2023 NBA Finals Odds – Which Team Is Favored to Win It All?

Bam Adebayo
Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

The NBA Finals begin Thursday evening between the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat. The NBA Finals odds strongly favor one team over the other, but if this postseason has taught us anything, it is to never count a team out.

With an exciting series expected between the Heat and Nuggets, we look at the team’s NBA Finals chances to win it all with live odds from William Hill sportsbook.

2023 NBA Playoffs Recap

This has already been a historic postseason with two teams who played in the play-in tournament (Heat and Lakers) both winning multiple playoff series.

The Heat pulled off a stunning upset of the top-seeded Bucks in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, the first time since 2012 where a top two seed in the East lost in the first round. Miami then beat the Knicks in a slightly tougher series before taking a 3-0 lead on No. 2 Boston. The Celtics fought back to force Game 7 after an incredible 104-103 finish in Game 6, but the Heat dominated on Monday night to win Game 7 and take the series.

The Western Conference had a weird battle in the regular season, but Denver has been the best team for a while and claimed the No. 1 seed. It has lived up to expectations in the playoffs by easily dispatching Minnesota, knocking the Suns off in Game 6 in a blowout, and sweeping the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals to reach the Finals for the first time as a franchise.

Denver Nuggets (-380 to Win NBA Finals)

Nikola Jokic
Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

The NBA Finals Favorites are clearly the Denver Nuggets, who are -380 to win at a top sportsbook like William Hill. Over the last 16 seasons, the only Finals with a bigger favorite going into Game 1 was the 2018 Warriors, who were -1075 against the Cavaliers. That series ended in a sweep by Golden State.

The Nuggets are 12-3 this postseason with a perfect 8-0 record at home where they have been strong all season. Denver is also 2-0 against Miami, winning 124-119 back in December in the only meeting in Denver between the teams this year. Denver needed an 8-point comeback in the fourth quarter that day, but Nikola Jokic put up great numbers against the Heat and will have a significant size advantage over this team.

Jokic had a good argument to win his third-straight MVP award, but voter fatigue gave it to Joel Embiid. Jokic has proven his worth in the playoffs where he already has eight triple-doubles, a new single season record for the playoffs.

As well as Jokic has played, Jamal Murray is a huge story for the Nuggets. Finally healthy, he just averaged 32.5 points per game against the Lakers and has been an excellent No. 2 piece to Jokic. The role players have also done a great job, including Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Aaron Gordon, and Bruce Brown.

With Denver’s size, offensive efficiency, and homecourt advantage, the Nuggets are a worthy favorite in the NBA Finals to win their first championship.

Miami Heat (+300 to Win NBA Finals)

The Heat were a No. 1 seed last season, but they fell to No. 8 this year after suffering the most player injuries of any team in the playoff field. Miami even needed a late rally in the play-in game against Chicago just to get in the tournament at all. Despite losing Tyler Herro in Game 1 of the first round, the Heat have pulled off three upsets to become the first No. 8 seed to reach the NBA Finals in a full season and a best-of-7 playoff format in every round.

Miami was dead last in scoring at 109.5 points per game in the regular season, but Jimmy Butler and company have stepped it up in the playoffs. Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson are just some of the undrafted, unheralded players who are helping the Heat get this far.

Head coach Erik Spoelstra is doing wonders for his legacy. His six wins in the Conference Finals are tied for the third most in NBA history. He will attempt to improve on his 2-3 record in the Finals.

Butler has been fantastic for Miami and has earned his Playoff Jimmy reputation. But the Heat are doing this as a team with six comeback wins from double-digit deficits. They do not panic when they trail, and they are an incredible 13-5 ATS in the playoffs as bookmakers keep doubting them.

ESPN Analytics gave the Heat a 3% chance to beat Boston, and most had the Heat dead after losing Game 6 on a buzzer-beating tip. But the Heat continue to prevail, and they are 9-2 in Game 1s under Butler. You have to still give them a fighting chance to give Denver a tough series.

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