Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty game 1 prediction and odds: 2023 WNBA Finals

The 2023 WNBA Finals are about to begin and fittingly it was the two ‘superteams’ as everyone labelled even before the season started that reached them. The number 1 seed Las Vegas Aces try to become the first team to defend their title in 21 years. The number 2 seed New York Liberty are gunning for their first-ever WNBA title in what is their first Finals appearance in 21 years. Who will gain an early advantage? Here are our Aces vs Liberty predictions for game 1.

Aces vs Liberty scaled
Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty – game predictions

This Finals series sees the last 4 MVPs and 5 number 1 Draft picks take to the court, so we’re really spoiled for choice regarding player props.

Prediction 1: Jonquel Jones over 13.5 points @ -115 (1.87)  

The 2021 WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones is seen by many as the likely X-factor in this final. With Wilson and Stewart expected to be locked in a thug-of-war battle Jones seems to have a clear advantage inside the paint. This is why we think she will score at least 14 points in game 1 of the Finals.

Jones averages 16.5 points per game this postseason and she averaged 15.4 points in the regular-season series vs the Aces. That’s why she is an easy pick for us to go over her spread in game 1.

Prediction 2: Sabrina Ionescu over 4.5 rebounds @ -145 (1.69)

We stay with another Liberty player for our next pick. We think Sabrina Ionescu will grab at least 5 rebounds in game 1 of the Finals. Ionescu averaged 5.6 rebounds per game during the regular season. Her numbers have dropped to just 4.5 rebounds in the playoffs. However, she averaged 5.3 rebounds in the series vs the Aces so we think she will be able to get over 4 rebounds again in game 1.

These odds were correct at the time of writing.

Aces vs Liberty preview – which MVP will dominate game 1?

This Finals series will see the WNBA MVPs for all of the last 4 years clash. So, who among those biggest of stars can dominate in game 1?

Lib vs Aces scaled
Candice Ward-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Las Vegas Aces news, injuries, and starting lineups

The Aces are the defending champions. They have by far the best home record in the WNBA with 22-1. They are yet to lose a game in the playoffs. Yet, they try to do something nobody has done since 2002 – defend a WNBA title.

The Aces know that this will be their ultimate test. Despite having in their ranks the WNBA MVP for 2020 and 2022 A’ja Wilson, last year’s Finals MVP Chelsea Gray, and three number 1 Draft picks (Plum, Young and Wilson) they now face a team that beat them in 3 of their last 4 meetings. Can the Aces find a way to dominate the perimeter against the Liberty as they usually do against most other teams?

Aces Injury Report:


Aces Starting Lineup:

Kelsey Plum, Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young, A’ja Wilson, Alysha Clark

New York Liberty news, injuries, and starting lineups

New York Liberty enter their fifth WNBA Finals, but first since 2002. The Liberty have lost all of the previous 4 Finals they contested and their desire to finally win their first WNBA title is burning stronger than ever.

The freshly crowned 2023 MVP Breanna Stewart and the 2021 MVP Jonquel Jones are probably the only two players on this planet that can slow down A’ja Wilson. The Liberty have them both and they hope that this will be crucial.

Liberty arrived in the Finals as the team with the best away record in the league 20-3. They won all of their 3 away games in the playoffs so far and also will feel confident after winning 3 of the last 4 matches vs the Aces, including the Commissioner’s Cup final back in August.

Liberty Injury Report:

Han Xu (C) – out

Liberty Starting Lineup:

Courtney Vandersloot, Sabrina Ionescu, Breanna Stewart, Betnijah Laney, Jonquel Jones

Aces vs Liberty head-to-head record in 2023

  • 28.08.23 WNBA New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces 94-85
  • 18.08.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 88-75
  • 16.08.23 CF Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 63-82
  • 06.08.23 WNBA New York Liberty vs Las Vegas Aces 99-61
  • 30.06.23 WNBA Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty 98-81

Las Vegas Aces vs New York Liberty game details

  • Date & Time: Sunday, October 08, 2023, 08:00 p.m. GMT / 03:00 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Michelob Ultra Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Where to watch the match: Sky Sports Arena (UK/Ireland), ABC (USA), Hulu TV, fuboTV, or the WNBA App/League Pass

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.