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Max Homa began the 2022-2023 season with a win in the opener at the Fortinet Championship in September and triumphed again at the Farmers Insurance Open in January. He cooled off and endured a slump, including at three of the four majors but has recently regained his form with two top-10 finishes in his past two starts.
Friday at the BMW Championship, he set the course record at Olympia Fields Country Club by firing an 8-under par 62 to take a two-stroke lead (10-under) at the playoff event.
Chris Kirk trails Homa by two strokes and sits in solo second. He’s followed by Open Champion Brian Harman (7-under) and Matt Fitzpatrick (7-under).
It should be a fun viewing experience this weekend, with the course set to dry out and become more challenging. We’ll provide one betting prediction in this article ahead of day three for a head-to-head matchup.
BMW Championship day 3 tip: H2H matchup (72 holes)
The following pick is for the entire 72 holes of the tournament.
Tom Kim over Jason Day @ 6/5 (+120)
Bet365’s matchups are usually extremely tight and not lopsided. The sportsbook’s plus money odds in favor of Tom Kim defeating Jason Day over the course of the entire BMW Championship certainly caught my eye.
The South Korean currently sits at 4-over in a tie for 43rd, one stroke behind the Aussie (3-over) in a tie for 40th.
Kim has been in much better form than Day as of late, finishing better in two of the last three tournaments. In the one tournament where he didn’t, they ended up tied for second at the Open Championship.
Leading up to this week, nine of Kim’s previous 12 rounds have been in the 60s compared to Day, with seven of his past 12 rounds in the 60s.
In the previous five events in which both participated, Kim finished with a 3-1-1 record against Day in terms of being higher on the leaderboard.
Past five shared events
| Tournament | Kim’s result | Day’s result |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | T24 | T52 |
| The Open Championship | T2 | T2 |
| Travelers Championship | T38 | T45 |
| U.S. Open | T8 | MC |
| The Memorial | MC | MC |
Olympia Fields Country Club plays similar to U.S. Open tracks. The first two days haven’t been as difficult, thanks to moisture and soft grounds due to the rain, but the course is expected to become more firm for the remaining 36 holes.
At the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club, Kim performed well, earning a tie for eighth with rounds of 73, 68, 66 and 69, whereas Day missed the cut after rounds of 73 and 76.
The 21-year-old, Kim, also has a slightly better actual scoring average than the 35-year-old.
Scoring average (actual)
- Kim: 69.38, ranked 10th
- Day: 69.44, ranked 12th
The Seoul, South Korea native has been playing excellent golf recently and has picked up strokes in five of his last six events. He’s also been T6 or better in two of his past three starts.
Kim’s true strokes gained total (last six events)
| Tournament | Kim’s true SG total |
| FedEx St. Jude Championship | +1.34 |
| The Open Championship | +3.41 |
| Genesis Scottish Open | +2.13 |
| Rocket Mortgage Classic | -1.29 |
| Travelers Championship | +0.97 |
| U.S. Open | +3.05 |
Day had been on a hot streak earlier this season and capped it off with a win at the Byron Nelson Championship. In his past six events since then, he’s only gained strokes in half of his starts.
Since the BMW Championship is a no-cut event, both players have a chance to bounce back this weekend. PGA Tour data analyst Ron Klos compiled the statistics for the players’ ceilings in the tweet below. Kim holds a slight advantage over Day in this category over the past 100 rounds.
With four guaranteed rounds in this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, a golfers ceiling becomes very important. While a player may have a poor round or two, if they have a spike performance in the other couple of rounds it can help boost their position up the leaderboard.… pic.twitter.com/qH94aeFOcC
— Ron Klos (@PGASplits101) August 9, 2023
With Kim in better form and being a course fit, I think there’s a decent chance he overtakes Day and earns a better finish.
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