Golf

The Open Championship 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tip and Prediction

The Open Championship 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tip and Prediction
England's Tyrrell Hatton tees off the 4th during day three of The Open at Royal Liverpool, Wirral. Picture date: Saturday July 22, 2023. - Photo by Icon Sport

There are 18 holes left to play at the 2023 Open Championship before one player is awarded the historic Claret Jug. Brian Harman holds the highest chance thanks to his five-stroke lead (12-under for the week) over Cameron Young (7-under) and Jon Rahm (6-under).

There have been a couple of historic feats accomplished at the event, with Harman tying the 36-hole scoring record (10-under) and Rahm carding the lowest round (8-under 63) ever at an Open hosted by Royal Liverpool Golf Club.

We’ll provide one final round betting tip on a player we think holds an edge on Sunday.

The Open Championship Day 4 Pick: Head-to-head Matchup

The prediction below is only for the 18 holes played on Sunday.

Tyrrell Hatton over Corey Conners @ 20/29 (-145)

After three rounds at the Open Championship, both Hatton and Conners sit in a tie for 24th at 1-under par.

This matchup is intriguing because, despite Conners being an excellent golfer on the PGA Tour, Hatton has been even better, outperforming the Canadian in many important categories.

Scoring average (all four rounds)

  • Hatton: 69.301 in 62 rounds (6th on tour)
  • Conners: 70.201 in 66 rounds (28th on tour)

In 2022-2023, Hatton has a final round scoring average that is 0.69 strokes better than Conners’.

Final round scoring averages

  • Hatton: 68.58 (15 PGA Tour rounds and 2 DP World Tour)
  • Conners: 69.27 (15 PGA Tour rounds)

The Englishman has also outdueled Conners in three of their previous five shared final rounds (3-1-1 record).

Hatton vs. Conners in their last five final rounds

TournamentHatton’s Rd 4 ScoreConners’ Rd 4 Score
Genesis Scottish Open6966
RBC Canadian Open6474
PGA Championship6775
Wells Fargo Championship7070
RBC Heritage6672

The World No. 13, Hatton, is a links golf specialist and is averaging 0.91 strokes gained more per round on such tracks than Conners (World No. 30) since 2015.

Strokes gained average on links courses since 2015 (H/T Ron Klos)

  • Hatton: 1.74 in 113 rounds
  • Conners: 0.83 in 24 rounds

In terms of strokes gained total, Hatton has picked up an average of 1.045 more than Conners this season and is one of the tour’s most elite.

Strokes gained total on the PGA Tour (2022-2023)

  • Hatton: 2.087 (4th on tour)
  • Conners: 1.042 (21st on tour)

The High Wycombe, England native has played much more consistently, missing only one cut in 17 total events and earning five top 5s, eight top 10s and 12 top 20s.

Conners, on the other hand, has had more trouble putting four rounds together and has missed five cuts in 15 events, including two cuts in his last five leading up to the tournament. He’s collected one top 5 (win at Texas Open), three top 10s and nine top 20 finishes.

With Hatton’s advantage in all the categories mentioned and having a home-field advantage in his home country, the 20/29 (-145) line provided by William Hill holds value. Remember, anything can happen in 18 holes, and underdogs can easily upset, so please gamble responsibly.

If you’re interested in viewing the full results for each player, check out the tournament logs below.

Hatton’s 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
DATETOURNAMENTPOSOVERALL SCOREEARNINGS
10/13 – 10/16

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Accordia Golf Narashino CC
T4570-70-70-68278 (-2)$27,638
10/20 – 10/23
T1367-68-71-69275 (-9)$189,756
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
T670-67-67-69273 (-11)$652,500
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
T4070-71-70-71282 (-2)$79,000
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
T471-72-66-72281 (-7)$800,000
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
272-71-68-65276 (-12)$2,725,000
3/30 – 4/2

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
Missed Cut70-75145 (+1)
4/6 – 4/9

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club
T3471-73-72-76292 (+4)$97,200
4/13 – 4/16

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
T1968-70-70-66274 (-10)$237,000
5/4 – 5/7

Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Club
T369-65-68-70272 (-12)$1,180,000
5/11 – 5/14

AT&T Byron Nelson

TPC Craig Ranch
T568-67-65-64264 (-20)$351,500
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T1577-68-69-67281 (+1)$288,333
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
T1271-71-73-72287 (-1)$410,000
6/8 – 6/11

RBC Canadian Open

Oakdale Golf & Country Club
T372-64-72-64272 (-16)$477,000
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
T2774-67-69-72282 (+2)$143,295
7/13 – 7/16

Genesis Scottish Open

The Renaissance Club
T669-62-71-69271 (-9)$261,990
Conners’ 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
DATETOURNAMENTPOSOVERALL SCOREEARNINGS
9/15 – 9/18

Fortinet Championship

Silverado Resort and Spa (North Course)
Missed Cut70-74144 (E)
10/13 – 10/16

ZOZO CHAMPIONSHIP

Accordia Golf Narashino CC
T2573-67-67-67274 (-6)$85,085
10/20 – 10/23
T2370-68-69-71278 (-6)$88,305
12/1 – 12/4
1675-76-72-67290 (+2)
1/5 – 1/8

Sentry Tournament of Champions

Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
T1868-68-72-67275 (-17)$229,000
1/12 – 1/15

Sony Open in Hawaii

Waialae Country Club
T1269-66-68-65268 (-12)$138,908
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
T5070-72-71-70283 (-1)$48,543
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
6171-72-75-69287 (+3)$44,600
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
T2172-66-75-72285 (-3)$226,333
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
Missed Cut75-75150 (+6)
3/30 – 4/2

Valero Texas Open

TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
164-72-69-68273 (-15)$1,602,000
4/6 – 4/9

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club
Missed Cut73-79152 (+8)
4/13 – 4/16

RBC Heritage

Harbour Town Golf Links
T3170-68-67-72277 (-7)$107,400
5/4 – 5/7

Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Club
T870-69-66-70275 (-9)$525,000
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T1267-68-70-75280 (E)$365,000
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
Missed Cut77-75152 (+8)
6/8 – 6/11

RBC Canadian Open

Oakdale Golf & Country Club
T2067-69-70-74280 (-8)$102,330
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
Missed Cut70-74144 (+4)
6/22 – 6/25

Travelers Championship

TPC River Highlands
T967-65-65-66263 (-17)$525,000
7/13 – 7/16

Genesis Scottish Open

The Renaissance Club
T1972-65-71-66274 (-6)$105,750


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