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The No. 1 seeded Denver Nuggets (52-29) will try and take a 2-0 lead over the No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves (42-40) on Wednesday night at Ball Arena. The Nuggets are coming off a 109-80 victory in game one of the NBA Playoffs.
Prediction 1
Karl-Anthony Towns over 20.5 points Player prop
10/11 (-110)
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Prediction 2
Jamal Murray to make over 2.5 threes Player prop
5/8 (-160)
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These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.
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Minnesota vs Denver – Game Predictions
Contents
Oddsmakers have the Nuggets as 8-point spread favorites and -384 on the moneyline compared to the Timberwolves (underdogs) at +252. The game total is set at 223.5 points.
Bettors have put 56% of their wagers on Denver to cover the spread and 98% of the money on Michael Malone’s team to win straight up.
Prediction 1: Karl-Anthony Towns over 20.5 points @ 10/11 (-110)
Towns’ line for total points is currently set at 0.3 points lower than his season average of 20.8 points per game.
In every month the former Kentucky Wildcat has played this season, he’s never averaged below 20.5 points.
Towns averaged 21.3 points per game in October, followed by November (20.5), March (21) and is averaging 20.5 points through five contests in April.
The 27-year-old struggled in game one, shooting 5-for-15 (33.3%) from the field, including 14.3% from long range. He’s usually much better, with his season average being 49.5% (FG) and 36.6% from downtown.
In the blowout, Towns only scored 11 points. His prop was set at 23.5 points for the outing, so dropping three points seems favorable for bettors at nearly even money odds. He should bounce back in game 2 and shoot at a much higher clip.
In his last 20 games, Towns has scored over 20.5 points on 12 occasions (60% of the time). He also had a recent three-game stretch in April where he scored at least 22 points. From Oct. 24 to Nov. 7, the New Jersey native enjoyed an eight-game run scoring 21 or more points.
In matches where Towns failed to score more than 20.5 points, he’s come back and beat the prop 87.5% (7-for-8) of the time in the following game.
With Gobert listed as questionable with back spasms and facing potentially limited minutes, Towns should earn more minutes and have even more looks.
Prediction 2: Jamal Murray to make over 2.5 three-pointers 5/8 (-160)
Jamal Murray has continued to shine from beyond the arc this season by making 39.8% of his attempts.
The University of Kentucky product has hit the over (2.5) on three-point makes in nine of his last 10 games. In these outings, Murray has successfully converted at least four buckets 60% of the time.
The only game when Murray failed to hit beat the 2.5 was on Apr. 4, when he only played nine minutes.
Over his last five games, including Apr. 4, Murray has attempted 10, 10, 8, 1 and 10 three-pointers. During the 2022-2023 campaign, Murray is attempting 6.6 three-pointers per game and is averaging 2.6 makes.
The Timberwolves struggle against the three and are 25th in the NBA for opponent three-point percentage (36.9%).
The 26-year-old will likely continue his high volume of shots from downtown in game two and have plenty of opportunities to once again surpass the prop.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets: Can Denver coast out of the first round?
Denver is trying to make it out of the first round for the fourth time in five years. Last year, they were beaten 4-1 in round one by the eventual champions: The Golden State Warriors.
Minnesota
The Timberwolves are extreme long shots at 500-1 to win the NBA Title. Only five No. 8 seeds have pulled off the upset against No. 1 seeds since the NBA Playoffs expanded to 16 teams in the 1983-1984 season.
Wolves predicted lineup
- Mike Conley (PG)
- Anthony Edwards (SG)
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker (SF)
- Karl-Anthony Towns (PF)
- Rudy Gobert (C)
Gobert is questionable for the game with back spasms.
The Timberwolves are led by Anthony Edwards in scoring (24.6 ppg) and steals (1.6), while Kyle Anderson is first in assists (4.9). Gobert is the top rebounder with 11.6 per contest.
Minnesota is 5-5 in its previous ten games and 6-4 against the spread during the span. The franchise hasn’t reached the conference semifinals since the 2003-2004 season.
Denver
The Nuggets are the fifth betting favorite to win the NBA title at 8/1. The team opened the season at 18/1.
The organization has never reached the NBA Finals in its history. Denver recently made it to the conference finals in 2019-2020 but fell 4-1 to the Los Angeles Lakers.
Predicted lineup
- Jamal Murray (PG)
- Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (SG)
- Michael Porter Jr. (SF)
- Aaron Gordon (PF)
- Nikola Jokic (C)
Jokic is questionable for Wednesday’s contest with a wrist injury.
The reigning MVP leads the team in points (24.5), rebounds (11.8), and assists (9.8). Murray is second on the roster in points (20) and assists (6.2).
The Nuggets are 5-5 straight up and 4-6 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets: Head-to-Head Record In 2023
Denver leads Minnesota in head-to-head matchups 3-2 this season. The home team has won every game so far.
- Apr. 16: Nuggets 109 Timberwolves 80
- Feb. 7: Nuggets 146 Timberwolves 112
- Feb. 5: Timberwolves 128 Nuggets 98
- Jan. 18: Nuggets 122 Timberwolves 118
- Jan. 2: Timberwolves 124 Nuggets 111
Minnesota vs Denver Game Details
- Date & Time: Wednesday, April 19 at 10 p.m. ET
- Venue: Ball Arena – Denver, Colorado
- Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), FuboTV or another live stream
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