Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins prediction and odds

The Los Angeles Chargers host the Miami Dolphins in what could be an important game for playoff seeding in the AFC. It is the third meeting between 2020 quarterback classmates Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa, who have split their first two games so far.

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins – Game predictions

The Chargers are a 3-point favorite with a total of 50.5 points (the second-highest total this week). The Chargers have moved up from a 2-point favorite in this matchup.

Prediction 1: Chargers -3 @ -110 (1.91)

Miami (9-8) was the only team without 10-plus losses that the Chargers beat last year. Tua Tagovailoa completed 10-of-28 passes for the lowest completion percentage (35.7%) in a game in his NFL career. His 25% bad throw rate was his worst game of 2022. Maybe the Chargers can defend better than expected again, but this is a game for Herbert to take over again with healthy receivers like he had in the 23-17 win last year. He has a new weapon in rookie wideout Quentin Johnston from TCU who has good size. Look for the Kellen Moore-coached offense to make a statement in Week 1 and lead the Chargers to a win.

Prediction 2: Justin Herbert over 37.5 pass attempts @ -110 (1.91)  

Herbert is the only quarterback in NFL history to average over 40 pass attempts per game in his career (40.1). He has gone over 37.5 attempts in 11 games in each of the last two seasons. He threw 51 passes against Miami last year (completing a season-high 39) despite the Chargers never trailing. With Herbert’s over/under at 290.5 passing yards, note that he threw over 37.5 passes in all 7 games last year when he passed for over 290 yards. The Chargers will lean heavily on Herbert in this game either way, so this is a good over pick.

Chargers vs Dolphins preview – Which coordinator wins the battle?

The Chargers did a good job against the Miami offense last year, but the strength-on-strength matchup gets a new look with Kellen Moore taking over as the Chargers’ offensive coordinator and Vic Fangio as Miami’s defensive coordinator.

Los Angeles Chargers form, news and injuries

The Chargers start the season relatively healthy, but they need to stay that way, especially at the best positions like wide receiver, edge rusher, and corner. The team will be excited to see Kellen Moore’s offense in action as he takes over at offensive coordinator.

Los Angeles Chargers injury report:

  • WR Jalen Guyton (knee) is out
  • DL Otito Ogbonnia (kneecap) is out
  • OT Andrew Trainer (undisclosed) is out
  • OLB Chris Rumph II (hamstring) is questionable
  • LB Daiyan Henley (hamstring) is questionable

Miami Dolphins form, news and injuries

The Dolphins start this season without big corner acquisition Jalen Ramsey. That could hurt against the Chargers more than most opponents. Terron Armstead is also questionable with multiple injuries. But the Dolphins’ main goal this year is for Tua Tagovailoa to avoid any more concussions.

Miami Dolphins injury report:

  • WR Jaylen Waddle (abdomen) is probable
  • CB Jalen Ramsey (knee) is out
  • OT Terron Armstead (back/ankle/knee) is questionable
  • RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (finger) is out
  • CB Justin Bethel (knee) is questionable
  • DB Keion Crossen (undisclosed) is out
  • DB Elijah Campbell (leg) is questionable
  • TE Julian Hill (ankle) is questionable
  • CB Nik Needham (Achilles) is out
  • OL Robert Jones (knee) is out
  • LB Zeke Vandenburgh (knee) is out

Chargers vs Dolphins head to head record

The Dolphins are 19-17 vs. Chargers all time, but the Chargers won the last meeting:

  • 2022: Chargers won 23-17 at home
  • 2020: Dolphins won 29-21 at home
  • 2019: Chargers won 30-10 in Miami
  • 2017: Dolphins won 19-17 in Carson
  • 2016: Dolphins won 31-24 in San Diego

Key match details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, September 10, 2023, 04:25 p.m. ET
  • Venue: SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, CA
  • Where to watch match in UK: Sky Sports (TV), fuboTV, or other live stream

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