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The 2023 Tour de France is heading fast towards its final day but right before that, we have one final battle in the mountains. For the first time since 2019, the penultimate day of the Tour is not an individual time trial. Instead, the organisers have opted to throw at us 6 categorised climbs in the short stage 20. Who still has the legs to attack? Who’s still chasing something and has high ambitions? Read on to find out our Tour de France Stage 20 odds and predictions.
Simon Yates Outright winner
Felix Gall Each-way
Michael Woods Dark Horse
*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.
Tour de France Stage 20 Profile
Stage 20 on Saturday, July 22nd, is one of the more interesting and unpredictable stages of this year’s Tour. At just 133km this very short final day in the mountains promises to be unpredictable and exciting. All of the big climbs and monster mountains are behind us now but the 2023 Tour de France organisers have found a way to stuff in 6 categorised climbs, the last 2 Category 1, in this short stage. Stage 20 will be the day when the final of the 4 jerseys will be decided. Who will be our 2023 King of the Mountains? Here is what lies ahead of the riders today.
Stage 20 starts with a gradual 12km of climbing towards the Ballon d’Alsace. Some attacks can be expected as early as this first climb of the day. Then after a long descent and the intermediate sprint comes an interesting 3-stage climb that is certain to test the riders at the end of a 3-week Grand Tour. This is where we expect many moves and attacks to take place.
It all starts at the fifty-kilometre mark with the Col de la Croix des Moinats, a 5.2-kilometre climb with an average gradient of 7.1 percent. This is followed by a short descent, leading to the Col de Grosse Pierre, a 3.2-kilometre climb with an 8 percent gradient. To finish it off via a ride through a plateau is the final of this triple-challenge – the Col de la Schlucht, 4.3 kilometres at a 5.4 percent average gradient.
At that stage we expect the race to be pretty broken with those still feeling some energy in their legs after 3 weeks of racing attacking in the hunt for one final stage win. However, the 2 most challenging climbs, both Category 1, were left for last and the winner of the stage is not likely to be decided until we hit the final one of those. The ascent of the Platzerwasel is steep (8.4 percent) but short (7.1 kilometres). The final kilometre of the race is a steady uphill towards the finish line in Le Markstein. Who will be able to win this short but thrilling stage?
Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 20
With the Tour de France Stage 20 odds once again focusing on the top 2 overall riders Vingegaard and Pogacar we decide to take a slightly different route with our own Stage 20 odds and predictions.
Our Outright Prediction: Simon Yates @ 16/1 (17.00)
The experienced leader of team Jayco Alula Simon Yates is fighting with his twin brother Adam Yates for the right to be the best-placed Brit in this year’s tour and more importantly for the right to be on the podium. Twice already during the 2023 Tour Simon narrowly missed on the stage win. He was picked to the line during the final day at the Alps in stage 17. Simon showed very good legs during those demanding climbs though. He is less than 2 minutes behind his twin brother Adam and the price for him closing that gap will be a place on the podium. With Simon’s legs clearly still having some energy left in them we back him to finally get the stage win he deserves.
Also, we have to consider here the small matter that team Jayco Alula are yet to get a stage win in this year’s Tour and they will throw all they have left of their team to try and help Simon finally give them some joy.
Our Each-way Prediction: Felix Gall @ 1/2 (1.50)
With our each-way pick, it pays out for a top 3 finish, we select the winner of the last day in the Alps during stage 17 Felix Gall. The young Austrian still has a realistic chance of winning the Poka dot jersey for King of the Mountains. Gall starts the final day in the mountains only 6 points behind Ciccone and this should motivate the young Austrian. Based on what we saw from him during the last challenging stage in the Alps just a few days ago Gall still has plenty of energy left in his legs. As he will be chasing every position for the points it gives in the King of the Mountains race we can see Gall being in the front all day and possibly attacking hard on the final climb in search of his 2nd stage win of this year’s Tour.
Our Dark Horse Prediction: Michael Woods @ 50/1 (51.00)
For our dark horse winner pick we select the Canadian Michael Woods. Woods knows how to attack short climbs, he proved that with his win in stage 9 of this year’s Tour. The 36-year-old also has won 2 mountainous stages at the Vuelta de Espana, so he is no stranger to triumphing in such a profile. With the profile suiting Woods and him chasing his first-ever top 10 GC finish of Tour de France at age 36 we think the Canadian has all the motivation needed to be near the front most of the day. If he feels as fresh as he was during stage 9, who knows?
Tour de France Stage 20 Odds
Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 20:
Jonas Vingegaard 2/1 (3.00)
Tadej Pogacar 5/1 (6.00)
Felix Gall 9/1 (10.00)
Simon Yates 16/1 (17.00)
Pello Bilbao 20/1 (21.00)
Sepp Kuss 20/1 (21.00)
David Gaudu 22/1 (23.00)
Thibaut Pinot 25/1 (26.00)
Tom Pidcock 25/1 (26.00)
Adam Yates 33/1 (34.00)
Our first 2 picks from above are among the top 4 favourites for the stage win. Simon Yates will certainly be aggressive. Felix Gall is also destined to be on the attack as he tries to win the Poka dot jersey.
Our final pick Michael Woods also has a reason to race hard though. He’s near the end of his career at age 36 and he needs a strong placing in stage 20 as he’s still hunting for his best-ever Tour de France final classification.
Ultimately it will come down to who still has the legs to attack after 3 weeks of racing and at the end of a 6th categorised climb during this penultimate 2023 Tour de France stage.
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