Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction and odds – 27/10/2023

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction and odds – 27/10/2023
Oct 9, 2023; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) dribbles the ball during the game against the Spurs at Paycom Center. Credit: Rob Ferguson-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

The Cleveland Cavaliers will play host to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Friday at 11:30 p.m. GMT (7:30 p.m. ET).

Cleveland (1-0) is coming off a 114-113 win over Brooklyn in its season opener, and Oklahoma City (1-0) beat Chicago 124-104 on Wednesday.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Oklahoma City Thunder game predictions

The Cavs are 3.5-point favorites, and the game total is set at 226.

Prediction 1: Chet Holmgren over 19.5 pts, reb and ast @ -120 (1.83)

The No. 2 overall pick in 2022 made his much-anticipated regular season debut on Wednesday against the Bulls after missing the entire 2022-2023 season.

The Gonzaga product played just 25 minutes, recording 11 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists. Oklahoma City will likely keep a close eye on his minutes but should increase them against the Cavaliers and as he becomes more and more comfortable in the NBA.

During the preseason, Holmgren played just 19.25 minutes per game (to prevent injury) and averaged 23 combined points, assists and rebounds per contest. The 7-foot-1 power forward and center cleared the 19.5 mark in three of the four preseason games aside from against the Pistons when he logged just 14 minutes.

Holmgren’s game log preseason/regular season

  • 10/9 vs. Spurs: 31 pts, ast and reb in 16 minutes
  • 10/12 vs. Pistons: 20 pts, ast and reb in 21 minutes
  • 10/17 vs. Bucks: 24 pts, ast and reb in 26 minutes
  • 10/19 vs. Pistons: 15 pts, ast and reb in 14 minutes
  • 10/25 @ Chicago: 18 pts, ast and reb in 25 minutes

Holmgren only attempted seven shots against Chicago, the fewest in his short NBA career (9.5 is his average), and should attempt more against the Cavs.

Cleveland’s starting center and rim protector, Jarrett Allen, is out for the contest, so Holmgren should have more space to navigate in the paint. He’ll line up against power forward/center Evan Mobley and backup center Damian Jones, who aren’t as skilled defensively as Chicago’s Nikola Vucevic.

Numberfire’s analytical model is projecting Holmgren to play about 31.2 minutes and record 12.4 points, 7.1 rebounds and 2.4 assists (21.9 pts, reb and ast). BettingPros’ model also predicts the 21-year-old to have over 19.5 at 21.2. The Action Network has him at 21.93, 2.43 more than the 19.5 required to cash the bet.

Bet365 features Holmgren at -120 to hit the over, while other books, such as Caesars, have him at -129. PointsBet lists his total at 20.5.

Prediction 2: Evan Mobley to score 15+ points @ -120 (1.83)

This line on FanDuel for Mobley to score 15 or more points really stands out for multiple reasons. Bet365 has the same line at -150 (60% implied odds), and DraftKings has it at -145.

The other key reason is that practically every sportsbook is listing Mobley’s points total at 15.5 at -115 to hit the over. The full point goes a long way, with Vegas always being on the spot. It might not seem one point makes a difference, but go on Twitter and type in “bad beat.” You’ll see horror stories.

During the regular season in 2022-2023, Mobley averaged 16.2 points per game, 1.2 more than the total needed and 1.7 more than the over 14.5. The USC product only scored 10 points against the Nets on Wednesday and is in a good bounce-back spot against a team he’s succeeded against in the past.

Last year, Mobley averaged 21.5 points in two meetings against the Thunder.

Mobley stats facing OKC in 2022-2023

  • 1/27/23 @ OKC: 23 points
  • 12/10/22 vs. OKC 21 points

With Jarrett Williams out, the 6-foot-11 Mobley (who can play as a power forward or a center) will likely continue to see an increase in minutes and have plenty of scoring opportunities against Chet Holmgren (making his second regular-season start ever), Josh Giddey and the undersized (6-foot-5) Jalen Williams on occasion. Mobley started at center in the opener against the Bulls.

The Action Network’s model is projecting Mobley to score about 17.2 points, while Numberfire is predicting he’ll play about 35.2 minutes and score 16.7 points. BettingPros’ model has Mobley scoring around 16.8.

These American and decimal odds were correct at the time of writing.

Cavaliers vs Thunder preview: Who can start a streak?

A win for either team would lead to a 2-0 record and potentially start a winning streak.

Cleveland news, injuries, and predicted starting lineup

The Cavs are 0-1 against the spread this season.

Cavs injury report

  • C Jarrett Allen (ankle) is out.
  • PG Darius Garland (hamstring) is questionable.
  • PF Dean Wade (illness) is questionable.

Cleveland predicted starting lineup:

Garland, Mitchell, Strus, Okoro and Mobley

Oklahoma City news, injuries, and predicted starting lineup

The Thunder are 1-0 against the spread in 2023-2024.

Thunder injury report

  • SF Kenrich Williams (back) is out.

OKC predicted starting lineup:

Gilgeous-Alexander, Giddey, Dort, Williams and Holmgren

Cavaliers vs Thunder head-to-head record

The two organizations split the season series 1-1 in 2022-2023. Cleveland has won four of the last five matchups.

Key game details

  • Date & Time: Friday, Oct. 27th, 2023 at 11:30 p.m. GMT (7:30 p.m. ET)
  • Venue: Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, Cleveland, OH
  • Where to watch the match in the UK: NBA TV, Sky Sports, BBC

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