Novak Djokovic ATP Finals – can the Serb win a record-breaking 7th title?

If you perform a quick search relating to ‘Novak Djokovic ATP Finals’, the numbers that will pop out might knock you off your chair.

Of course, the Serbian is the most successful tennis player of all time, with 24 Grand Slams to his name. Yet, while his Grand Slams and Masters 1000 titles receive plenty of coverage, his consistency at the ATP Finals tends to slip under the radar.

Novak Djokovic ATP Finals

To clarify, Novak Djokovic’s ATP Finals records have been matched by only one man – Roger Federer. This relates to the number of times that Djokovic has managed to win the ATP Finals, which is six, to be specific. So naturally, this time around in Turin, Djokovic is looking to set himself apart from Federer with a 7th ATP Finals title.

Personally, I find it very exciting that Novak Djokovic is chasing such records, even at the ripe old age of 36. Yet here’s the bottom line that I wish to address today – will Djokovic break the record and achieve number seven in Turin this year? Let’s assess his chances now.

Novak Djokovic ATP Finals 2023 – breakdown of his group

If you check the latest ATP Finals schedule, you’ll see that Novak Djokovic is set to begin his campaign on Sunday, November 12th. More specifically, he will open up his chase for a 7th ATP Finals title in the evening on Sunday against Holger Rune. This is a tricky way to start, especially since Rune has caused Djokovic problems and even beaten him in the past.

Yet besides his opening match against Holger Rune, there are two other guys whom Novak Djokovic will face in the Green Group. Here’s how things look:

Green Group

  • Novak Djokovic (1)
  • Jannik Sinner (4)
  • Stefanos Tsitsipas (6)
  • Holger Rune (8)

As per the ATP Finals format, Novak Djokovic will play all of these three guys in the round-robin stage of the tournament. He must finish inside the top two in the group in order to progress through to the knockout stages, which he should do, to be perfectly honest. But who will then stand in his way once the ATP Finals reach the semi-finals?

Novak Djokovic ATP Finals – a look ahead to the semis and finals

Of course, nobody has a crystal ball to state who Djokovic will face in the semi-finals of the 2023 ATP Finals. However, we can look at the pool of players in the Red Group to at least hazard a guess as to who will make it through. Below, I’ve detailed the Red Group along with predictions concerning who could make the knockout stages:

Red Group

  • Carlos Alcaraz (2)
  • Daniil Medvedev (3)
  • Andrey Rublev (5)
  • Alexander Zverev (7)

In my opinion, the Red Group is incredibly open, and each of these four guys has a realistic chance of qualifying for the knockout stages. However, if I were to hazard a guess, I’d say that Alcaraz and Rublev will make it. I say this because of a combination of their general abilities on indoor hard courts, as well as their form.

2023 Novak Djokovic ATP Finals chances – form coming into the event

It’s been another sensational season for Novak Djokovic. He won three of the four Grand Slam tournaments, and he lost in the final of the other. Needless to say, he has a clear knack for bringing his best tennis when it really matters.

But in terms of recent form, I feel it’s best to look at what he has done over the last couple of months. Once again, this makes for impressive reading if you are a Novak Djokovic fan. He has competed in just two high-profile events in recent months – the US Open and Paris Masters. 

Novak Djokovic won both of these events, so it’s undeniable that he is in fantastic form coming into the 2023 ATP Finals. 

Novak Djokovic ATP finals
Photo by Icon sport

The bottom line – is a new Novak Djokovic ATP Finals record on the horizon?

Based on a range of factors covering his form, confidence, draw, and previous performances at the ATP Finals, I definitely feel this one is Djokovic’s for the taking. Believe it or not, Novak Djokovic has lost just one match since winning Roland Garros back in May/June 2023. As you might recall, this loss came against Carlos Alcaraz in the 2023 Wimbledon final.

But looking at all the tournaments he has played in 2023, including Roland Garros and beyond, he has beaten all the guys in the Red Group at least once. He has also beaten all players in the Green Group at least once from Roland Garros and beyond, except Stefanos Tsitsipas – only because they haven’t played!

Combine this with the fact that the Novak Djokovic ATP Finals 2022 victory was flawless, and things certainly look promising for an incredible 7th title.

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