Tour de France Betting Tips and Predictions – Best Outright Picks

These odds from William Hill were correct at the time of writing.

With the 2023 Tour de France about to enter its crucial and final third week here are some outright Tour de France tips and predictions that might help you add extra excitement to the action in the coming days. First, we take a look at 3 of the most standard outright individual predictions. At the bottom, we give you 3 bonus Tour de France betting tips to consider.

Here are our 3 top outright Tour de France Betting Tips

Tour de France Winner: Jonas Vingegaard

Our first Tour de France prediction backs the defending champion and current yellow jersey wearer, at the time of writing, Jonas Vingegaard to make it back-to-back Tour de France wins. The young Dane is locked in an epic battle with the 2020 and 2021 winner Tadej Pogacar for the win. It will be one of the two that will triumph in Paris and we fancy Vingegaard’s chances better.

Vingegaard survived numerous attacks from Pogacar in week 2 of the race and despite being tested time after time the Dane withstood and still wears the yellow. The remaining few mountain stages are filled with much steeper climbs and those historically have favoured Vingegaard. Also, the Dane is the slightly better time trialist of the two. These two facts make us believe that Vingegaard would win his second Tour.

Odds: 1/1 (2.00)

King of the Mountains: Tadej Pogacar

Our second Tour de France prediction looks at the race for the poke dot jersey. The King of the Mountains champions from 2020 and 2021 Tadej Pogacar sits right behind the current leader Jonas Vingegaard in this standings. Yet again, the two giants are expected to be fighting for this jersey too but on this occasion, we think Pogacar has better chance to win it.

The Slovenian trails Vingegaard in the GC standings so he needs to be the more aggressive rider. Pogacar beat Vingegaard to the line in 3 of the last 4 mountainous stages even without gaining any time. Still, finishing ahead of the Dane means more points for the King of the Mountains race and that’s why we think by the end of the Tour Pogacar will be wearing this jersey.

Odds: 5/2 (3.50)

Tour de France Picks
Danish Jonas Vingegaard of Jumbo-Visma and Slovenian Tadej Pogacar of UAE Team Emirates pictured in action during stage 9 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 182,4 km race from Saint-Leonard-de-Noblat to Puy de Dome, France, Sunday 09 July 2023. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 23 July 2023. BELGA PHOTO POOL BERNARD PAPON – Photo by Icon sport

Top 10 Finish: Tom Pidcock

Our final Tour de France prediction backs the young British rider from team Ineos Tom Pidcock to achieve a top 10 GC finish. Pidcock dropped out of the top 10 during stage 14 as he struggled high in the Alps. Tom is not the best of climbers but on hilly terrain, he could be ultra-aggressive. Our detailed analyses suggest that Pidcock’s best chance to get a stage win comes during week 3. With that in mind and considering that Pidcock is only a few minutes and places outside the top 10 we think that by the end of the race, Tom will be back among the most elite riders.

Odds: 11/4 (3.75)

Bonus Tour de France Betting Tips

Team to Win 1+ Stage: Jayco Alula

Our first bonus Tour de France prediction backs Team Jayco Alula to find at least 1 stage win before the 2023 Tour is over. The team’s lead Simon Yates is arguably the most prominent British rider in the Tour this year and yet he, or any of his  teammates, are yet to win get a stage win. We believe this will change soon and we back Jayco Alula to be celebrating soon.

Odds: 5/2 (3.50)

Tour de France Picks
Belgian Wout Van Aert of Jumbo-Visma pictured in action during stage 6 of the Tour de France cycling race, a 144,9 km race from Tarbes to Cauterets-Cambasque, France, Thursday 06 July 2023. This year’s Tour de France takes place from 01 to 23 July 2023. BELGA PHOTO DIRK WAEM – Photo by Icon sport

Team to Win 3+ Stages: Ineos Grenadiers

Our second Tour de France tip backs the only British team in the competition Ineos Grenadiers to record at least 1 more stage win. Ineos achieved back-to-back stage wins in rounds 12 and 13, so they need only 1 more in the remaining days to get to 3 stage wins.

Ever since the team’s leader Egan Bernal fell over 30 minutes behind the leaders during several awful days in week 1 it was obvious that Ineos will be riding only for stage wins from that point on. They grabbed 2 already and we fancy their chances to find another one. Bernal might be out of GC contention but the ex-Tour de France winner would want to find some joy from this year’s experience and he could be attacking aggressively in search of a stage win very soon.

Odds: 5/4 (2.25)

Top 3 Finish: Simon Yates

Our final Tour de France prediction is probably the most ambitious one. Simon Yates, the leader of team Jayco Alula, sits 7th in the GC rankings and just shy of 4 minutes behind the 3rd place after stage 14 was completed. Yet, we still think he could make a push towards the podium in the coming days.

Simon has been riding well and only late on in the climbs he struggled to keep up with the GC contenders. However, the few riders ahead of him in the rankings are mainly supporting cast to the main actors Pogacar-Vingegaard and we expect these workhorses to start getting more and more tired during week 3. This is when Simon could make his move if he still has enough in his legs.

After all, Simon won the Vuelta de Espana in 2018 and finished 3rd in the Giro d’Italia in 2021, so he certainly knows how to get to the podium of a big cycling event.

Odds: 5/2 (3.50)

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About the author


Iskra had a promising, at least she believed so, tennis and volleyball careers as a junior but a series of injuries ended her hopes to become a professional athlete very early.

Instead, she focused all her energy on her other passion, writing. For over a decade, Iskra had been a freelance sports writer. Football, basketball and tennis are the main fields of her expertise.