Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Game 4 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

Not to be outdone by the Denver Nuggets in these NBA playoffs, the Miami Heat also can finish a sweep in the Conference Finals by beating the Boston Celtics one more time. Things were never more lopsided than in Game 3 when the Heat won 128-102. Now the Celtics must rebound with their rookie head coach with the season on the line and everyone doubting they can win.

These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

Grant Williams
Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon sport

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics – Game Predictions

For the first time all series, the Celtics are an underdog with a 1.5-point spread. They were a 4.5-point favorite in Game 3. The total is set to 216.5 points.

Prediction 1: Boston Celtics to Cover the Spread (+1.5)

NBA teams up 3-0 with Game 4 at home in the Conference Finals are 5-3 in Game 4. The sweep happens over 61% of time in a 3-0 series in the NBA, but we are in historic territory with two possible sweeps in this round. Boston was so bad in Game 3 that no one scored 15 points, and now head coach Joe Mazzulla may be coaching for his job by avoiding an ugly sweep to the No. 8 seed. The Celtics are 8-1 ATS as an underdog this season, so that is promising. Miami has only covered 42.6% of home games, the 3rd-worst record in the NBA this year. It is far from the most confident pick to take Boston, but perhaps Miami won’t shoot 54.3% from 3 again and Boston will finally make more shots like the team we are used to seeing.

Prediction 2: Jayson Tatum Over 2.5 3-Point Field Goals

We know Boston is desperately seeking a better 3-point shooting game in this series. They have not made more than 11 3s in any game in this series, which is completely against the grain for a team that ranked No. 2 in made 3s (16.) and No. 6 in 3P% (.377) in the regular season. With Jaylen Brown and Al Horford bricking everything in sight, Tatum is still the player to trust for volume and efficiency to hit his over in this matchup. He is usually over 3.5 made 3s, but recent struggles have lowered his line and improved his odds of hitting, which he should do in this game if Boston has any hope of seeing Game 5.

Heat vs Celtics Preview – Just Avoid the Sweep

This is just the second NBA postseason since 1971 when the Conference Finals started where both series started 3-0. The last was 2015, and after the Nuggets swept the Lakers, this would be the first time ever both series are a sweep if the Heat win this game.

Miami Heat News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

The Heat could have a lineup change to make after Kevin Love left Game 3 after 5 minutes with a leg muscle injury. Obviously, the team did not miss his absence in the blowout win, and the Heat have built up great depth this postseason after already thriving without Tyler Herro.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

  • Kevin Love (leg) is probable
  • Tyler Herro (fingers) is out
  • Victor Oladipo (knee) is out

Miami Heat Starting Lineup:

Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, and Bam Adebayo.

Boston Celtics News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

Boston is healthy but the depth that was so recently complimented is now facing scrutiny. This can happen when your stars, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, are struggling, and it has not been a good series for Al Horford or Malcolm Brogdon (scoreless in Game 3) either. The Celtics benched Robert Williams for Derrick White in Game 3 to get more 3-point shooting, and that could be the plan again even if the results were disastrous all around for Boston in Game 3.

Boston Celtics Injury Report:

  • No injuries to report ahead of Game 4

Boston Celtics Starting Lineup:

Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, and Al Horford.

Heat vs Celtics Head to Head Record In 2023

The Heat are now 5-2 against Boston this season with a 5-game winning streak. Game 3 was by far the biggest blowout of the series at 26 points.

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Game Details

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction

  • Date & Time: Tuesday, May 23, 2023, 08:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
  • Where to watch match in UK: Sky Sports (TV), fuboTV, or other live stream

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