Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game 6 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

The Miami Heat (3-2) are hoping to close out the Boston Celtics on their home court in game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Saturday Night. The Celtics are coming off a 110-97 win in game 5.

These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Heat vs. Celtics game 6 prediction
Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon Sport

Miami vs Boston – Game Predictions 

Bookmakers feature the Celtics as 3-point favorites and at -157 on the moneyline against the Heat (+114). The total is set at 210 points.

Bettors have placed 69% of their bets on Miami to win straight up, and 51% of the handle is on Erik Spoelstra’s team to cover the spread. 93% of the money is on the score hit the under.

Prediction 1: Horford over 15.5 points, assists and rebounds 10/12 (-120)

After successfully taking Al Horford for over 13.5 points and rebounds in game 5, I’m rolling with him in game 6 but this time with assists thrown in.

Bet365 is offering the prop at -120, which is much better than other books putting him near -130. 

When the Celtics have their backs against the wall in a must-win situation, Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla has trusted his savvy veteran and given him significant minutes. In this series, aside from the game 3 blowout loss (128-102) where he played 19 minutes, Horford is averaging 29 minutes per game.

The former Florida Gator has put it all on the line and come up with key performances when facing elimination this postseason.

Horford’s stats in elimination games

GamePoints ReboundsAssistsTotal
Game 5 @ Miami611522
Game 4 @ Miami127423
Game 7 vs. Philadelphia610319
Game 6 @ Philadelphia211114

In the four win-or-go-home matchups, Horford has averaged 19.5 points, assists and rebounds, which is four above what he’s listed at. For the Eastern Conference Finals, he’s averaging 15.6.

During the span of his past 15 games, Horford has recorded more than 15.5 of the combined three stats on eight occasions (53.3% of the time). With the stakes being sky-high Saturday, he has a much higher chance of beating the prop.’s model has his total predicted at 19.7, which is 4.2 more than the 15.5 offered by bet365.

Prediction 2: Jayson Tatum over 2.5 three-pointers @ 10/17 (-170) 

Jayson Tatum’s shooting from beyond the arc has been consistently above 35% during the postseason aside from this series against the Heat (28.6%). 

Through 17 playoff outings, Tatum has attempted 8.94 three-pointers per game and is hitting at a 34.2% clip.

The former Duke product has failed to make more than one shot from distance in two of his last three games, and that’s precisely why sportsbooks have cut the odds to 10/17 (-170) rather than 1/2. The 10/17 does provide value at Bet365 since other bookmakers such as William Hill have the same prop (over 2.5) set at 20/37 (-185).

During the 2022-2023 playoffs, Tatum has made three or more shots from beyond the arc 64.7% of the time (11-of-17).

In the regular season, the 25-year-old averaged 3.2 successful conversions from three-point range per night and in the playoffs, he’s averaging 2.83, both higher than the total provided.

Tatum humbly called himself one of the best players in the world after knocking off the 76ers. Since he and the Celtics will face being knocked out of the tournament in hostile territory, he’ll likely attempt a healthy number of threes on Saturday.

Heat vs Celtics: Can Miami end the series?

Jimmy Butler stated after the game 5 loss that the Heat will close out the series at home. Saturday will be their best opportunity since the potential game 7 will be played at TD Garden.

The Celtics are trying to accomplish the impossible and come back from being down 3-0. The series price narrowly favors Miami (-145) advancing over Boston (+114).


Miami’s odds to win the NBA Finals are 7/1. The organization last made it in 2020 but fell to Los Angeles in six games.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have been ruled out. Gabe Vincent (ankle, day-to-day) is questionable but expected to return after missing game 5.

Miami Heat Predicted Starting Lineup:

Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo

Butler has performed well in the 2022-2023 playoffs and leads the team in points per game (28.8), assists (5.5) and steals (2.1).


The Celtics are 14/5 (+280) to win the NBA Championship. The franchise qualified for the finals last year but fell 4-2 to Golden State. The team previously lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2008.

Boston Celtics Injury Report:

Danilo Gallinari is out of game 6 with a knee injury. Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) is questionable.

Boston Celtics Predicted Starting Lineup:

Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford

Tatum tops the stats chart for Boston in both points per game (27.7) and rebounds (10.4) during the playoffs. Smart is averaging the most assists (5.3).

Heat vs Celtics Head-to-Head Record In 2023

Miami leads the Heat in head-to-head matchups 5-4 this season.

Miami vs Boston Game Details

Heat vs. Celtics game 6 prediction

Date & Time: Saturday, May 27 at 8:30 p.m. ET

Venue: FTX Arena – Miami, Florida

Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), FuboTV or another live stream

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