Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Game 5 Prediction and Odds: 2023 NBA Playoffs

The Boston Celtics (trailing 3-1) will host the Miami Heat at TD Garden on Thursday in hopes of continuing to cut into their series lead. The Celtics won their first game of the series 116-99 on Tuesday.

These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 prediction
Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA – Photo by Icon Sport

Boston vs Miami – Game Predictions 

Bookmakers favor the Celtics on the spread by 8.5 points and at -354 on the moneyline against the Heat (236). The total is set at 215.5 points.

Wagerers have placed 85% of their bets on Miami to cover the spread, and 53% of the money is on the Celtics to win outright. 89% of the handle is on the score to go under.

Prediction 1: Jaylen Brown over 22.5 points 10/13 (-130)

Jaylen Brown has had an awful series against the Heat in terms of scoring and is only averaging 16.8 points per game. This has caused sportsbooks to lower his over/under total for points.

William Hill Sportsbook is currently listing Brown at 22.5, which is a full point lower than other books such as Bet365 (23.5). It doesn’t seem like much, but a full point can make quite a difference.

During the regular season, the Cal product averaged 26.6 points per contest (4.1 higher than his prop total). In the first two series against the Hawks and Celtics, he averaged a combined 24.6 points per outing.

In the 2022-2023 postseason, Brown has scored at least 23 or more points in 10 of the 17 matches (59%). This campaign, he’s averaged over 22.5 points in every month and playoff series except against the Heat.

Brown average points

  • Round 2: 22.9
  • Round 1: 26.6
  • April: 25
  • March: 27
  • February: 22.6
  • January: 26.8
  • December: 28.4
  • November: 26.4
  • October: 25.3

The Marietta, Georgia native has also averaged more than 22.5 points per game in each of the last three regular seasons (24.7, 23.6 and 26.6).

Against the Heat in the regular season, Brown did a lot better and averaged 30.3 points per contest. The 26-year-old is taking 18.1 field goal attempts per game and should be aggressive in the do-or-die scenario in game 6. He’s due for positive regression and his first game over 22.5 this series.

Prediction 2: Al Horford over 13.5 points/rebounds @ 25/26 (-104) 

With the Celtics in another must-win situation, their seasoned veteran Al Horford will need to put up another inspiring performance to keep his team alive.

In both games this season where the Celtics were in a win-or-go-home situation, the former Florida Gator easily surpassed 13.5 points and rebounds (against the 76ers in game 7 and on Tuesday).

Horford stats when facing elimination

GamePoints ReboundsTotal
Game 4 @ Miami12719
Game 7 vs. Philadelphia61016

The 36-year-old also surpassed the 13.5 point/rebound mark in the closeout game 6 win over the Hawks with 10 points and 12 boards. 

In the first series against Atlanta, Horford averaged exactly a combined 13.5 points and rebounds. Next round versus Philadelphia, he averaged 14.9 points/rebounds.

During the regular season, the former No. 3 overall pick averaged more than the prop in every single month aside from October (the first month of the campaign).

In the playoffs, he’s surpassed the prop 7-of-17 times, but with his great play when it matters most, the nearly even money odds certainly provide value.

Celtics vs Heat: Can Boston stay alive?

The Celtics are trying to become the first team in history to overcome a 3-0 deficit. No team has ever accomplished the feat.

The series price has been taken down a notch with the Heat favored at -275 to make the finals and Boston sitting at +225 to achieve the miracle.


Boston is 23/5 (+460) to win the NBA Finals. The organization reached the championship last year but fell 4-2 to the Warriors. The last time they won was in 2008.

Boston Celtics Injury Report:

Danilo Gallinari has been ruled out of game 5 with a knee injury. Malcolm Brogdon (elbow) is day-to-day.

Boston Celtics Predicted Starting Lineup:

Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Al Horford

Tatum has led the Celtics in both points per game (28.1) and rebounds (10.5) during the playoffs. Smart is averaging the most assists (5.5).


Miami’s odds to win the NBA Finals are 39/10 (+390). They came close to the title in 2020 but lost in six games to Los Angeles in the championship.

Miami Heat Injury Report:

Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have been ruled out. Gabe Vincent (ankle, day-to-day) is listed as questionable but is expected to start.

Miami Heat Predicted Starting Lineup:

Gabe Vincent, Max Strus, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Bam Adebayo

Butler has elevated his play in the postseason and leads the team in points per game (29.9), assists (5.6) and steals (2.1).

Celtics vs Heat Head-to-Head Record In 2023

Miami leads the Celtics in head-to-head matchups 5-3 this season. 

Boston vs Miami Game Details

Celtics vs. Heat Game 5 prediction

  • Date & Time: Thursday, May 25 at 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: TD Garden – Boston, Massachusetts
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: Sky Sports (TV), FuboTV or another live stream

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