Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Finals

The title-favourites Denver Nuggets restored their home-court advantage in the NBA Finals  with a convincing 109-94 win in game 3 in Miami that gave them a 2-1 lead. The Heat need to react and fast if they still want to lift the trophy, with the coming game 4 seen by many as a must-win from Miami’s point of view.

These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

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Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets – Game Predictions

The Nuggets are 10-1 in their last 11 playoff games and they look like an unstoppable machine right now. Yet, the Heat only a few days ago delivered Denver their first home loss in the postseason and if there is a team reacting fiercely to adversity that is Miami. With all still to play for here are our free betting tips for game 4 of the NBA Finals.

Prediction 1: Miami Heat Over 103.5 Points

The Heat covered this point spread only once so far in this series. They stayed below 100 points in their 2 defeats vs the Nuggets. However, Miami averaged 109.5 points per game during the regular season. They also average 107.2 points per game in the postseason. All that added to the fact that the Heat will be playing with desperation as they trail 1-2 makes us believe that they will cover their points spread in game 4. After all, Miami scored 111 points in Denver in game 2 when they won too.

Prediction 2: Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 Steals

So far in the NBA Finals Jimmy Butler hasn’t been very good. He failed to record a steal in any of the last 2 games vs the Nuggets and had only 1 steal in game 1. Yet, even with these returns, Butler continues to lead all players in the postseason for steals per game with 1.8. This is exactly his average for steals per game during the regular season too so more often than not Butler gets at least 2 steals per match.

Jimmy has come time and time again to Miami’s rescue when they looked doomed this campaign and we expect a big game from him now. For Butler, all starts at the defensive end where he always puts much more effort so we back him to finally show why he leads the entire NBA in steals per game in the postseason by covering his spread for game 4.

Heat vs Nuggets Preview – Can Miami Level the Series Again?

The Miami Heat need to be doing a much better job defensively to stand any chance of winning game 4. Allowing Nikola Jokic to get his didn’t hurt them much in game 2 when they won in Denver. However, allowing both Jokic and Murray to record triple doubles in game 3 was devastating. It seems the Heat had given up trying to slow down Jokic but they are expected to gang up on Murray and force the ball out of his hands as often as they can in an attempt to level this series once more.

For Denver, the plan remains the same as it had been all throughout their historic playoff run. Let Jokic run the show and keep using the devastating Jokic-Murray pick-and-roll that no defence has figured out how to stop so far.

Miami Heat News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

The Heat continue to be missing 2 important guards that normally would have given them 25-30 points between them per game. The season is over for the long-term absentee Victor Oladipo. Unfortunately for the Heat, Tyler Herro is still listed as out too, even though they expected him back after suffering a broken hand in the opening-round series against the Milwaukee Bucks.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

Victor Oladipo is out for the Heat for Game 4. Tyler Herro is out too.

Miami Heat Starting Lineup:

Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Jimmy Butler, and Bam Adebayo.

Denver Nuggets News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

The Nuggets are enjoying a clean bill of health ahead of game 4.

Denver Nuggets Injury Report:

None listed.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup:

Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, and Nikola Jokic.

Heat vs Nuggets Head to Head Record In 2023

The Nuggets won both of the regular season games against the Heat.

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Game Details

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets

  • Date & Time: Saturday, June 10, 2023, 01:30 am GMT (Friday, June 09 08:30 pm ET)
  • Venue: Keseya Center, Miami, FL
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), or other live stream

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.