Tour de France Stage 11 Odds: Can Somebody Beat Philipsen To The Line?

The 2023 Tour de France is entering its second week and as usual week 2 will be all about the mountains and the general classification. This is not the case regarding the coming Stage 11 though, with the profile having a sprint finish written all over it. So, who are the main favourites to win the stage?

Sprint finish
04-07-2023 Tour De France; Tappa 04 Dax – Nogaro; 2023, Alpecin – Deceuninck; Philipsen, Jasper; Nogaro – Circuit Paul Armagnac; – Photo by Icon sport

Who the Stage 11 Profile is suiting best?

Undoubtedly the Stage 11 finish at Moulins has a sprint finish written all over it. Considering the way the race is set up this year the coming Stage 11 will likely be the only chance for the sprinters to compete for a win during week 2 of the Tour it’s very likely that the teams of those sprinters will make sure that no break on day 11 could succeed.

With the legendary Mark Cavendish crashing out during stage 8 there is only one sprinter to beat, but nobody has been able to do that yet during this year’s tour. The Belgian powerhouse Jasper Philipsen already won 3 stages and he has looked unstoppable in a sprint finish so far.

Stage 11 Winner Main Favourites
Jasper Philipsen1/1 (2.00)
Dylan Groenewegen6/1 (7.00)
Caleb Ewan9/1 (10.00)
Wout van Aert10/1 (11.00)

Among the longshot outsiders for a stage win are the Danish sprinters Fabio Jakobsen and Mads Pedersen, both given 12/1 (13.00) odds for the stage victory. However, we don’t think they have the speed to challenge the top sprinters on this particular terrain and for them to win some incident needs to happen inside the final few kilometres.

Can somebody stop Jasper Philipsen from winning his 4th stage of this year’s Tour?

Stage 11 Odds
Belgian Jasper Philipsen of Alpecin-Deceuninck celebrates on the podium in the green jersey of leader in the sprint ranking after stage 10 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 167,2 km race from Vulcania to Issoire, France, Tuesday 11 July 2023. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 23 July 2023. BELGA PHOTO JASPER JACOBS – Photo by Icon sport

There is a reason why Alpecin’s specialist sprinter Jasper Philipsen is the heavy favourite for the win in the stage 11 odds. Philipsen won all 3 sprint finishes so far in this year’s Tour. With his main rival Cavendish crashing out his dominance in the sprints should be even more profound. Philipsen has a great team supporting him too, with the Alpecin train built specifically to lead their star sprinter to the best possible spot in sprint finishes.

Still, Dylan Groenwegen might have a chance. Dylan very nearly picked Philipsen to the line back in stage 4, so with a bit of help from his team, he could cause an upset. The Jayco Alula team are yet to win a stage during this year’s Tour and they will ride hard for their specialist sprinter in the coming stage 11, so he could have the best odds possible for the win.

Caleb Ewan and Wout van Aert are the other 2 names among the 4 main favourites. However, if all is normal we don’t think they have the explosiveness and burst of speed needed to beat Philipsen to the line.

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.