BMW Championship 2023 day 1 betting tip and prediction

BMW Championship 2023 day 1 betting tip and prediction
Aug 12, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Rory McIlroy hits his tee shot on the seventh hole during the third round of the FedEx St. Jude Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports/Sipa USA - Photo by Icon Sport

These odds from Unibet were correct at the time of writing.

The second tournament of the PGA Tour’s FedEx Cup Playoffs begins Thursday, Aug. 17, at the BMW Championship hosted by Olympia Fields Country Club in Olympia Fields, Illinois.

The top 50 players remaining in the FedEx Cup Standings will battle for a $3.6 million dollar top individual prize and hope to position themselves well or qualify for next week’s Tour Championship. Only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup standings will reach next week’s finale at Eastlake in Atlanta.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the joint favorites at 15/2 (+750) to win this week, followed by Jon Rahm (9/1) and defending champion Patrick Cantlay (11/1).

World No. 4 Cantlay enters the event after nearly winning last week at the St. Jude Championship, where he lost to Lucas Glover on the first playoff hole after finding the water hazard on his drive. Glover is the hottest golfer entering the event after triumphs in back-to-back weeks and ranges from 35/1 to 50/1, depending on the sportsbook.

In this article, we’ll provide one betting prediction ahead of the first round regarding a tournament finish.

BMW Championship day 1 tip: Tournament finish

The following pick is for the entire tournament (all 72 holes).

Rory McIlroy to finish top 10 @ 8/11 (-137)

While most of the attention has been on world No. 1 Scheffler’s historic run of top 10s for a long stretch of this season, McIlroy has enjoyed his own streak of excellent results since May’s PGA Championship.

The world’s second-ranked player has gone eight events in a row finishing T9 or better, and has finished third or better in three of his last five starts.

McIlroy’s results this season

  • Events: 16
  • Wins: 3
  • Top 10s: 11
  • Top 10 percentage: 68.75% (11/16)

Finishing inside the top 10 nearly 70% of the time definitely makes him an enticing pick to do it again this week. McIlroy’s three victories this campaign came at the CJ Cup in South Carolina in October, the Dubai Desert Classic in late January, and most recently at the Genesis Scottish Open on July 16.

The Northern Irishman’s game fits Olympia Fields Country Club nicely, which caters to bombers and plays similar to U.S. Open tracks. At this year’s U.S. Open, McIlroy thrived and nearly took home the trophy coming in solo second, one stroke shy of champion Wyndham Clark.

In terms of true strokes gained, according to Data Golf, McIlroy has picked up an average of more than two strokes in his last eight events and has gained strokes in his past nine appearances, dating back to the Wells Fargo Championship in early May.

With the Northern Irishman’s ability to take on any course, recent form and FedEx Cup Playoff history, the 8/11 (-137) odds provided by Unibet for McIlroy to end inside the top 10 definitely hold value.

Despite this field being extremely tough, there are only 50 players competing. All McIlroy has to do is finish inside the top 20th percentile of players in order to cash the bet. This season, he’s been doing it in events containing fields of 156 golfers, including at three of the four majors and three elevated events.

The 34-year-old’s full tournament logs and scorecards are below, courtesy of ESPN.

McIlroy’s 2022-23 PGA TOUR Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
10/20 – 10/23
166-67-67-67267 (-17)$1,890,000
2/9 – 2/12

WM Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale (Stadium Course)
T3273-67-70-70280 (-4)$109,286
2/16 – 2/19

The Genesis Invitational

Riviera Country Club
T2967-69-73-71280 (-4)$134,000
3/2 – 3/5

Arnold Palmer Invitational pres. by Mastercard

Arnold Palmer’s Bay Hill Club & Lodge
T273-69-68-70280 (-8)$1,780,000
3/9 – 3/12

THE PLAYERS Championship

TPC Sawgrass (THE PLAYERS Stadium Course)
Missed Cut76-73149 (+5)
4/6 – 4/9

Masters Tournament

Augusta National Golf Club
Missed Cut72-77149 (+5)
5/4 – 5/7

Wells Fargo Championship

Quail Hollow Club
T4768-73-71-72284 (E)$51,222
5/18 – 5/21

PGA Championship

Oak Hill Country Club
T771-69-69-69278 (-2)$555,000
6/1 – 6/4

The Memorial Tournament pres. by Workday

Muirfield Village Golf Club
T772-68-70-75285 (-3)$650,000
6/8 – 6/11

RBC Canadian Open

Oakdale Golf & Country Club
T971-67-66-72276 (-12)$245,250
6/15 – 6/18

U.S. Open

Los Angeles Country Club
265-67-69-70271 (-9)$2,160,000
6/22 – 6/25

Travelers Championship

TPC River Highlands
T768-64-66-64262 (-18)$650,000
7/13 – 7/16

Genesis Scottish Open

The Renaissance Club
164-66-67-68265 (-15)$1,575,000
7/20 – 7/23

The Open

Royal Liverpool GC
T671-70-69-68278 (-6)$551,250
8/10 – 8/13
T367-66-68-65266 (-14)$1,160,000
McIlroy’s 2022-23 DP World Tournaments (H/T ESPN)
1/26 – 1/30

Dubai Desert Classic

Emirates Golf Club
166-70-65-68269 (-19)

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