Tour de France Stage 16 Odds and Predictions

The 2023 Tour de France is about to enter its 3rd and final week and in stage 16 right after the rest day, we are about to witness the only individual time trial. Could the battle for the yellow jersey be decided during the 22.4 km between Passy and Combloux. Pogacar and Vingegaard are once again the favourites. Other time trial specialists will fancy their chances too though. Below, we give you 3 free betting tips and the main Tour de France Stage 16 odds you need to know.

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 16

After 3 consecutive thrilling days in the Alps right before the final rest day of this year’s Tour and nothing between the two big favourites  Pogacar over Vingegaard, many think that this Tuesday’s time trial could be decisive in the race for the yellow jersey. This stage will be all about if the main GC contenders  could hurt each other decisively and gain significant time. However, there is the stage win to think about too and at least a dozen other time trial specialists eye this only individual time trial of this year’s Tour as their best chance to win a stage. Here are our Tour de France stage 16 odds and picks.

Our Outright Prediction: Jonas Vingegaard @ 6/4 (2.50)

The 2022 Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard enters the final week of this year’s Tour with a slender 10-second lead over the winner from the previous 2 years Tadej Pogacar. So far, it has been all about who will be better between Pogacar and Vingegaard when it comes to the tough climbs and we can expect more of the same during the time trial too. The two big guns are also the two odds on favourites to win stage 16.

Danish Jonas Vingegaard of Jumbo-Visma and Belgian Wout Van Aert of Team Jumbo-Visma pictured in action during stage 20 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 40,7km individual time trial from Lacapelle-Marival to Rocamadour, France, on Saturday 23 July 2022. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 24 July 2022. BELGA PHOTO DAVID STOCKMAN – UK OUT – Photo by Icon sport

We think that Vingegaard starting the time trial last as the current yellow jersey holder and knowing the target he has to beat will give him a decisive edge and that’s why we back him to win. Our pick, also takes into consideration that the final third of this time trial is a steady climb. We think this will suit the much more powerful Vingegaard better and he will capitalise on the terrain to claim the win.

Our Each-way Prediction: Wout Van Aaert @ 3/5 (1.60)

With our safer each-way betting tip, pays off if the rider finishes in the top 3, we back the winner of the individual time trial during the last Tour de France Wout Van Aert. Van Aert is an excellent rider against the clock. The teammate of Vingegaard at Jumbo-Visma will certainly be hoping to finally get a stage win but even if he fails we think he will make the podium. The profile of this time trial suits Van Aert as he prefers uphill and tends to excel on such terrain.

Van Aert will be pretty motivated for another reason too. As he will start a few minutes before his team leader Vingegaard he will try to set up very strong intermediate times so his team leader could have strong targets to chase.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Remi Cavagna @ 50/1 (51.00)

For our dark horse winner pick we select the French national time trial champion Remi Cavagna from Soudal-Quick-Step. Seeking his first win of the Tour de France the local rider will certainly give it his all. Cavagna is a powerhouse when it comes to time trials and although the uphill terrain near the end is not ideal for his skills he’s certainly capable of gritting his teeth and powering through.

The reigning French national time trial champion came into the Tour in fine form as he finished 3rd during the Critérium du Dauphiné, only behind Vingegaard and Bjerg. Cavagna displayed his time trial skills during that race and we think he is a punt worth considering.

Tour de France Stage 16 Odds

Tour de France Stage 16 Odds

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 16:

Tadej Pogacar 5/4 (2.25)

Jonas Vingegaard 6/4 (2.50)

Wout Van Aert 5/1 (6.00)

Adam Yates 14/1 (15.00)

Simon Yates 40/1 (41.00)

Remi Cavagna 50/1 (51.00)

Matthias Skjelmose 50/1 (51.00)

Carlos Rodriguez 66/1 (67.00)

Tom Pidcock 66/1 (67.00)

Stefan Kung 80/1 (81.00)

All of our 3  picks from above are among the top 10 favourites for the stage and understandably so.

The expectations are that with the race for the yellow jersey so close + both Pogacar and Vingegaard being very accomplished time trialists it would be one of them to win this stage. However, any of the other 8 riders in the top 10 could claim the win too if they feel particularly strong on the day. Van Aert proved that during the last Tour de France time trial in 2022 when he beat both Pogacar and Vingegaard.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.