Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons prediction and odds

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons prediction and odds
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers in the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

The Detroit Lions will host the Atlanta Falcons at Ford Field this Sunday at 1 p.m. ET.

The Lions (1-1) are coming off a 37-31 overtime loss to the Seahawks. The Falcons (2-0) have been one of the surprises this season and beat Green Bay 25-24 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Week 2.

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons – game predictions

Most sportbooks feature the Lions as 3.5-point favorites. The over/under is set for 46.5.

Prediction 1: Jahmyr Gibbs over 73.5 rush/receiving yards @ -114 (1.88)

It’s time to “free” Gibbs. The rookie 12th overall pick in this year’s draft has been raved about by coaches leading up to and during the season. Dan Campbell said he’d slowly give him more and more work as he gets more comfortable.

The time is now since Detroit’s primary ball carrier David Montgomery is not expected to play with a thigh injury.

Gibbs is averaging 58 rushing/receiving yards through two weeks but was used extremely sparingly in the Lions’ opening 21-20 win over Kansas City. Last week, he had seven receptions on nine targets.

He’s seen seven carries each week but should see an uptick in volume with Montgomery sidelined. Craig Reynolds will help carry the load but is nowhere near as versatile as Montgomery or Gibbs.

Gibbs’ 25.7% target share in Week 2 shows promise. According to FantasyPros, the Falcons rank 23rd in the NFL in stuff rate, 22nd in explosive run rate allowed and 22nd in yards after contact per attempt.

The -114 line offered by FanDuel for Gibbs to hit over 73.5 rush/rec yards is excellent, thanks to many other oddsmakers, such as Caesars and William Hill, listing his total at 75.5 (two yards higher) at -115.

FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources such as ESPN, CBS,, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Gibbs to record about 12.3 carries for 60 rushing yards and four receptions for 32 yards, which is 92.5 rush/rec yards.

BettingPros model projects him to have 80.3 rushing and receiving yards.

Prediction 2: Desmond Ridder over 25.5 pass attempts @ -109 (1.92)

BetRivers and Sugarhouse sportsbooks have ridiculously favorable -109 odds for Ridder to hit over 25.5 pass attempts. Other books, such as FanDuel, have Ridder at -130. The 25.5 total is very generous, thanks to oddsmakers at most sportsbooks listing his total at 27.5 (two higher) and at -110 odds.

Since becoming the starter in Week 15 of last season, Ridder has eclipsed 25.5 pass attempts in 83.3% (5/6) of contests. His career pass attempts average is 27.5.

Career pass attempts for Ridder

  • Week 15 @ NOLA: 26
  • Week 16 @ BAL: 33
  • Week 17 vs. ARI: 26
  • Week 18 vs. TB: 30
  • Week 1 vs. CAR: 18
  • Week 2 vs. GB: 32

Last week, Ridder threw a career-high 32 passes. Atlanta’s run game is the focal point of the offense, but head coach Arthur Smith is confident in his QB1 (voiced it this offseason) and is trusting him more and more every week.

The Falcons are 3.5-point underdogs to the Lions, so if they do end up behind, the game script indicates Ridder will have opportunities to throw. FantasyPros’ model projects Ridder to have 28.3 pass attempts, 2.8 more than his line.

Lions vs Falcons preview – can Atlanta go 3-0?

The Falcons started the 2022 season 0-2. This year, they’ve achieved the opposite by starting 2-0.

Detroit form, news and injuries

The Lions are 1-1 against the spread in 2022-2023.

Lions injury report

  • WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (toe) is questionable.
  • WR Josh Reynolds (groin) is questionable.
  • RB David Montgomery (thigh) is doubtful.
  • LT Taylor Decker (ankle) is out.
  • RG Halapoulivaati Vaitai (knee) is out.
  • CB Emmanuel Moseley (knee and hamstring) is out.
  • S Kerby Joseph (hip) is out.

Atlanta form, news and injuries

The Falcons are also 1-1 ATS this campaign.

Falcons injury report

  • CB Jeff Okudah (foot) is questionable.
  • RB Cordarelle Patterson (thigh) is questionable.

Lions vs Falcons head-to-head record

12/26/2021Detroit Lions16@Atlanta Falcons20
10/25/2020Detroit Lions23@Atlanta Falcons22
09/24/2017Atlanta Falcons30@Detroit Lions26
10/26/2014Detroit Lions22@Atlanta Falcons21
12/22/2012Atlanta Falcons31@Detroit Lions18

Key match details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Ford Field in Detroit, MI
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports, FuboTV or other live stream

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