Tour de France Stage 15 Odds and Predictions

The 2023 Tour de France is in the midst of the key period of week 2. Stage 15 is the last of a thrilling triple-header of days in the Alps and the battle for the yellow jersey is expected to reach a crescendo during those days in the Alps with the top 2 riders now split by just 10 seconds. Below, we give you 3 free betting tips and the main Tour de France Stage 14 odds you need to know.

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 14

After a thrilling stage 14 and nothing between the two big favourites  Pogacar over Vingegaard, many think that this Sunday during the final mountain-top finish of this year’s Tour will be thebest chance for Pogacar to put on the yellow jersey. Stage 15 is expected to be a hectic race with an early breakaway almost certain as the opening 240 kilometres are filled with small uncategorised climbs. This stage will be all about if the main GC contenders will battle hard for the win, or if a breakaway could be successful. The finale promises to be a thriller as stage 15 is the last of the 2023 Tour de France to finish at a top of a mountain. Who will be first to the line on top of Saint-Gervais Mont-Blanc?

Our Outright Prediction: Tadej Pogacar @ 3/1 (4.00)

The 2021 and 2022 Tour de France winner Tadej Pogacar knows how to win at the top of  a massive climb. So far, it has been all about who will be better between Pogacar and Vingegaard when it comes to the tough climbs and we can expect more of the same here. All that said, a successful breakaway might change these odds as the race progresses but if Pogacar enters the final climb within 3 minutes of the current stage leader we think he will win.

Pogacar trails the yellow jersey only by 10 seconds at the start of the stage. The 2-time Tour winner and last year’s runner-up also managed to gain time and outpace Vingegaard in the last 3 mountain stages. Pogacar certainly knows how to climb as he won the Poke dot jersey for King of the Mountains both in the 2020 and 2021 Tour editions.

With all that said and with the 2 big rivals for the top spot expected to lock horns in an epic battle once more we back the Slovenian to triumph again.

Stage 13 Odds
Photo by Icon sport

Our Each-way Prediction: Jonas Vingegaard @ 10/11 (1.91)

With our safer each-way betting tip, pays off if the rider finishes in the top 3, we back the current yellow jersey holder Jonas Vingegaard to be on the podium at the end of the stage. This Tour de France stage 15 prediction follows the logic of what we said above. When Vingegaard and Pogacar battle it against each other there hasn’t been any other rider able to keep up with them. This was the case both last year and during the first few stages in the mountains of the 2023 Tour.

Vingegaard was beaten to the top of the hill in the last 3 battles with Pogacar. The Dane dominated back in stage 5 though when he took the yellow jersey. Even if he fails to beat the Slovenian this time we sure believe that Vingegaard will be able to stay close. The climbs are getting steeper and steeper with each passing stage too and this is where Vingegaard is at his best, so watch out for him.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Egan Bernal @ 85/1 (86.00)

In normal circumstances, the 2019 Tour de France and 2021 Giro d’Italia winner and leader of team Ineos Egan Bernal wouldn’t have been a dark horse. However, Bernal has had a nightmare of a Tour so far and at the end of week 2 he finds himself over an hour behind in the GC standings. Clearly, Egan Bernal’s form is not what was expected as he was seen as the 3rd main favourite for the overall win at the start of the Tour.

Still, the Colombian is a heck of a climber. On a good day, the climbing specialist Bernal could beat anyone going up a steep gradient. The fact that he is so far behind in the GC standings means that he will be allowed to join a breakaway if he has the legs for it. The main contenders won’t be concerned with Bernal pulling away from them anymore. Bernal will clearly want to salvage some pride from this disastrous for him Tour and winning a stage or two is all he could hope for.

Considering that this is the last mountain-top finish of the Tour and the fact that Bernal remains one of the best climbers out there we think his odds are worth considering for the stage win, as long as he could find the legs to join an early breakaway and build a healthy lead before the final climb.

Tour de France Stage 14 Odds

Tour de France Stage 15 Odds
15-07-2023 Tour De France; Tappa 14 Annemasse – Morzine; 2023, Uae Emirates; 2023, Jumbo – Visma; Pogacar, Tadej; Vingegaard, Jonas; Joux Plane; – Photo by Icon sport

Now we’ve made our picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 15:

Tadej Pogacar 3/1 (4.00)

Giulio Ciccone 7/1 (8.00)

Jonas Vingegaard 8/1 (9.00)

Michael Woods 10/1 (11.00)

Tom Pidcock 14/1 (15.00)

David Gaudu 18/1 (19.00)

Matthias Skjelmose 20/1 (21.00)

Felix Gall 20/1 (21.00)

Thibaut Pinot 25/1 (26.00)

Adam Yates 28/1 (29.00)

Our main 2 picks from above are among the top 3 favourites for the stage and understandably so.

The 2-time Tour de France winner (2021 and 2022) Tadej Pogacar and the current yellow jersey holder and 2022 Tour winner Jonas Vingegaard are expected to continue their epic 3-day battle in the Alps during stage 14. From what we have seen so far none other rider could keep up with them when they start attacking each other. Naturally, this explains why their odds are so much shorter than everyone else’s.

The only chance for somebody else to win the stage is if a breakaway enters the final climb with a healthy lead.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.