Tour de France Stage 12 Odds and Predictions

The 2023 Tour de France is about to enter the key period of week 2. Stage 12 will lead us towards 3 colossal stages into the mountains over the weekend. The profile of stage 12 is set for attacks and breakaways from the start and the excitement is guaranteed. Below, we give you 3 free betting tips and the main Tour de France Stage 12 odds you need to know.

*These odds from bet365 were correct at the time of writing.

Our Betting Tips and Predictions for Tour de France Stage 12

After a thrilling stage 11 was designed for the sprinters and it produced the 4th stage win for the flying Belgian Jasper Philipsen. However, stage 12 has a much different profile with 5, none major, climbs scattered throughout the 170 kilometres. The 12th stage is expected to favour the so-called baroudeurs, riders who are already trailing in the general classification and can find freedom from the main contenders to form a successful breakaway. The profile of stage 12 is set for the one-day specialists to seek glory.

Our Outright Prediction: Wout Van Aert @ 5/1 (6.00)

Wout van Aert is one such one-day specialist that is hungry to win his first stage of the 2023 Tour. Van Aert is a teammate of the overall leader Jonas Vingegaard at Jumbo-Vistma. He has also won 9 Tour de France stages over the last 4 years, so Van Aert is more than capable of triumphing at the Tour.

With Vingegaard not likely to need much help and protection during stage 12 the ambitious Belgian Van Aert is likely to be allowed to join any early breakaway that forms. Once among the leaders, Van Aert is one of the most dangerous riders to have and the profile of Stage 12 suits his strengths very well.

Van Aert has won 12 one-day races in his career, including the E3 Saxo Bank Classic both in 2022 and 2023, so he has proven countless times that he’s capable to cause damage when given the freedom. We expect that Van Aaert will be allowed to ride ahead of his team leader and if that’s the case the Belgian will be hard to contain by anyone as he’s eager to finally win a stage in this year’s Tour and up his tally to 10 Tour de France stage wins.

Stage 12 Odds scaled
Belgian Wout Van Aert of Jumbo-Visma celebrates as he crosses the finish line at stage 6 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 144,9 km race from Tarbes to Cauterets-Cambasque, France, Thursday 06 July 2023. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 23 July 2023. BELGA PHOTO JASPER JACOBS – Photo by Icon sport

Our Each-way Prediction: Matthias Skjelmose @ 4/5 (1.80)

With our next Stage 12 pick we look at some each-way options, which means that a placed bet will be successful if the rider finishes inside the top 3 of the stage’s final results. Our choice for this free betting tip is the young and very promising Dane Matthias Skjelmose. The 22-year-old is making his Tour de France debut this year and he is full of ambition to also secure his first stage win before the race is over.

In 2023 so far Skjelmose won Tour de Suisse and the one-day National Road Race Championship. Together with his teammate at Lidl-Trek Giulio Ciccone, he’s very likely to be part of any breakaway that forms early in stage 12. The two teammates are then expected to work well together and from them we back Skjelmose to do better simply because his thirst for first-ever Tour win will drive him on.

Our Dark Horse Prediction: Mathieu Van Der Poel @ 20/1 (21.00)

The Dutch rider Mathie Van Der Poel is not mentioned in many of the predictions for a stage 12 win but we think he could be the dark horse of this day. The 28-year-old Dutch rider is a proven one-day race specialist with 13 wins in such types of races in his career. In 2023 alone Van der Poel won the One-Day Classics Milan-San Remo and Paris-Roubaix.

Van der Poel already won a stage at the Tour, back in 2021, so we think backing ‘The Flying Dutchman’ to cause an upset is a punt with considering.

Tour de France Stage 12 Odds

Stage 12 Odds
BELGA PHOTO DIRK WAEM – Photo by Icon sport

Now we’ve made our individual picks here are the odds for the top 10 favourites to win Stage 12:

Wout Van Aert 5/1 (6.00)

Matej Mohoric 12/1 (13.00)

Matthias Skjelmose 14/1 (15.00)

Krists Neilands 16/1 (17.00)

Tadej Pogacar 16/1 (17.00)

Tobias Halland Johannessen 16/1 (17.00)

Julian Alaphilippe 16/1 (17.00)

Mathieu Van Der Poel 20/1 (21.00)

Giulio Ciccone 20/1 (21.00)

Valentin Madouas 25/1 (26.00)

Our 3 picks from above are among those 10 names. Among the other favourites for the stage win Matej Mohoric from Bahrain Victorious is given the 2nd best odds for a reason. Mohoric is an aggressive rider and regularly joins breakaways. He is very dangerous in such nature of stages with many short climbs.

One of the main General Classification threats the 2-time Tour de France winner (2021 and 2022) Tadej Pogacar is also among the favourites for the stage win. We don’t think this very likely but the logic behind is that Pogacar has struggled to trouble the current leader Vingegaard in the mountains, so now the Slovenian might try to cut his deficit in a less demanding stage. Pogacar is a proven one-day-race specialist too.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.