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Russell Henley began the Wyndham Championship with a blistering 8-under par round of 62. The 34-year-old leads Adam Svensson and Byeong-hun An by one stroke entering Friday’s second round at Sedgefield Country Club.
The Macon, Georgia native, Henley, has recorded three-straight top-five finishes at Sedgefield in Greensboro, N.C., since 2020 and is searching for his second win this season.
This event is the last opportunity for players to cement their place into the top 70 of the FedEx Cup Standings in order to qualify for next week’s playoffs. Notable players such as Shane Lowry (76th), Justin Thomas (79th) and Adam Scott (81st) will need high finishes since they are currently outside of the top 70.
In this article, I’ll provide a round two betting tip for a head-to-head matchup that appears to hold value.
Wyndham Championship Day 2 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup
The following pick is for the 18 holes played on Friday.
Shane Lowry over Justin Thomas @ 10/12 (-120)
A year ago, I probably wouldn’t have taken Lowry in this matchup, but the current state of Thomas’ game is in shambles while Lowry’s has been solid.
The two-time major champion, Thomas, has missed back-to-back cuts, including five of his previous eight. He’s in danger of missing the Ryder Cup, and after his opening round of even par on Thursday, it’s unlikely he will qualify for the FedEx Cup playoffs.
Lowry, on the other hand, hasn’t had a spectacular season by any means, but he’s only missed three cuts in 17 events on the PGA Tour (2022-2023) and has endured a decent year.
The 2019 Open Champion missed the cut at the Open but recorded five top-20 finishes in the six events before that. In 2022-2023, the Irishman has averaged .553 strokes lower than Thomas in the second rounds of tournaments.
Second-round scoring averages
- Lowry: 70.647 in 17 rounds
- Thomas: 71.2 in 20 rounds
In terms of their total scoring averages, Lowry is averaging .619 strokes better than Thomas in this campaign.
Total scoring averages
- Lowry: 70.151 in 58 rounds (ranked 26th)
- Thomas: 70.770 in 64 rounds (ranked 81st)
The two golfers have played completely differently since the PGA Championship in May.
Results since the PGA Championship
- Lowry: T12, T16, T43, T20, T19, T12, MC
- Thomas: T65, MC, MC, T9, MC, T60, MC, MC
During the same span since the PGA Championship, Thomas has lost strokes in six of the eight events played. Conversely, Lowry gained strokes in six of his seven tournaments aside from at the Open Championship.
The University College Dublin product also has more course experience at Sedgefield than Thomas. Lowry’s played the course five times since 2016, with his best finish (seventh place) coming that year. Over those seven years, he’s gained an average of 0.69 strokes per round.
Thomas has only played the event twice, in 2015 and 2016, as a youngster. The Goshen, Kentucky native lost an average of .70 strokes gained in his two appearances, but the stat doesn’t hold much weight since he was a newcomer on tour.
The Clara, Ireland native’s odds of 10/12 (-120) to defeat Thomas on Unibet definitely seem like a misprice, thanks to his recent form compared to Thomas’.
It’s important to remember that upsets often happen in head-to-head matchups, and Thomas has been one of the tour’s best aside from this year, so he can pop off at any time.
Lowry’s full scorecards and tournament logs can be seen below. Thomas’ results can be seen here.
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10/20 – 10/23 | Congaree Golf Club | T23 | 68-67-71-72 | 278 (-6) | $88,305 |
12/1 – 12/4 | Albany | 18 | 74-77-71-71 | 293 (+5) | — |
2/9 – 2/12 | TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course) | Missed Cut | 75-76 | 151 (+9) | — |
2/16 – 2/19 | Riviera Country Club | T14 | 69-69-71-68 | 277 (-7) | $355,000 |
2/23 – 2/26 | PGA National Resort & Spa (The Champion) | T5 | 68-68-65-70 | 271 (-9) | $288,120 |
3/2 – 3/5 | Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge | 67 | 72-70-80-71 | 293 (+5) | $42,600 |
3/9 – 3/12 | TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course) | T35 | 77-69-68-70 | 284 (-4) | $114,167 |
4/6 – 4/9 | Augusta National Golf Club | T16 | 68-72-73-73 | 286 (-2) | $261,000 |
4/13 – 4/16 | Harbour Town Golf Links | T67 | 70-69-74-72 | 285 (+1) | $41,600 |
5/4 – 5/7 | Quail Hollow Club | Missed Cut | 72-72 | 144 (+2) | — |
5/18 – 5/21 | Oak Hill Country Club | T12 | 73-67-71-69 | 280 (E) | $365,000 |
6/1 – 6/4 | The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club | T16 | 69-76-70-73 | 288 (E) | $275,500 |
6/8 – 6/11 | Oakdale Golf & Country Club | T43 | 72-69-70-73 | 284 (-4) | $28,530 |
6/15 – 6/18 | Los Angeles Country Club | T20 | 72-70-68-71 | 281 (+1) | $200,152 |
6/22 – 6/25 | TPC River Highlands | T19 | 64-69-69-64 | 266 (-14) | $245,800 |
7/13 – 7/16 | The Renaissance Club | T12 | 71-64-65-73 | 273 (-7) | $151,007 |
7/20 – 7/23 | Royal Liverpool GC | Missed Cut | 72-77 | 149 (+7) | — |
8/3 – 8/6 | Sedgefield Country Club | T35 | 68 | 68 (-2) | — |
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