The John Deere Classic 2023 – Day 4 Betting Tip and Prediction

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The final round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run is wide open for the taking, with Brendon Todd leading by just one stroke at 16-under par. There are 14 players within four strokes of him, headlined by Adam Schenk, Denny McCarthy and Alex Smalley, just one shot behind at 15-under par.

We’ll provide a day four betting tip for a head-to-head matchup with one player in better form recently.

John Deere Classic Day 4 Prediction: Head-to-head Matchup

The following head-to-head matchup is for the 18 holes played during Sunday’s final round.

Alex Smalley over Brendon Todd (18 holes) @ 5/7 (-140)

Alex Smalley is finally showing the potential many golf analysts have been raving about for the past few months.

The 26-year-old has gotten comfortable on tour and has earned four top-25 finishes in his past seven events, including a tie for ninth at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago. He’s played a lot better as of late than Todd, who has two missed cuts and a withdrawal in three of his past six tournaments, with his highest finish over that span being a T34 at the RBC Canadian Open.

Smalley has also been on fire in terms of strokes gained (approach).

Over his last 16 rounds, Alex Smalley is gaining the second-most strokes on Approach on Tour at 1.54 per round behind only Scottie Scheffler who is at 2.03.

The 5.9 he gained on approach on Saturday was the third most in a single round on Tour over the last two years.… pic.twitter.com/37twJk01ep

— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) July 9, 2023

Todd might have a slightly better final-round scoring average, but that’s primarily due to the fall portion of the season when the stakes are lower. Over their previous five events, where both played in the final round, Smalley has performed better in each of the last three and holds a 3-1-1 record.

Smalley vs. Todd in final rounds (past five)

Tournament	Smalley’s score	Todd’s score
Rocket Mortgage Classic	71	72
RBC Canadian Open	67	72
Charles Schwab Challenge	72	74
Wells Fargo Championship	71	71
The Players Championship	74	69

The Duke product, Smalley, has also finished higher than the former Georgia Bulldog, Todd, in four of the last five events (both didn’t reach the weekend at the Memorial).

Unibet’s 5/7 (-140) odds are great when comparing where the two players are performance-wise at this point in the season. It’ll be interesting to see how they perform with Todd (first) currently one spot ahead of Smalley (T2) on the leaderboard.

It’s important to remember that both players are professionals, and anything can happen over the course of 18 holes despite one being in better form.

For their complete results this season, take a look at the stats below.

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