Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction and odds

The Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills are meeting in the early Game of the Year in the AFC. The Dolphins come in hot after scoring 70 points, and Buffalo has scored 75 over the last two wins.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction
Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins – Game predictions

The Bills are a 2.5-point home favorite with a total of 53.5 points. The spread opened at Bills -3.5 before money came in on the Dolphins following last week’s historic performance.

Prediction 1: Over 53.5 @ -110 (1.91)

These teams played 3 games decided by 8 total points last year, so the best bet is on the total going over. The teams met in snowy Buffalo last year and played a 32-29 game. They met again in the playoffs, and despite Miami starting rookie Skylar Thompson at quarterback, it was a 34-31 game. With the Dolphins coming off 726 yards and 70 points and Buffalo’s ability to score against what has been an unimpressive Miami offense, there is no reason this one should not go over 53.5 points too. Someone is putting up 30 points in this game.

Prediction 2: Stefon Diggs anytime touchdown scorer @ +118 (2.18)

Josh Allen has thrown multiple touchdown passes in 11 straight games against Miami, the longest streak in NFL history for a quarterback against a single opponent. If he is going to continue this streak, he should find his best receiver, Stefon Diggs. The two have already connected on a score this year, and Diggs is facing a secondary that still does not have Jaylen Ramsey available at corner due to his meniscus injury. Trust Diggs to score at least once here.

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins odds

The Dolphins have +130 (2.30) odds on the moneyline, implying they have a 43.5% chance to win this game. The Bills have -155 (1.65) odds, which is a 60.8% chance of victory.

Bills vs Dolphins preview – Who can get a stop?

With two great offenses, it will likely come down to turnovers, which is how Miami almost upset the Bills in the playoffs last year.

Buffalo Bills form, news and injuries

After Week 1’s disastrous loss in New York, the Bills still look great on both sides of the ball. The defense has been strong in every game, and Josh Allen’s only turnover since Week 1 was a pick on 3rd-and-20 against Washington. The Bills have the defense to slow Miami down, but they will have their hands full with this speed.

Buffalo Bills injury report:

  • LB Von Miller (Knee) – Out
  • S Jordan Poyer (Knee) – Out
  • RB Nyheim Hines (Knee) – Out
  • TE Zach Davidson (Knee) – Out
  • OT Tommy Doyle (Knee) – Out
  • LB Baylon Spector (Hamstring) – Out
  • WR Justin Shorter (Hamstring) – Out

Miami Dolphins form, news and injuries

The Dolphins come in red hot after one of the best offensive showings in NFL history. They scored 70 points on offense, which had never been done before in an NFL game. They also did it without No. 2 receiver Jaylen Waddle, who should be back from a concussion this week. The defense is where Miami needs to get better as new coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit has not been strong at all yet.

Miami Dolphins injury report:

  • OT Terron Armstead (Back/Ankle/Knee) – Questionable
  • LB Jaelan Phillips (Oblique) – Out
  • CB Jalen Ramsey (Knee) – Out
  • WR River Cracraft (Shoulder) – Out
  • OL Connor Williams (Groin) – Questionable
  • S DeShon Elliott (Ankle/Groin) – Questionable
  • DB Keion Crossen (Undisclosed) – Out
  • RB Jeff Wilson Jr. (Finger) – Out
  • CB Nik Needham (Achilles) – Out
  • RB Salvon Ahmed (Groin) – Questionable
  • OL Robert Jones (Knee) – Out
  • WR Erik Ezukanma (Neck) – Out
  • LB Zeke Vandenburgh (Knee) – Out

Bills vs Dolphins head to head record

Miami leads the all-time series 62-56-1. Here are the results of the last 5 matchups:

  • 2022 (Wild Card): Bills 34, Dolphins 31 in Buffalo
  • 2022: Bills 32, Dolphins 29 in Buffalo
  • 2022: Dolphins 21, Bills 19 in Miami
  • 2021: Bills 26, Dolphins 11 in Buffalo
  • 2021: Bills 35, Dolphins 0 in Miami

Key match details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, October 1, 2023, 01:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Highmark Stadium in Buffalo, NY
  • Where to watch match in UK: Sky Sports (TV), fuboTV, or other live stream

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