NFL

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction and odds

September 23, 2023 12:41 pm
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans prediction and odds
September 17, 2023: Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins (12) and quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) celebrate their touchdown play during a game between the Indianapolis Colts and the Houston Texans in Houston. Trask Smith/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA) - Photo by Icon Sport

The Jacksonville Jaguars host their division foes, the Houston Texans, at TIAA Bank Field on Sunday, Sept. 25 at 1 p.m. ET.

Former 2020 No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence and the Jags (1-1) will face the Texans’ (0-2) 2020 No. 2 pick CJ Stroud. Jacksonville is coming off a 17-9 home loss to Kansas City and Houston fell 31-20 against Indianapolis.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans – game predictions

Oddsmakers at many sportsbooks have Jacksonville as an 8.5-point favorite.

Prediction 1: Nico Collins over 53.5 rec yards @ -110 (1.91)

Collins has become the clear WR1 in Houston and rookie quarterback Stroud’s favorite target. Through two games, the Michigan product is averaging 113 yards per game.

Obviously, it will be almost impossible for him to keep up that average, but he’s easily cleared 53.5 yards, as shown in his stats below.

Nico Collins game log

  • At Baltimore: 6 receptions for 80 yards (11 targets)
  • Vs. Indianapolis: 7 receptions for 146 yards (9 targets)

This year, he has a 22% target share, which leads the team. According to FantasyPros, he also leads the team in targets per route run, yards per route run and first-read share when facing zone coverages. He’ll line up primarily against Darious Williams, who’s allowed a 102.8 passer rating to quarterbacks and a 72.7% catch rate. Tyson Campbell will also face him in coverage, and he’s allowed a 94.8 passer rating and a 77.8% catch rate (per FantasyPros).

ESPN’s model projects him to have 63 receiving yards, which is 9.5 more than the 53.5 needed to cash the over. FantasyPros’ total projections, which combine six sources including ESPN, CBS, NFL.com, Numberfire, Fantasy Football Today and their own model, predict Collins to record 65.1 receiving yards (11.6-yard difference).

The -110 line from Bet365 is juicy thanks to other books, such as DraftKings, listing him at -125 (55.6% implied odds) to hit the over. FanDuel has his total at 54.5 (one yard higher) at -114 (worse odds than Bet365).

Prediction 2: Houston to cover alt spread (+10.5) @ -144 (1.69)

The Texans are dealing with injuries in their secondary and will more than likely lose this game. That being said, division games have been historically close, and 0-2 teams have a history of covering spreads when facing the chance to go 0-3.

Last year, the Texans lost 13-6 in Jacksonville in Week 5 and were blown at home 31-3 in Week 17. Houston does have a better overall squad, and Stroud is certainly an upgrade at quarterback over Davis Mills.

While Lawrence is a rising talent at quarterback, he is 2-6 against the spread and 0-4 when favored by four or more points (per Brandon Anderson). There are also a few trends (per Bet Labs) to look at when 0-2 teams have their backs up against the wall.

  • 0-2 ATS teams that lost by seven or less in Week 2 are 32-18 ATS (64%) in Week 3.
  • Teams that are 0-2 since 2010 vs. teams 1-1 or better: 50-29-1 against the spread (63% ATS)
  • Winless teams since 2005 have gone 82-63-4 (57%) against the spread in week 3.
  • Since 2010, 0-2 teams are 15-6-1 ATS (71%) in division games.

Jaguars vs Texans preview – Houston, do we have a problem?

Franchises that start 0-3 have only made the playoffs six times since the NFL expansion in 1979.

Jacksonville form, news and injuries

The Jaguars are 1-1 against the spread this campaign.

Jaguars injury report

  • DT Folorunso Fatukasi (shoulder) is questionable.
  • LB Josh Allen (shoulder) is questionable.
  • WR Zay Jones (knee) is out.

Houston form, news and injuries

The Texans are 0-2 ATS this season.

Texans injury report

  • OT Laremy Tunsil (knee) is questionable but expected to play.
  • CB Derek Stingley Jr. (hamstring) is out.
  • LB Denzel Perryman (hand) is out.
  • CB Tavierre Thomas (hand) is out.
  • S Jalen Pitre (chest) is out.

Jaguars vs Texans head-to-head record

01/01/2023Jacksonville Jaguars31@Houston Texans3
10/09/2022Houston Texans13@Jacksonville Jaguars6
12/19/2021Houston Texans30@Jacksonville Jaguars16
09/12/2021Jacksonville Jaguars21@Houston Texans37
11/08/2020Houston Texans27@Jacksonville Jaguars25

Key match details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, Sept. 24 at 1:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports, FuboTV or other live stream

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