Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 7 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

The Boston Celtics will host the Miami Heat for a mouthwatering game 7 on Monday night with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line. The Celtics are coming off a thrilling 104-103 victory after Derrick White made a buzzer-beating putback to steal a win in Miami and keep his organization alive.

The improbable shot came after Jimmy Butler had made three consecutive free throws to put the Heat ahead 103-102 with just three seconds left.

These odds from William Hill and bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Celtics vs. Heat game 7 prediction
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon Sport

Boston vs Miami – Game Predictions 

Oddsmakers list the Celtics as seven-point spread favorites and at -324 on the moneyline against the Heat (+219). The total is set at 203 points.

Bettors have placed 83% of their wagers on Miami to cover the spread, and 86% of the money is on Erik Spoelstra’s squad to win straight up. 91% of the handle is on the score to hit the under.

Prediction 1: Max Strus under 2.5 three-pointers @ 10/17 (-170) 

Max Strus is only averaging 24.5 minutes in the last two games against the Celtics and 28.5 for the series. The 10/17 (-170) odds being offered by William Hill are significantly better than his 10/19 (-190) odds on other books such as bet365.

Strus has only attempted more than five three-point attempts once in this series. In the six games, the DePaul product has only surpassed the prop (over 2.5) one time, just narrowly beating it by going three-of-five (60%) from downtown in game 1.

Game3 PT FGs3 PT FG %
Game 62-540%
Game 51-425%
Game 41-520%
Game 32-825%
Game 22-540%
Game 13-560%

During the team’s opening round against Milwaukee, the 27-year-old only averaged 1.4 threes per game out of 3.4 attempts.

Strus has failed to score more than two three-pointers in 12 of the 17 postseason outings, which means he’s hit under 2.5 threes 70.6% of the time.

Spoelstra has played the shooting guard for 27 minutes or less in four of the six contests against Boston. If that trend continues in game 7, it’ll be difficult for him to make three or more from range.

Prediction 2: Derrick White under 2.5 blocks and steals 10/19 (-190)

The man of the hour has played well defensively this series but has recorded under 2.5 blocks and steals in 76.5% of postseason games. 

Against the Heat, White is averaging more than 2.5 blocks and steals per game, but in the past two series and in every month this campaign, he’s averaged less. During the regular season, White averaged 1.6 blocks and steals per contest which is 0.9 less than what his prop is set at.

White average blocks/steals

  • Round 3: 1.5/1.2
  • Round 2: 0.4/0.3
  • Round 1: 1.3/0.3
  • April: 0.8/0.8
  • March: 1.1/0.4
  • February: 0.7/0.5
  • January: 1/2/0.6
  • December: 1.1/0.7
  • November: 0.8/0.9
  • October: 0.5/0.7

The 28-year-old guard has been on a tear offensively leading to increased minutes in the last two games (42 and 37). In games 1-4, he only averaged 24.3. Should White cool down, head coach Joe Mazzulla likely won’t play him nearly as much, limiting his opportunities.

The -190 odds are more valuable than other sites listing him at -200 to reach the under.

Celtics vs Heat: Can Boston make history?

The Celtics have already sealed their spot in the history books by becoming the fourth team in NBA history to tie up a series after trailing 3-0. No franchise has ever completed the mission in game 7.


Boston is currently 12/10 (+120) to win the NBA Championship. The organization made it last year but fell to the Warriors in six games. The last time the Celtics won was in 2008 against the Lakers when they had the “big three” consisting of Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Ray Allen.

Boston Celtics Injury Report:

Danilo Gallinari is out of game 5 with a knee injury. Malcolm Brogdon (forearm) is questionable.

Boston Celtics Predicted Starting Lineup:

Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford

Tatum has done it all for the Celtics this postseason and leads the team in points per game (27.8), assists (5.3) and rebounds (10.5).


After failing to close out the series in games 4-6, Miami’s line has risen to 13/1 to win the NBA Finals. The organization last lifted the Larry O’Brien Trophy in 2013, and their previous appearance was in 2020 when they lost to the Lakers in six.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have been ruled out. Gabe Vincent (left ankle sprain) is listed as questionable.

Miami Heat Predicted Starting Lineup:

Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo

Butler leads the team in points per game (28.5) and assists (5.7). Adebayo is first in boards (9.1).

Celtics vs Heat Head-to-Head Record In 2023

The two franchises are tied in head-to-head matchups (5-5) this season.

Boston vs Miami Game Details

Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 prediction

  • Date & Time: Monday, May 29 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), FuboTV or another live stream

Subscribe to Punditfeed on Google News for all the latest updates from the world of sports!