Italy vs Wales Prediction and Odds: Six Nations

With the unwanted Wooden Spoon up for grabs, Wales travel to Rome to take on Italy at the Stadio Olimpico to kick off Round 4 of the 2023 Six Nations.

Neither team were expected to challenge for the top spots of this year’s competition but eyebrows have been raised by both sides. Italy have caught the eye of many neutrals with their free-flowing style of rugby which has resulted in close, high-scoring games so far. However, Wales have been very disappointing and although they have their usual determination, there are very few world class players in their squad capable of turning a game with a moment of brilliance.

Ahead of this weekend of fixtures, here are our two best bets which we recommend for the Italy vs Wales clash.

These odds from Ladbrokes were correct at the time of writing.

Italy vs Wales – Match Prediction

Like all rugby fans, we can’t stop ourselves from making rugby predictions. Let’s zoom in on the tips for this match:

Italy to Win @ 11/10 (2.10)

After losing by only five points at home to France in Round 1 and by 14 points to Ireland in Rome in Round 3, Italy have shown themselves to be capable of going toe-to-toe with the top teams in the tournament, particularly in front of their home fans. They beat Wales in Cardiff last year and have looked far stronger than them across this competition. For those reasons, we are predicting a win for Italy.

Total Points Over 46.5 @ 10/11 (1.91)

All three of Italy’s 2023 Six Nations games have yielded more than 46.5 points with their results reading 24-29, 14-31 and 20-34. And although Wales and opponents have been under 46.5 in each of their defeats, they are yet to come up against a team who will look to run the ball and prioritise tries in the way that Italy will. The style of the hosts should also open up more opportunities for Wales to perhaps score more than 10 points in a game for the first time in the campaign.

We expect to see plenty of points and would not be surprised to see the 50 point mark breached.

Italy vs Wales Preview

With these two bets in mind, here’s a brief look at how each team is shaping up:

Italy vs WalesItaly

After impressing with their performances, even if those displays are yet to produce a draw or a win, Italy have made only one change to their team for this match. Toulouse full-back Ange Capuozzu will miss the rest of the tournament and Harlequins’ Tomasso Allan has come into the team to take his place.

Italy XV: 15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Edoardo Padovani, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Pierre Bruno, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Stephen Varney, 8 Lorenzo Cannone, 7 Michele Lamaro (c), 6 Sebastian Negri, 5 Federico Ruzza, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 3 Simone Ferrari, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 1 Danilo Fischetti


With zero points on the board, head coach Warren Gatland has opted to roll the dice and make changes to his line-up once more. Going into this game in Rome, Wales will have six different players on the field compared to their starting 15 against England.

Wales XV: 15 Liam Williams, 14 Josh Adams, 13 Mason Grady, 12 Joe Hawkins, 11 Rio Dyer, 10 Owen Williams, 9 Rhys Webb, 1 Wyn Jones, 2 Ken Owens (c), 3 Tomas Francis, 4 Adam Beard, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 Jac Morgan, 7 Justin Tipuric, 8 Taulupe Faletau

Italy vs Wales Head to Head

This will be the 32nd Italy vs Wales clash in rugby union and Wales have a very strong 27-3 lead. However, Italy got their third victory in the head to head last March, in Cardiff no-less, and they will be very confident of recording their fourth win in this clash.

Italy vs Wales Match Details

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