Tour de France Stage 18 Odds and Predictions

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The 2023 Tour de France left the Alps on Wednesday with stage 17 possibly deciding the destiny of the yellow jersey after the defending champion Jonas Vingegaard made a decisive move on his main rival Tadej Pogacar. With the steep mountains behind us and the yellow jersey race all but decided we focus our attention back on the sprinters. Could the ‘Tour’s fastest man’ Jasper Philipsen grab his 5th stage win?

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Tour de France Stage 18 Profile

After 5 gruelling days, 4 tough stages in the Alps and a demanding time trial, the riders would be glad to get back to much easier and flatter terrain in stage 18. The coming Thursday is likely to be all about the sprinters again with the 184.9km stage 18 between Moutiers and Bourg-en-Bresse. The terrain of stage 18 is pretty easy with lots of downhill early on during what is expected to be a hectic final few kilometres as the sprinters fight for positions.

The chances of a breakaway being successful in stage 18 are very slim. The most likely outcome will be a sprint finish and here we give you more details about the approach to the line. The run-in to the finish of stage 18 is expected to be fast. The road trends downhill during the final few kilometres and it passes several roundabouts. There is a tricky hard left-hander 1,400 metres before the line but then the road straightens and the riders will be able to see the finish from 650 metres out. From that point, it will be all about the fastest man out there.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 18

With the Tour de France stage 18 odds favouring only the sprinters it is obvious that everyone, including us, expects a sprint finish. The fact that 3 of the most experienced sprinters out there – Mark Cavendish, Caleb Ewan and Fabio Jakobsen – are already out of this Tour leaves the 4-time stage winner already in 2023 Jasper Philipsen with much fewer other riders to worry about. Here are the Stage 18 odds and our predictions.

Our Outright Prediction: Jasper Philipsen @ 1/1 (2.00)

The flying Belgian Jasper Philipsen won all 4 sprint finishes so far during the 2023 Tour de France. He has the green jersey for the best sprinter all but secured already. After having not much to do but ride within the time limits during 4 of the last 5 stages now Philipsen will be eager to shine again.

There is no reason why we should doubt that he won’t be able to make it 5 sprint wins out of 5. On top of the fact that Philipsen is widely considered the ‘Tour’s fastest man’ he also has an amazing team that gives him the best possible approach to the line. In the ultra-fast in his own right Van der Poel, the Belgian can rely on a very good pace-setter as the peloton approaches the final kilometre.

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Our Each-way Prediction: Wout Van Aaert @ 11/10 (2.10)

With our safer each-way betting tip, which pays off if the rider finishes in the top 3, we back the highly ambitious Wout Van Aert. He is yet to win a stage of the 2023 Tour and Van Aert is itching to do so soon. Van Aert won the green jersey last year, he is a 9-time stage winner at Tour de France and really has all the pedigree to be considered a serious contender for the win in the coming stage 18. Even, if we don’t think he has the explosiveness of Philipsen we still think Van Aert should be among the top 3 at the end of the stage.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Stefan Kung @ 150/1 (151.00)

For our dark horse winner pick we select the Swiss Stefan Kung from Groupama-FDJ. Kung’s team are actively looking for their first win of this year’s Tour and they are expected to be sending riders often in breakaways between now and Paris.

In the very unlikely scenario a breakaway succeeds to stay in front during stage 18 we can see the time trial and one-day classic specialist Kung being among those in the breakaway. Late on during this stage will be all about pacing yourself so you don’t run out of steam before the line. Being a 2-time European Time Trial Champion (2020 and 2021) Kung knows better than most how to do that. This is why we back him for the win as the possible dark horse. However, his odds clearly show that the chances of a breakaway being successful are considered very slim.

Tour de France Stage 18 Odds

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 18:

Jasper Philipsen 1/1 (2.00)

Wout Van Aert 5/1 (6.00)

Dylan Groenewegen 6/1 (7.00)

Mads Pedersen 10/1 (11.00)

Magnus Cort Nielsen 20/1 (21.00)

Mathieu van der Poel 20/1 (21.00)

Bryan Coquard 25/1 (26.00)

Sam Welsford 25/1 (26.00)

Alexander Kristoff 40/1 (41.00)

Biniam Girmay 40/1 (41.00)

Our first 2 picks from above are the top 2 favourites to win the stage and understandably so. We think that the Tour de France Stage 18 odds are telling as to who are the main contenders for the stage win. Van Aert and Philipsen have only Groenewegen to worry about, but so far in this Tour, he has shown an inability to accelerate in the final few meters.

Our dark horse pick Kung is a really outside shot for the win as we don’t think there is much chance a breakaway will be successful. Still, this is Tour de France and as we all know anything is possible!

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