The Open Championship 2023 – Day 1 Betting Tips and Predictions

The Open Championship 2023 – Day 1 Betting Tips and Predictions
July 18, 2023; Hoylake, England, GBR; Brooks Koepka hits his tee shot on the fifth hole during a practice round of The Open Championship. Photo by Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

A field of 156 golfers will tee it up at this week’s Open Championship hosted by Royal Liverpool Golf Club. The 151st edition of the tournament has a $16.5 million purse up for grabs and, of course, the historic Claret Jug.

World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and Northern Irishman Rory McIlroy are the two favorites to win, followed by 2023 Masters winner Jon Rahm, defending Open champ Cameron Smith and 2023 PGA Champion Brooks Koepka.

There are a plethora of different bet types to choose from, and we’ll highlight two Open Championship predictions ahead of round one.

The Open Championship Day 1 Tips: Tournament Finish

The top finish prediction below is for all 72 holes.

Brooks Koepka to finish top 20 @ +110

It’s pretty wild to find Koepka at plus money to finish top 20 at a major. His line has shifted because of his T17 at the U.S. Open when he wasn’t in contention and a T17 two weeks ago at LIV London in his warmup for the Open.

Koepka still managed a top 20 at the U.S. Open and was in full celebration mode the three weeks leading up to it after his win at the PGA Championship. He seems to be locked in once again and will certainly want to add the Claret Jug, a trophy he hasn’t won, to his collection.

The five-time major champion has finished sixth or better in two of his last three Open Championship appearances. Since 2014, he’s put up crazy numbers at majors, even while enduring a slump due to injury.

Koepka’s major record since 2014

  • Starts: 34
  • Wins: 5
  • Top 20s or better: 24
  • Top 20 percentage: 70.58%
  • British Open top 20 percentage: 57.14%

This season, the West Palm Beach, Florida native has earned a top 20 finish in all three majors.

Koepka’s 2023 majors

  • The Masters: T2
  • PGA Championship: Won
  • U.S. Open: T17

The 33-year-old’s form hasn’t just been excellent in majors. It’s also been more than solid on LIV. This campaign, he won at LIV Orlando in early April and has collected four top 5 finishes in nine events. Aside from struggling in the first two events, he’s only finished worse than T12 once.

Koepka’s also been one of the best players on the planet when playing links courses since 2015. Data compiled by analyst Ron Klos shows the Florida State product has picked up an average of 1.86 strokes gained per round on such tracks (56 rounds), which is slightly better than Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm.

Many people forget that Koepka’s professional career began in Europe, where he won on the Challenge Tour and European Tour. He had plenty of links experiences throughout the span of 2012-2014.

Koepka’s 2023 LIV Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
2/24 – 2/26

LIV Golf Invitational Mayakoba

El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
T2771-72-71214 (+1)
3/17 – 3/19

LIV Golf Invitational Tucson

The Gallery Golf Club
T2469-69-73211 (-2)
3/31 – 4/2

LIV Golf Invitational Orlando

Orange County National
165-65-68198 (-15)
4/21 – 4/23

LIV Golf Invitational Adelaide

The Grange Golf Club
T1169-65-70204 (-12)
4/28 – 4/30

LIV Golf Invitational Singapore

Sentosa Golf Club (Serapong Course)
365-65-67197 (-16)
5/12 – 5/14

LIV Golf Invitational Tulsa

Cedar Ridge Country Club
T568-65-65198 (-12)
5/26 – 5/28

LIV Golf Invitational DC

Trump National Golf Club
T1272-69-70211 (-5)
6/30 – 7/2
371-65-68204 (-9)
7/7 – 7/9
T1772-66-68206 (-7)

The Open Championship Day 1 Predictions: Top Golfer by Category

The following pick is for the entire tournament.

Guido Migliozzi to finish top Italian @ 1/1 (+100)

The 26-year-old Italian is by no means a top star in the world game but only has to defeat a struggling Francesco Molinari to finish as the top Italian this week.

Miggliozi has made four straight cuts and seven of his last nine, which includes a pair of top 30 finishes and a pair of top 15s.

Molinari has missed five cuts in a row and, since the start of 2023, has missed 10 cuts and made just four.

Migliozzi results (2022-2023)

  • Starts: 14
  • Cuts made: 8
  • Top 30s: 4
  • Cut percentage: 57.14%

Molinari results (2022-2023)

  • Starts: 18
  • Cuts made: 7
  • Top 30s: 4
  • Cut percentage: 38.88%

This season, in terms of total strokes gained, Migliozzi has picked more than half a stroke on his Italian counterpart.

Strokes Gained Total

  • Migliozzi: 0.01 in 43 rounds on the DP World Tour
  • Molinari: -0.523 in 35 rounds on the PGA Tour

Both players participated in last week’s Genesis Scottish Open, with Migliozzi finishing in a T54 (-2) and Molinari missing the cut (+1).

While Molinari does have better experience on links courses, based on the massive difference in form, I’m willing to take Migliozzi at even money to finish ahead of Molinari.

For full results on both players, click the hyperlink to see scorecards and complete tournament logs.

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