The first two rounds of the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club featured a crowded leaderboard, but after Saturday, Viktor Hovland separated himself from the pack and holds a six-shot lead at 20-under par.
A 4-under 66 third-round score gives the Norwegian a chance to win in back-to-back starts and capture his third title since May. Chasing the 25-year-old is Xander Schauffele at 14-under, followed by Collin Morikawa (13-under) and Keegan Bradley (13-under).
It’s likely there will be a first-time FedEx Cup winner come Sunday. All three betting favorites mentioned above will battle for the $18 million dollar top prize and a five-year PGA Tour exemption.
In this article, we’ll provide one head-to-head matchup prediction for the final round.
Tour Championship day 4 tip: Tournament finish
The pick below is for a top-five finish over the course of the entire tournament. Ties are included.
Scottie Scheffler to finish top 5 @ 10/11 (-110) on Ladbrokes
Scheffler has been a top-five machine for the majority of this season, and the 10/11 (-110) odds for him to finish fifth or better hold fantastic value since he begins the final round in a tie for fifth at 11-under. The world No. 1 uncharacteristically struggled on Saturday, shooting a 3-over par 73.
The resident of Dallas, Texas, is due for a bounce-back day, and if there’s anyone who can do it, it’s him. He’s enjoyed a “Tigeresque” season in terms of ball striking and has dominated the tour statistics leaderboards. Among these is his scoring average over all four rounds.
Scoring average
- 68.516 (ranked first)
The 26-year-old also thrives under pressure in final rounds. Last week at the BMW Championship, it appeared as if he’d win a third title this season if not for a final round 61 by winner Viktor Hovland.
Final round scoring average
67.76 (ranked third)
For the overall campaign, Scheffler has made the top 5 in 59% of starts. Although, he’s been on a historic run and earned seven consecutive top-five finishes from May 14 to July 16. Over his last 10 starts, he’s collected eight top 10 finishes (80%).
Scheffler’s 2022-2023 top five stats
- Starts: 22
- Top 5s: 13
- Top 5 percentage: 59%
According to PGA Tour data analyst Ron Klos, Scheffler is eighth-best in the field in terms of strokes gained per round (0.52) at East Lake from 2015-2022, so despite a bad third round, he does fit the course well. In 2020, he finished in second place at East Lake (without starting strokes).
Data Golf’s stats also show he’s average positive strokes gained in every tournament this season, and on the PGA Tour, he ranks first in strokes gained total per round (2.502).
The major winner’s full stats and scorecards can be seen below, and his astonishingly high rankings in major categories can be viewed on the PGA Tour’s website.
| DATE | TOURNAMENT | POS | OVERALL SCORE | EARNINGS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10/20 – 10/23
|
Congaree Golf Club
|
T45 | 71-68-74-70 | 283 (-1) | $29,085 |
|
11/3 – 11/6
|
World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba El Camaleón Golf Course at Mayakoba
|
T3 | 65-71-68-62 | 266 (-18) | $375,560 |
|
11/10 – 11/13
|
Memorial Park Golf Course
|
T9 | 70-66-71-67 | 274 (-6) | $196,500 |
|
12/1 – 12/4
|
Albany
|
2 | 72-68-66-68 | 274 (-14) | — |
|
1/5 – 1/8
|
Sentry Tournament of Champions Kapalua Resort (Plantation Course)
|
T7 | 66-66-69-70 | 271 (-21) | $368,750 |
|
1/19 – 1/22
|
Pete Dye Stadium Course
|
T11 | 68-65-66-67 | 266 (-22) | $171,600 |
|
2/9 – 2/12
|
TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
|
1 | 68-64-68-65 | 265 (-19) | $3,600,000 |
|
2/16 – 2/19
|
Riviera Country Club
|
T12 | 70-68-70-68 | 276 (-8) | $445,000 |
|
3/2 – 3/5
|
Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
|
T4 | 68-72-68-73 | 281 (-7) | $800,000 |
|
3/9 – 3/12
|
TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
|
1 | 68-69-65-69 | 271 (-17) | $4,500,000 |
|
4/6 – 4/9
|
Augusta National Golf Club
|
T10 | 68-75-71-70 | 284 (-4) | $432,000 |
|
4/13 – 4/16
|
Harbour Town Golf Links
|
T11 | 68-65-69-70 | 272 (-12) | $445,000 |
|
5/11 – 5/14
|
TPC Craig Ranch
|
T5 | 64-64-71-65 | 264 (-20) | $351,500 |
|
5/18 – 5/21
|
Oak Hill Country Club
|
T2 | 67-68-73-65 | 273 (-7) | $1,540,000 |
|
5/25 – 5/28
|
Colonial Country Club
|
T3 | 67-67-72-67 | 273 (-7) | $513,300 |
|
6/1 – 6/4
|
The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday Muirfield Village Golf Club
|
3 | 74-73-68-67 | 282 (-6) | $1,380,000 |
|
6/15 – 6/18
|
Los Angeles Country Club
|
3 | 67-68-68-70 | 273 (-7) | $1,413,430 |
|
6/22 – 6/25
|
TPC River Highlands
|
T4 | 63-70-63-65 | 261 (-19) | $841,667 |
|
7/13 – 7/16
|
The Renaissance Club
|
T3 | 68-65-67-70 | 270 (-10) | $468,450 |
|
7/20 – 7/23
|
Royal Liverpool GC
|
T23 | 70-75-72-67 | 284 (E) | $121,500 |
|
8/10 – 8/13
|
TPC Southwind
|
T31 | 67-66-71-70 | 274 (-6) | $116,000 |
|
8/17 – 8/20
|
Olympia Fields Country Club
|
T2 | 66-69-64-66 | 265 (-15) | $1,760,000 |
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