improve?

The Buccaneers could actually generate some bigger passing plays this year if Mayfield can hold the ball longer than Tom Brady wanted to last year. The 45-year-old was done getting hit while Baker is still young and not as good at taking the easy plays. It will be a different look this year and the Vikings were a defense that was shredded by Mac Jones and Daniel Jones (twice) for 300-yard games last year.

Minnesota Vikings form, news and injuries

Justin Jefferson will attempt to become the first player since Marshall Faulk (1999-2001) to repeat as Offensive Player of the Year. But he has a new No. 2 after Adam Thielen left for Carolina and the team drafted Jordan Addison in the first round.

Minnesota Vikings injury report:

  • OL Chris Reed (Lower Leg) – Out
  • OLB Marcus Davenport (Ankle) – Questionable
  • DL James Lynch (Knee) – Out
  • RB Kene Nwangwu (Back) – Out
  • WR Malik Knowles (Undisclosed) – Out

Tampa Bay Buccaneers form, news and injuries

A name to keep an eye on this year is new offensive coordinator Dave Canales. He was Geno Smith’s quarterbacks coach last year in Seattle for his breakout year, and now he takes over this mess of an offense. If he can get Baker on track next, Canales might be a head coach in short order.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers injury report:

  • C Ryan Jensen (Knee)- Out
  • WR Russell Gage (Knee) – Out
  • G Cody Mauch (Back) – Questionable
  • DL Calijah Kancey (Calf) – Questionable

Vikings vs Buccaneers head to head record

These teams used to be NFC Central rivals. Here are their last 5 matchups:

  • 2020: Buccaneers 26, Cardinals 14
  • 2017: Vikings 34, Buccaneers 17
  • 2014: Vikings 19, Buccaneers 13 (OT)
  • 2012: Buccaneers 36, Vikings 17
  • 2011: Buccaneers 24, Vikings 20

Key match details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023, 01:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, MN
  • Where to watch match in UK: Sky Sports (TV), fuboTV, or other live stream

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