2023 NBA Finals Predictions and Betting Tips

With the 2023 NBA Finals upon us, we give you some detailed analyses, useful stats and lots of outright and game-per-game free betting tips below. Will the Denver Nuggets win their first NBA Title? Or will the Miami Heat become the first-ever 8th seed to win the title? Let us start with some outright predictions.

These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

NBA Finals Predictions
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Our Outright 2023 NBA Finals Predictions

Denver Nuggets Champions

Our first NBA Finals betting prediction backs the Nuggets to win their first-ever NBA title. Denver reached their first NBA Finals with a 12-3 playoff run. At home, they are 8-0. Their leader Nikola Jokic is averaging a triple double so far in these playoffs. His main helpers Murray and Gordon are also playing above their regular season averages and as a result, Denver have by far the best attack in the postseason – 120.7 points per 100 possessions.

There is a reason why Denver’s odds for the title are so low and this is all Denver’s doing as they were hugely decisive in all of their playoff series. At the same time, Miami already defied the odds twice and they needed 7 games in the Eastern Conference finals so fatigue will play a huge factor at least in the first few games and we’ve already seen that it’s hard to beat the Nuggets once they storm into an early lead in a playoff series.

Odds: 1/4 (-400)

NBA Finals MVP – Nikola Jokic

Our second NBA Finals betting tip backs Nikola Jokic to win the Finals MVP trophy. Jokic was just crowned the Western Conference finals MVP. He’s putting in historic numbers so far in these playoffs – 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists. There hasn’t been a defence that could stop him and if Denver are to win the title it will be very likely that Jokic will be their most valuable player.

Jamal Murray might have something to say about that as he is playing at an all-time great level in the playoffs. However, no big has ever averaged a triple double in the playoffs and Jokic already broke the all-time NBA record for the most playoff triple doubles in the same season, so we back the Serbian to add to his cabinet this trophy he has never had the chance to win before.

Odds: 1/3 (-300)

Nuggets to Win Game 1 and to Win the Series

Our last NBA Finals prediction for game 1 is a more broader one. We back the Nuggets to win both game 1 and the entire series. Denver had an impressive home record during the regular season but they had been even better this postseason with an 8-0 run at Ball Arena. We don’t think they will make the mistake to start these finals with a loss and if Denver takes the lead in this series in which they are the heavy favourites anyway we can see them running away with things and lifting the title.

Odds: 4/9 (-255)

NBA Finals Betting Predictions For Game 2

We’ll get specific now! While you can see a bunch of outright NBA Finals betting tips above now we’ll focus all our attention on game 2 which viewers from all around the world can enjoy watching on their screens even if they can’t make it to Denver.

Max Struss Under 1.5 Assists

Our first NBA Finals betting tip for game 5 of the NBA Finals looks at Miami’s point guard Max Struss and more specifically his chances to cover his assists spread. With the ball spending so much time in the hands of veterans Jimmy Butler and Kyle Lowry the role Struss has on the court is to get free for an open shot. Naturally, this limits his chances to be producing assists and he’s averaging only 1.5 assists per game. Struss had 0 assists in game 4 of the Finals. He also failed to cover his assists spread in 6 of the 7 Eastern Conference finals games vs the Celtics. Now with Miami’s season on the line as they trail 1-3 we expect Jimmy Butler to have the ball even more in his hands so we don’t this Struss will be able to go over his assists spread.

Odds: 7/10 (-167)

Aaron Gordon Under 3.5 Assists

Our second NBA Finals betting tip for game 5 looks at Denver’s power forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon had an amazing game 4 when he scored 27 points on top of guarding Jimmy Butler successfully at the other end of the floor. Denver found a major advantage in attack with Gordon using his big body to cause havoc in the paint once Jokic draws Adebayo out of it.

This was how Gordon got his 27 points in game 4. The same game plan is expected to be used again now in game 5. Naturally, with Gordon asked to go deep and score points his assists stats are going down. Gordon is averaging 2.7 assists this postseason and we don’t think finding open teammates will be his priority in game 5 as he had such great success scoring the ball himself.

Odds: 8/13 (-163)

Aaron Gordon
Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Nuggets Over 20 Points In Each Quarter

Our last NBA Finals prediction for game 5 backs the Denver Nuggets to score at least 20 points in each of the 4 quarters. They did that in all 16 quarters of the NBA Finals so far. The Nuggets are yet to score fewer than 20 points in a quarter vs the Heat this season. Not only they scored 20 or more in all 16 quarters in these finals but they also scored more than 20 points in each quarter of the 2 regular season matches between the sides. Clearly, on all their defensive greatness Miami are unable to slow down Denver’s attack and that’s why we back the Nuggets to once more score over 20 points in each of the 4 quarters of game 5.

Odds: 4/6 (-167)

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.