Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Game 4 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

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The Miami Heat can make the biggest statement in the first round of the NBA playoffs by taking a 3-1 lead over the Milwaukee Bucks. Of course, you can expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to try his best to play Monday night to avoid this deficit for the top-seeded Bucks.

Prediction 1

Miami Heat +5.5

10/11 (-110)

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Prediction 2

Over 218 Points

10/11 (-110)

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These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks – Game Predictions

Contents

1 Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks – Game Predictions
- 1.1 Prediction 1: Miami Heat to Cover the Spread (+5.5)
- 1.2 Prediction 2: Over 218 Points
2 Heat vs Bucks Preview – All Eyes on Giannis
3 Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Game Details

This has been a wild series with every game decided by at least 13 points with a total of at least 220 points. With consideration of Giannis playing, the Bucks are a 5.5-point road favorite with a total of 218 points.

Prediction 1: Miami Heat to Cover the Spread (+5.5)

This is a tough pick as the injury status for Antetokounmpo went from doubtful to playing to out in Game 2. The Bucks won big behind a record-tying 3-point shooting night, but things went sour in Game 3, a 22-point loss where the Bucks were held to 99 points. Miami was not a great team in the regular season, but this is a big spread for the Bucks to cover on the road in a game where Giannis is not 100% guaranteed to play. The earliest you can get Miami at the biggest spread possible, the better the value should be as this team is scoring at will in this series and has a real chance to go up 3-1.

Prediction 2: Over 218 Points

So far, this series has hit 247, 260, and 220 points. Despite ranking dead last in scoring in the regular season, Miami has scored at least 121 points in every game of this series. The use of Duncan Robinson has really helped with the loss of Tyler Herro to injury. The Bucks still have a lot of firepower, and they should get better games from their role players (Brook Lopez, Bobby Portis) after what happened in Game 3. The offensive efficiency is going to drop eventually for Miami in this series, but 16 of the Heat’s last 21 games coming into the playoffs also went over 218 points. Let’s keep the overs rolling in South Beach.

Heat vs Bucks Preview – All Eyes on Giannis

All the pregame attention will be on whether Giannis plays in Game 4, but the Heat deserve credit for an outstanding .649 eFG% in this series. The Heat are shooting 55.6% from the field and 50% from three in this series.

Miami Heat News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

The Heat continue to be a big underdog in this series, but they are one more upset away from going up 3-1. Someone has not told Jimmy Butler about this underdog story, but his glute injury is worth monitoring for his performance on Monday night. The Heat will need the bench to shine again after getting 47 points from Duncan Robinson, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin in Game 3.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

Tyler Herro (fingers) is out
Bam Adebayo (hamstring) is probable
Jimmy Butler (glute) is questionable
Victor Oladipo (knee) is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon

Miami Heat Starting Lineup:

Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Max Strus, Kevin Love, and Gabe Vincent.

Milwaukee Bucks News, Injuries, and Starting Lineups

Most are expecting Antetokounmpo to return to action Monday night, but most of his betting markets are not available at time of writing. You never know when an NBA injury can go south, but the 5.5-point spread for Milwaukee as a road favorite suggests he will play. But he will have to show he can still do all the athletic things we are used to seeing from him with this back injury. This could already be the make-or-break moment to the whole playoff run for the Bucks, who entered as the favorites to win it all coming into the first round.

Milwaukee Bucks Injury Report:

Giannis Antetokounmpo (back) is questionable
Wesley Matthews (calf) is out

Milwaukee Bucks Starting Lineup:

Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Heat vs Bucks Head to Head Record In 2023

The Heat are 4-3 against the Bucks this season, but incredibly, Antetokounmpo has been on the court for just over 52 minutes in those seven games, missing four of them entirely and leaving two more early with injury.