Tour de France Stage 19 Odds and Predictions

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The 2023 Tour de France is heading fast towards its final weekend and many overlook the coming Stage 19. However, we think the profile of the stage and the nature of the final 30 km guarantee a thrilling finish. Will a breakaway survive the inevitable mighty push from the main group full of sprinters? Could the ‘Tour’s fastest man’ Jasper Philipsen grab his 5th stage win? Read on for our Tour de France Stage 19 odds and predictions.

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Tour de France Stage 19 Profile

The 172,8km Stage 19 on Friday, July 21st, is one of the more interesting and unpredictable stages of this year’s Tour. It seems there is an even 50-50 chance for a breakaway to be successful and for this to be a grand spring finish after a drag race for the final 10 kilometres. Here’s what the riders will face during the day.

Stage 19 starts at Moirans-en-Montagne and relatively early there is a 4th category climb that is likely to produce the first breakaway What follows is over 100 km of jagged roads filled with constant short climbs and downhills. This will make it almost impossible for the main group to control the pace and a series of breakaways can be expected.

The culmination of the stage is expected to transpire during the final 28 km. First, the riders will hit the Category 3 Côte d’Ivory climb but then 19km from the finish line a sharp left turn in the town of Aumont takes the riders on a long straight flat road right to the finish line in Poligny. The final 9.4km literally has no bends or roundabouts, only a flat straight road right to the finish line. This promises to make it an exciting drag race between a likely breakaway and a fast approaching peloton full of sprinters. Who will prevail, this is the main question for stage 19.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 19

With the Tour de France stage 19 odds clearly undecided on if this will be a sprint finish or a breakaway rider would win it’s not a huge surprise that a very even mixture of sprinters and dangerous breakaway riders dominate the list of main contenders for the stage win.

Our Outright Prediction: Jasper Philipsen @ 4/1 (5.00)

The flying Belgian Jasper Philipsen won all 4 sprint finishes so far during the 2023 Tour de France. He has the green jersey for the best sprinter all but secured already. After having not much to do but ride within the time limits during 4 of the last 6 stages and then missing out on the win on Thursday during stage 18 when the breakaway outsmarted him now Philipsen will be eager to shine again.

There is no reason why we should doubt that he won’t be able to make it 5 sprint wins out of 5. On top of the fact that Philipsen is widely considered the ‘Tour’s fastest man’ he also has an amazing team that gives him the best possible approach to the line on such a long and straight flat terrain as is the finish of stage 19. In the ultra-fast in his own right Van der Poel, the Belgian can rely on a very good pace-setter as the peloton approaches the final kilometre.

Our Each-way Prediction: Nils Politt @ 1/2 (1.50)

With our safer each-way betting tip, which pays off if the rider finishes in the top 3, we back the powerful German Nils Politt. The profile of stage 19 suits Politt to the teeth and if he can enter the slingshot final 10km with at least a minute lead over the peloton it would be hard to catch Politt.

Politt is one of at least a dozen riders that could be part of the breakaway but the German has the power and physic to be dominant in such a terrain with the very long and straight drag finish stretch before the line giving him a huge advantage. Politt’s only previous Tour de France stage win in 2021 came in a very similar profile stage. He is clearly in very good form right now after winning the German Road Race Championship in 2022 and also earlier this year being crowned German Time Trial Champion. If a breakaway is successful and Politt is in it we simply can’t see him missing out on a top 3 finish.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Stefan Kung @ 50/1 (51.00)

For our dark horse winner pick we select the Swiss Stefan Kung from Groupama-FDJ. Kung’s team are actively looking for their first win of this year’s Tour and they are expected to be sending riders often in breakaways between now and Paris.

In the plausible scenario, a breakaway succeeds to stay in front during stage 19 we can see the time trial and one-day classic specialist Kung fancying his chances if he is in front of the main group once the road straightens for the final 9.4km. Late on during this stage will be all about pacing yourself so you don’t run out of steam before the line. Being a 2-time European Time Trial Champion (2020 and 2021) Kung knows better than most how to do that. This is why we back him for the win as the possible dark horse.

Tour de France Stage 19 Odds

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 19:

Jasper Philipsen 4/1 (5.00)

Mads Pedersen 6/1 (7.00)

Mathieu van der Poel 6/1 (7.00)

Magnus Cort Nielsen 10/1 (11.00)

Matej Mohoric 13/1 (14.00)

Soren Kragh Andersen 16/1 (17.00)

Nils Politt 17/1 (18.00)

Christophe Laporte 19/1 (20.00)

Matteo Trentin 22/1 (23.00)

Fred Wright 22/1 (23.00)

Our first 2 picks from above are among the top 10 favourites for the stage win. The list is evenly split between 5 sprinters and 5 dangerous riders that could be part of a breakaway. It will all depend on whether the brave solo riders could stay in front of the main group all the way.

Our dark horse pick Kung is an outside shot for the win as we don’t think he will be able to keep up with any breakaway riders during the final climb. If he manages to stay in touch though, who knows?

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