Los Angeles Lakers vs Denver Nuggets Game 4 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

The Los Angeles Lakers will attempt and extend their series (down 3-0) against the Denver Nuggets on Monday Night at Arena. The Nuggets are coming off Saturday night’s 119-108 triumph.

These odds from bet365 and William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction
Photo by Jim Ruymen/UPI/ABACAPRESS.COM – Photo by Icon Sport

Los Angeles vs Denver – Game Predictions 

Oddsmakers favor the Lakers (-3) on the spread and at -166 on the moneyline against the underdog Nuggets (+120). The total is set at 224.5 points.

Bettors have placed 80% of tickets on Denver to win straight up, while 65% of the handle is on Los Angeles to cover the spread. 68% of bets are currently on the score to hit the under.

Prediction 1: Lebron James over 0.5 blocks 20/31 (-155)

The 19-year veteran is facing a do-or-die situation Thursday as a loss will eliminate his team from the playoffs. This ensures he’ll likely be on the floor for 40 or more minutes giving him plenty of chances to record at least one block.

James has registered at least one block in 80% of the games (12-of-15) he’s played in this postseason.

In two of the three games where he failed to record a block, he played just 28 and 31 minutes. Since April, he’s three-for-three in blocking a shot in the following outing after failing to have one.

The four-time NBA champion is averaging 1.2 blocks per game during the postseason, which is over double what the prop is set at.

During the regular season, James averaged 0.6 blocks per game but his defensive prowess improved as games became more crucial later in the NBA calendar and during the playoffs.

Average blocks per game by month (regular season)

  • April: 0.8 
  • March: 0.7
  • February: 0.3
  • January: 0.5
  • December: 0.5
  • November: 0.8
  • October: 0.7

The -155 line is better than most other bookmakers offering him at -160.

Prediction 2: DeAngelo Russell over 3.5 assists @ 10/13 (-130) 

DeAngelo Russell has been riding the struggle bus all around for the last few games, especially in terms of scoring points and shooting percentage. This caused a dip in his minutes (20) for game 3, but head coach Darvin Ham says he’s going to stick with him and he needs to be more aggressive.

Sportsbooks have dropped his assists prop to just 3.5 because of his minutes, but if he plays his usual (30), he’ll likely beat the prop. Despite playing just 20 minutes, he still managed to record four assists in Saturday’s loss. 

The Ohio State product averaged 6.2 assists per game during the regular season, which is 2.7 more, nearly double what the prop is set at. In the playoffs, he’s averaging 4.8 assists per contest.

Russell has recorded more than 3.5 assists in 10 of the 15 outings in the postseason (66.6%). 

Average assists per game in each series

OpponentAverageNumber of games
Golden State4.26

The 27-year-old point guard never averaged less than 4.8 assists per game in any month during the regular season. 

Assists average per game by month (regular season)

  • April: 4.8
  • March: 7.1
  • February: 5.1
  • January: 5.8
  • December: 6
  • November: 7.1
  • October: 6

There is value to be found in the -130 being offered by William Hill Sportsbook. Other sportsbooks have the line set at -160.

Lakers vs Nuggets: Can LA extend the series?

The Lakers are facing a mountain no organization has ever climbed: come back and win a series against a 3-0 deficit.

James famously came back in the 2016 NBA Finals with the Cavaliers but was down 3-1. This time around, it’s unlikely Los Angeles will turn the tables and head to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2020.


The Lakers hold a 13-1 series price to beat the Nuggets. I highly recommend avoiding this bet. This has increased the team’s odds to win the finals to 32-1.

Los Angeles Lakers Injury Report:

Lebron James and Anthony Davis are dealing with foot problems but are expected to play.

Los Angeles Lakers Predicted Starting Lineup:

D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Lebron James, Jarred Vanderbilt and Anthony Davis.

James led the Lakers in both points per game (28.9) and assists (6.8) during the regular season. Davis finished first on the team in rebounds per game (12.5).


Michael Malone’s squad is currently the favorite to win the NBA title at 11/5 (-220) odds. The organization has never reached the NBA Finals.

Denver Nuggets Injury Report:

Collin Gillespie has been ruled out with a leg injury.

Denver Nuggets Starting Lineup:

Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokic

Jokic leads the team in points (24.5), rebounds (11.8), and assists (9.8). Murray is second in points (20) and assists per game (6.2).

Lakers vs Nuggets Head-to-Head Record In 2023

Los Angeles leads Denver in head-to-head matchups 5-2 this campaign.

Los Angeles vs Denver Game Details

Lakers vs. Nuggets prediction

  • Date & Time: Monday, May 22 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Arena – Los Angeles, California
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), FuboTV or another live stream

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