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[nsn_tip count=1 tip1=”Tyrrell Hatton over Corey Conners” reason1=”Head-to-head matchup (18 holes)” odds1=”20/29 (-145)” logo1=”https://punditfeed.com/app/uploads/nsntips/williamhill.png” bookmaker1=”williamhill” url1=”https://punditfeed.com/go-william-hill-ufc-282″ target=”undefined” color_cta=”#000000″ text_cta=”white”]
There are 18 holes left to play at the 2023 Open Championship before one player is awarded the historic Claret Jug. Brian Harman holds the highest chance thanks to his five-stroke lead (12-under for the week) over Cameron Young (7-under) and Jon Rahm (6-under).
There have been a couple of historic feats accomplished at the event, with Harman tying the 36-hole scoring record (10-under) and Rahm carding the lowest round (8-under 63) ever at an Open hosted by Royal Liverpool Golf Club.
We’ll provide one final round betting tip on a player we think holds an edge on Sunday.
The Open Championship Day 4 Pick: Head-to-head Matchup
The prediction below is only for the 18 holes played on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton over Corey Conners @ 20/29 (-145)
After three rounds at the Open Championship, both Hatton and Conners sit in a tie for 24th at 1-under par.
This matchup is intriguing because, despite Conners being an excellent golfer on the PGA Tour, Hatton has been even better, outperforming the Canadian in many important categories.
Scoring average (all four rounds)
- Hatton: 69.301 in 62 rounds (6th on tour)
- Conners: 70.201 in 66 rounds (28th on tour)
In 2022-2023, Hatton has a final round scoring average that is 0.69 strokes better than Conners’.
Final round scoring averages
- Hatton: 68.58 (15 PGA Tour rounds and 2 DP World Tour)
- Conners: 69.27 (15 PGA Tour rounds)
The Englishman has also outdueled Conners in three of their previous five shared final rounds (3-1-1 record).
Hatton vs. Conners in their last five final rounds
| Tournament | Hatton’s Rd 4 Score | Conners’ Rd 4 Score |
| Genesis Scottish Open | 69 | 66 |
| RBC Canadian Open | 64 | 74 |
| PGA Championship | 67 | 75 |
| Wells Fargo Championship | 70 | 70 |
| RBC Heritage | 66 | 72 |
The World No. 13, Hatton, is a links golf specialist and is averaging 0.91 strokes gained more per round on such tracks than Conners (World No. 30) since 2015.
Strokes gained average on links courses since 2015 (H/T Ron Klos)
- Hatton: 1.74 in 113 rounds
- Conners: 0.83 in 24 rounds
In terms of strokes gained total, Hatton has picked up an average of 1.045 more than Conners this season and is one of the tour’s most elite.
Strokes gained total on the PGA Tour (2022-2023)
- Hatton: 2.087 (4th on tour)
- Conners: 1.042 (21st on tour)
The High Wycombe, England native has played much more consistently, missing only one cut in 17 total events and earning five top 5s, eight top 10s and 12 top 20s.
Conners, on the other hand, has had more trouble putting four rounds together and has missed five cuts in 15 events, including two cuts in his last five leading up to the tournament. He’s collected one top 5 (win at Texas Open), three top 10s and nine top 20 finishes.
With Hatton’s advantage in all the categories mentioned and having a home-field advantage in his home country, the 20/29 (-145) line provided by William Hill holds value. Remember, anything can happen in 18 holes, and underdogs can easily upset, so please gamble responsibly.
If you’re interested in viewing the full results for each player, check out the tournament logs below.
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/13 – 10/16
|
Accordia Golf Narashino CC
|
T45 | 70-70-70-68 | 278 (-2) | $27,638 |
|
10/20 – 10/23
|
Congaree Golf Club
|
T13 | 67-68-71-69 | 275 (-9) | $189,756 |
|
2/9 – 2/12
|
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
|
T6 | 70-67-67-69 | 273 (-11) | $652,500 |
|
2/16 – 2/19
|
Riviera Country Club
|
T40 | 70-71-70-71 | 282 (-2) | $79,000 |
|
3/2 – 3/5
|
Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
|
T4 | 71-72-66-72 | 281 (-7) | $800,000 |
|
3/9 – 3/12
|
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
|
2 | 72-71-68-65 | 276 (-12) | $2,725,000 |
|
3/30 – 4/2
|
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
|
Missed Cut | 70-75 | 145 (+1) | — |
|
4/6 – 4/9
|
Augusta National Golf Club
|
T34 | 71-73-72-76 | 292 (+4) | $97,200 |
|
4/13 – 4/16
|
Harbour Town Golf Links
|
T19 | 68-70-70-66 | 274 (-10) | $237,000 |
|
5/4 – 5/7
|
Quail Hollow Club
|
T3 | 69-65-68-70 | 272 (-12) | $1,180,000 |
|
5/11 – 5/14
|
TPC Craig Ranch
|
T5 | 68-67-65-64 | 264 (-20) | $351,500 |
|
5/18 – 5/21
|
Oak Hill Country Club
|
T15 | 77-68-69-67 | 281 (+1) | $288,333 |
|
6/1 – 6/4
|
The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club
|
T12 | 71-71-73-72 | 287 (-1) | $410,000 |
|
6/8 – 6/11
|
Oakdale Golf & Country Club
|
T3 | 72-64-72-64 | 272 (-16) | $477,000 |
|
6/15 – 6/18
|
Los Angeles Country Club
|
T27 | 74-67-69-72 | 282 (+2) | $143,295 |
|
7/13 – 7/16
|
The Renaissance Club
|
T6 | 69-62-71-69 | 271 (-9) | $261,990 |
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
9/15 – 9/18
|
Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
|
Missed Cut | 70-74 | 144 (E) | — |
|
10/13 – 10/16
|
Accordia Golf Narashino CC
|
T25 | 73-67-67-67 | 274 (-6) | $85,085 |
|
10/20 – 10/23
|
Congaree Golf Club
|
T23 | 70-68-69-71 | 278 (-6) | $88,305 |
|
12/1 – 12/4
|
Albany
|
16 | 75-76-72-67 | 290 (+2) | — |
|
1/5 – 1/8
|
Sentry Tournament of Champions Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
|
T18 | 68-68-72-67 | 275 (-17) | $229,000 |
|
1/12 – 1/15
|
Waialae Country Club
|
T12 | 69-66-68-65 | 268 (-12) | $138,908 |
|
2/9 – 2/12
|
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
|
T50 | 70-72-71-70 | 283 (-1) | $48,543 |
|
2/16 – 2/19
|
Riviera Country Club
|
61 | 71-72-75-69 | 287 (+3) | $44,600 |
|
3/2 – 3/5
|
Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
|
T21 | 72-66-75-72 | 285 (-3) | $226,333 |
|
3/9 – 3/12
|
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
|
Missed Cut | 75-75 | 150 (+6) | — |
|
3/30 – 4/2
|
TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
|
1 | 64-72-69-68 | 273 (-15) | $1,602,000 |
|
4/6 – 4/9
|
Augusta National Golf Club
|
Missed Cut | 73-79 | 152 (+8) | — |
|
4/13 – 4/16
|
Harbour Town Golf Links
|
T31 | 70-68-67-72 | 277 (-7) | $107,400 |
|
5/4 – 5/7
|
Quail Hollow Club
|
T8 | 70-69-66-70 | 275 (-9) | $525,000 |
|
5/18 – 5/21
|
Oak Hill Country Club
|
T12 | 67-68-70-75 | 280 (E) | $365,000 |
|
6/1 – 6/4
|
The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club
|
Missed Cut | 77-75 | 152 (+8) | — |
|
6/8 – 6/11
|
Oakdale Golf & Country Club
|
T20 | 67-69-70-74 | 280 (-8) | $102,330 |
|
6/15 – 6/18
|
Los Angeles Country Club
|
Missed Cut | 70-74 | 144 (+4) | — |
|
6/22 – 6/25
|
TPC River Highlands
|
T9 | 67-65-65-66 | 263 (-17) | $525,000 |
|
7/13 – 7/16
|
The Renaissance Club
|
T19 | 72-65-71-66 | 274 (-6) | $105,750 |
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