Tour de France Stage 17 Odds and Predictions

The 2023 Tour de France just had its most decisive stage yet on Tuesday when Jonas Vingegaard ballooned his 10-second lead to a nearly 2-minute one over Pogacar. The battle for the yellow jersey might have been decided during the 22.4 km between stage 16 time trial. However, right after it comes the final day in the Alps and the stage with the longest climb, so could Pogacar resurrect his chances? What would happen to the battle for 3rd place? Here are our Tour de France Stage 17 odds and predictions.

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 17

After the dramatic events from stage 16 when the yellow jersey wearer and defending champion Vingegaard extended his lead over his main rival Pogacar dramatically, we think the coming last brutal stage in the Alps will provide at least the same levels of excitement. The tough stage ahead has several challenging climbs before the culmination is reached with the longest climb of the entire 2023 Tour, the 28.1 km and 6% gradient Hors Categorie Col de la Loze. The stage doesn’t finish at the top of the climb though with a tricky and steep descent after it ends the race. With Pogacar expected to be taking all kinds of risks as he tries to revive his challenge, the battle for 3rd place is expected to heat up even more as Adam Yates and Carols Rodriguez are currently split by just 5 seconds, and the King of the Mountains contenders Powless and Ciccone likely to be part of an early breakaway, we have countless plots and scenarios. We’ve done our best to give you our best Tour de France stage 17 predictions and corresponding odds.

Our Outright Prediction: Jonas Vingegaard @ 2/1 (3.00)

The 2022 Tour de France winner Jonas Vingegaard extended his lead over Pogacar to nearly 2 minutes and he looks unstoppable already on the way to back-to-back Tour de France triumphs. Vingegaard smells blood though and he knows that if he wins this last stage in the Alps he will have the top spot all but secured already after just 17 stages.

Tour de France Stage 17 Odds
Slovenian Tadej Pogacar of UAE Team Emirates and Danish Jonas Vingegaard of Jumbo-Visma pictured in action during stage 9 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 182,4 km race from Saint-Leonard-de-Noblat to Puy de Dome, France, Sunday 09 July 2023. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 23 July 2023. BELGA PHOTO POOL BERNARD PAPON – Photo by Icon sport

The longest climb of the entire Tour and its steep hairpin nature suit perfectly Vingegaard. He doesn’t need to be aggressive early on when all he has to do is fend off attacks from Pogacar. This should keep the Dane’s legs fresher and if he wants to end any doubt we think he might go on and beat Pogacar for a 2nd consecutive stage.

Our Each-way Prediction: Carlos Rodriguez @ 6/4 (2.50)

With our safer each-way betting tip, which pays off if the rider finishes in the top 3, we back Carlos Rodriguez. Right now the closest battle is for the 3rd place in the GC standings. Rodriguez Cano trails Adam Yates by only 5 seconds and the Ineos rider will feel he stands a chance of getting back on the podium with a good ride in this stage.

Rodriguez has a very unconventional, but effective, way of climbing and he showed his skills up steep slopes with his stage 14 win. We even fancy Rodriguez Cano as a potential stage winner again, but considering the 2 big guns Vingegaard and Pogacar will be going at each other our thinking is that it would be safer to pick him for a top 3 finish instead.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Egan Bernal @ 100/1 (101.00)

For our dark horse winner pick we select the 2-time Grand Tour winner Egan Bernal. The struggling leader of team Ineos has had an awful 2023 Tour de France. He’s well over an hour from the leader in the GC and the only thing left for Bernal is to ride for a stage win.

Despite showing pretty awful form so far Bernal is a specialist climber that won both the 2019 Tour de France and the 2021 Giro d’Italia. He knows how to attack big climbs, he’s experienced and used to winning, and he’s far back enough in the GC standings to be allowed to join a breakaway and build a strong lead over the main contenders before the final climb.

It will be a tall order based on what we’ve seen from Bernal so far. However, if he somehow rediscovers his form from 2019 and 2021 when he was beating practically everyone to the top of the steepest climbs then these odds look very enticing indeed.

TdF Stage 17 Odds
BELGA PHOTO DIRK WAEM – Photo by Icon sport

Tour de France Stage 17 Odds

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 17:

Jonas Vingegaard 2/1 (3.00)

Tadej Pogacar 5/2 (3.50)

Adam Yates 16/1 (17.00)

David Gaudu 20/1 (21.00)

Wout Poels 22/1 (23.00)

Simon Yates 25/1 (26.00)

Carlos Rodriguez 25/1 (26.00)

Giulio Ciccone 25/1 (26.00)

Felix Gall 25/1 (26.00)

Mikel Landa 25/1 (26.00)

The first 2 of our  picks from above are among the top 10 favourites for the stage and understandably so.

Vingegaard and Pogacar are logically the top 2 favourites to win the final day in the Alps. There are many other specialist climbers out there too though. One of those is our dark-horse pick Bernal and if he somehow finds himself in a breakaway watch out for him going for the stage win with all he has left in the tank.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.