The Open Championship 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tip and Prediction

The Open Championship 2023 – Day 3 Betting Tip and Prediction
England's Matthew Jordan after finishing his round during day one of The Open at the Royal Liverpool, Wirral. Picture date: Thursday July 20, 2023. - Photo by Icon Sport

Brian Harman made a charge on Friday at the Open Championship to take the solo lead at 10-under after recording a 6-under 65. His 132 strokes through the first two days tied the 36-hole record at an Open at Royal Liverpool Golf Club.

The other two golfers to accomplish the feat were Tiger Woods (2006) and Rory McIlroy (2014) with both going on to hoist the Claret Jug.

Englishman Tommy Fleetwood trails by five strokes in second place, followed by recent winner of the John Deere Classic, Austrian Sepp Straka (4-under).

Some of the biggest names in the golf world failed to make the cut, including two-time major champions Collin Morikawa and Dustin Johnson. Past open winner Shane Lowry, Tony Finau, Justin Rose, Phil Mickelson and Justin Thomas also failed to reach the weekend.

In this article, Punditfeed will provide a third-round betting prediction for a player who is practically playing in his own backyard.

The Open Championship Day 3 Tip: Head-to-head Matchup

The pick below is strictly for the 18 holes played on Saturday.

Matthew Jordan over Stewart Cink @ 10/13 (-130)

I’ll take the hometown hero, a member at his local course, Royal Liverpool, over 50-year-old Stewart Cink.

Now playing on both the PGA Tour and Senior Tour, Cink still has game but has struggled mightily this year on the PGA. The former major champion has missed eight cuts in his last 11 tournaments with only one finish higher than 60th.

Jordan played well leading up to the Open, making six-straight cuts and earning four finishes of T22 or better on the European Tour. The 27-year-old was on pace for a high finish at the Genesis Scottish Open last week after recording scores of 69 during the first three rounds before an 80 on Sunday caused him to tumble down the leaderboard.

Royal Liverpool played extremely tough yesterday, especially with the high winds. With Jordan having played it countless times and knowing the ins and outs, he definitely holds an edge over Cink.

Jordan currently sits in a tie for 11th at 1-under par after rounds of 69 and 72 the first two days. Cink is also T11 after posting a 68 on Thursday and 73 on Friday.

According to data compiled by analyst Ron Klos, Jordan is slightly better than Cink in terms of average strokes gained on links-style courses since 2015 and has played more rounds.

Strokes gained average on links courses

  • Matthew Jordan 0.89 in 53 rounds
  • Stewart Cink 0.79 in 42 rounds

This season, Jordan is averaging 3.15 strokes better than Cink during the third round of tournaments. The data below features 10 DP World Tour events and one PGA Tour event for Jordan compared to nine PGA Tour events for Cink.

Third-round scoring averages

  • Matthew Jordan: 69.18 (11 rounds)
  • Stewart Cink: 72.33 (nine rounds)

The Englishman has been in much better form overall this year than Cink. Obviously, the competition is higher on the PGA Tour than the DP World Tour, but the stats below show a significant difference in results this campaign.

Jordan’s results

  • Cuts made: 12-of-16
  • T40s: 10
  • T20s: 6
  • T10s: 1

Cink’s results

  • Cuts made: 11-of-21
  • T40s: 2
  • T20s: 0
  • T10s: 0

The 10/13 (-130) odds provided by William Hill Sportsbook (also Caesars) in Jordan’s favor certainly appear to be an excellent value, especially with oddsmakers giving a worse line on other sites. It’s important to remember that underdogs, regardless of their age, can go low, especially during a single round of 18 holes, so please gamble responsibly.

Both players’ complete tournament logs, which display scores from every round this season, can be seen below (courtesy of ESPN).

Jordan’s 2022-23 DP World Tournaments
11/24 – 11/27

Fortinet Australian PGA Championship

Royal Queensland Golf Club
Missed Cut76-70146 (+4)
1/19 – 1/22
T3469-71-69-71280 (-8)
1/26 – 1/30

Dubai Desert Classic

Emirates Golf Club
T2068-72-69-70279 (-9)
2/2 – 2/5
T1971-65-74-68278 (-10)
2/9 – 2/12

Singapore Classic

Laguna National Golf Club
T1771-69-67-69276 (-12)
2/16 – 2/19

Thailand Classic

Amata Spring CC
Missed Cut73-71144 (E)
3/9 – 3/12
T3568-68-68-73277 (-7)
3/16 – 3/19

SDC Championship

St. Francis Links
Missed Cut77-81158 (+14)
5/4 – 5/7
Missed Cut73-76149 (+7)
5/25 – 5/28

KLM Open

Bernardus Golf Club
T1674-69-70-70283 (-5)
6/1 – 6/4

Porsche European Open

Green Eagle Golf Course
T2273-73-71-76293 (+1)
6/8 – 6/11
T971-68-66-70275 (-13)
6/29 – 7/2
T3469-73-70-75287 (-1)
7/6 – 7/9

Made in HimmerLand

Himmerland Golf & Spa Resort
T1771-68-68-65272 (-8)
Cink’s 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments
9/15 – 9/18

Fortinet Championship

Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
Missed Cut74-71145 (+1)
9/29 – 10/2

Sanderson Farms Championship

Country Club of Jackson
T4570-72-71-69282 (-6)$21,795
10/6 – 10/9
T4469-66-71-67273 (-11)$23,000
11/10 – 11/13

Cadence Bank Houston Open

Memorial Park Golf Course
T5768-71-74-72285 (+5)$19,236
11/17 – 11/20

The RSM Classic

Sea Island Resort (Seaside Course)
Missed Cut70-69139 (-3)
1/12 – 1/15

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae Country Club
T2166-68-67-68269 (-11)$77,025
1/19 – 1/22

The American Express

Pete Dye Stadium Course
T4167-68-70-68273 (-15)$26,924
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
6569-72-76-74291 (+7)$43,000
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
Missed Cut72-74146 (+4)
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
Missed Cut73-79152 (+8)
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
Missed Cut72-81153 (+9)
3/16 – 3/19

Valspar Championship

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Missed Cut69-76145 (+3)
3/30 – 4/2

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Missed Cut72-74146 (+2)
4/13 – 4/16

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
Missed Cut68-73141 (-1)
5/4 – 5/7

Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Club
6771-66-78-74289 (+5)$42,200
5/11 – 5/14

AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
T3473-65-66-67271 (-13)$45,442
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
T6073-71-78-76298 (+10)$44,800
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
Missed Cut70-75145 (+5)
6/22 – 6/25

Travelers Championship

TPC River Highlands
Missed Cut73-64137 (-3)

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